Sep 19, 2021; Baltimore, Maryland, USA;  Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) flips into the end zone for  a fourth quarter touchdown  against the Kansas City Chiefs at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Championship Betting Trends

Kansas City and San Francisco are back in the conference championship games ahead of Super Bowl 58 but the trends lean against both them covering the spread.

The Chiefs are 3.5-point underdogs at Baltimore, a team with a sketchy playoff past but a defensively dominant present that may make the Ravens a gift at -3.5. Meanwhile the 49ers have failed to cover six straight at home against a Detroit Lions team that boasts lots of road and underdog angles as they catch 7.5 points.

However, the Lions have never won as a playoff underdog while the Ravens have never played a playoff OVER in 8 games as home chalk since 1995. Check out the NFL conference championship betting trends before getting your action down this weekend.

Kansas City @ Baltimore -3.5, Total 44.5 | Matchup Report

Chiefs are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games as the underdog.

Ravens are 10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as the favorite

Ravens are 3-12 SU in their last 15 games played in January.

Chiefs are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games played in January

UNDER is 11-4 Kansas City’s last 15 games.

UNDER is 13-4 Kansas City’s last 17 conference games

Ravens UNDER 7-0-1 as home playoff chalk since 1995

Detroit @ San Francisco -7, Total 51 | Matchup Report

Lions have never won as a playoff underdog (0-7 SU, 1-5-1 ATS)

49ers are 16-4 SU as home playoff favorite since 1990

49ers are 13-0 SU at home to Detroit since losing 28-17 Nov. 2, 1975

Lions are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games

Lions are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games on the road.

Lions are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 conference games

Lions have won 6 straight January games, 5-1 ATS

Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as the underdog.

49ers are 0-6 ATS past 6 home games

49ers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games played in January.

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Archived NFL conference championship betting trends article from Jan. 23, 2023

Conference championship weekend carries a sense of déjà vu with three of the same four teams battling for a trip to Super Bowl 57.

Cincinnati opened as small dogs in Kansas City where the AFC line will move during the week as medical reports on Patrick Mahomes’ ankle sprain emerge. And San Francisco opened as small road dogs in Philadelphia (they were in LA last year to face the Rams) where the Eagles host the NFC title game.

The Conference Championship betting trends point heavily to dog and UNDER in both games, but all four teams boast explosive offenses so betting will be all over the map.

NFC Championship betting trends

San Francisco @ Philadelphia -2.5, Total 45.5 | Matchup Stats

49ers have won 12 straight games, 10-2 ATS

Eagles are 19-2 SU in their last 21 games as the favorite.

Eagles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against San Francisco.

49ers have covered 9 straight conference games and are 19-3 ATS in their last 22 games

49ers are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games played in January.

UNDER is 18-5 Philadelphia’s last 23 games played in January.

49ers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as the underdog.

Eagles played 5 straight playoff UNDERs since winning Super Bowl 53

UNDER is 10-1 past 11 Eagles playoff home games

UNDER is 9-2 past 11 49ers playoff games

49ers are 7-1 ATS past 8 playoff games

49ers played 7 straight playoff road UNDERs

AFC Championship betting trends

Cincinnati @ Kansas City -1, Total 47.5 | Matchup Stats

UNDER is 9-1 past 10 Cincinnati playoff games

Chiefs are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games as the favorite

Bengals are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games.

Bengals are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games against Kansas City.

UNDER is 11-3 past 14 meetings of Chiefs and Cincy

Bengals are 19-5-1 ATS in their last 25 games vs AFC West teams

Chiefs are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 divisional games

If Bengals close as underdogs, they have covered 9 straight and 17-5 ATS past 22 times when catching points.

Bengals have played 7 straight UNDERs when underdog and 12-2 ATS

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Archived NFL Championship Game Betting trends article from Jan. 24, 2022

If you thought Divisional Weekend was unpredictable, good luck pegging either the AFC or NFC title game based on recent trend history.

We looked at home teams, who are 13-5 SU the past nine seasons, but that streak doesn’t hold up recently (4-4 SU and ATS the past four seasons). We looked for  angles based on underdog status, and it deadlocked as well – a perfect 5-5 ATS past five seasons.

So as Kansas City hosts Cincinnati and the LA Rams host divisional rival San Francisco, we need to dig deeper – or into more recent data – to find meaningful clues. Something like Kansas City’s impressive run at home and as a favorite (7 points as of Monday at FanDuel Sportsbook). Or something like  the 49ers awesome streak in January and as an underdog (+3.5 as of Monday at Draft Kings Sportsbook).

See what the database has produced and check out the betting specials and terrific bonuses at our sportsbook sponsors.

Bengals at Chiefs -7, Total 54.5 | Matchup Report

The Bengals are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games against Kansas City, and while some of that streak is ancient history, some of it is super fresh (4 weeks ago when Cincy upset KC). Will playoff jitters affect the Bengals this time? They were good and lucky at Tennessee and can’t count on luck against the Chiefs, so they better be very good.

Chiefs won 7 straight playoff home games, 6-1 ATS

UNDER is 9-2 Cincinnati’s last 11 games played in January.

UNDER is 9-3 Cincinnati’s last 12 games against Kansas City.

Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road.

Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.

Chiefs won 8 in a row at home, covered past 6.

Chiefs 9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS last 10 games as the favorite

NFC Championship Trends

49ers at Rams -3.5, Total 46.5 | Matchup Report

San Francisco has always been a money maker for bettors in January and they have covered 9 straight and 16-4-1 ATS in 21 games during January. There are UNDER trends for both teams here.

49ers played UNDER in 6 straight playoff road games (9-1 past 10)

49ers 5-1 ATS past 6 games at Rams

49ers covered 9 straight games in January, 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games played in this month.

49ers just are 2-5 SU in their last 7 divisional games

49ers are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as the underdog

Rams are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against San Francisco.

UNDER is 16-6 LA Rams’ last 22 games at home.

Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Sunday home games

Check out the current odds and playoff bonus offers for new players at FanDuel.

Archived NFL conference championship betting trends article from Jan. 24, 2021

With the Bucs and Bills being playoff newbies, you have to wonder if the small spreads are too good to pass up on seasoned playoff workhorses Kansas City and Green Bay. Of course, there is the small issue of KC failing to cover nine straight spreads and the issue of Patrick Mahomes concussion.

Regardless, there are some Conference championships betting trends of note as we get ready to select the Super Bowl 55 combatants.

NFL Conference Championship Betting Trends

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs – KC -3, Total 54 | Matchup Report

The Bills have been awesome for fans and bettors, riding a 9-1 ATS streak in their past 10. KC, as mentioned earlier, are bleeding money at 0-8-1 ATS their past nine. The Bills have no playoff history since the 1990s, while KC’s dominance is recent. Maybe the UNDER?

UNDER is 10-3 Buffalo’s last 13 games at Kansas City

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers – GB -3.5, Total 51 | Matchup Report

Since 1980, Tampa Bay has played at Lambeau 16 times, and lost 15 times. So, betting against the Packers here means you foresee a repeat of Sept. 25, 2005, when Brian Griese threw two TDs to Joey Galloway while Brett Favre tossed three INTs. The final was 17-16.

Tampa has been a playoff road dog twice in the NFC title game and covered both times (winning in 2002 in Philly and covering in 1999 at the Rams). Meanwhile, the Packers have been stomped the past two trips to the NFC title game (2019 and 2016), but both of those games were on the road.

Packers are 15-1 SU in their last 16 games at home against Tampa Bay.

Bucs have won seven straight and 11 of 13 on the road

Bucs 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Sunday road games

Packers are 12-1 SU, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 Sunday home games

Packers are 7-2 ATS past 9 playoff games

Packers have played six straight playoff OVERs since 2017

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.

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