Before you lay a bunch of hard-earned bankroll on Buffalo and Tampa to win outright, know this: underdogs do not usually win on Conference Championship weekend.
True New England and the Rams each won at the end of the 2018 season, but in five other seasons before and after, the home teams won every time. And they rewarded bettors at a 10-4 ATS clip as well.
So with the Bucs and Bills being playoff newbies, you have to wonder if the small spreads are too good to pass up on seasoned playoff workhorses Kansas City and Green Bay. Of course, there is the small issue of KC failing to cover nine straight spreads and the issue of Patrick Mahomes concussion.
Regardless, there are some Conference championships betting trends of note as we get ready to select the Super Bowl 55 combatants.
NFL Conference Championship Betting Trends
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs – KC -3, Total 54 | Matchup Report
The Bills have been awesome for fans and bettors, riding a 9-1 ATS streak in their past 10. KC, as mentioned earlier, are bleeding money at 0-8-1 ATS their past nine. The Bills have no playoff history since the 1990s, while KC’s dominance is recent. Maybe the UNDER?
UNDER is 10-3 Buffalo’s last 13 games at Kansas City
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers – GB -3.5, Total 51 | Matchup Report
Since 1980, Tampa Bay has played at Lambeau 16 times, and lost 15 times. So, betting against the Packers here means you foresee a repeat of Sept. 25, 2005, when Brian Griese threw two TDs to Joey Galloway while Brett Favre tossed three INTs. The final was 17-16.
Tampa has been a playoff road dog twice in the NFC title game and covered both times (winning in 2002 in Philly and covering in 1999 at the Rams). Meanwhile, the Packers have been stomped the past two trips to the NFC title game (2019 and 2016), but both of those games were on the road.
Packers are 15-1 SU in their last 16 games at home against Tampa Bay.
Bucs have won seven straight and 11 of 13 on the road
Bucs 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Sunday road games
Packers are 12-1 SU, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 Sunday home games
Packers are 7-2 ATS past 9 playoff games
Packers have played six straight playoff OVERs since 2017