Do we have a rematch of Super Bowl 57 shaping up between the Chiefs and Eagles? Or maybe a repeat of Super Bowl 26 when Washington defeated the Bills?
Its Conference Championship weekend and trends suggest we are more likely to see the first rematch (since Buffalo has won just twice as a playoff dog since 1980), as Kansas City and Philadelphia ride impressive streaks into these games. The Chiefs have won 17 straight SU as favorites and they opened as 2-point home chalk, while the Eagles almost always win at home and almost always beat the Commanders (12-4 SU).
There is a compelling UNDER trend when the Eagles play in January and plenty of Buffalo OVER trends.
Washington @ Philadelphia -5.5, Total 48 | Matchup Report
Commanders are 11-2 SU in their last 13 conference games
Commanders are 5-1 SU past 6 road games
OVER is 8-3 past 11 meetings
Eagles 14-1 SU past 15 games
Eagles are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games against Washington.
Eagles 8-3 ATS past 11 games
Eagles 3-7 ATS past 10 playoff games as favorites
Eagles won 9 straight and 19-4 SU in their last 23 games at home.
UNDER is 20-4 Philadelphia’s last 24 games played in January.
Buffalo @ Kansas City -2, Total 48 | Matchup Report
Bills have won just twice as a playoff dog since 1980 – last week and in 1993 @ Pittsburgh
Chiefs won 12 straight at home (1-5 ATS past 6) and 17-0 SU as favorites
Bills are 21-5 SU in their last 26 games.
OVER is 5-1 past 6 Buffalo road games
Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games at Kansas City
OVER is 8-3 past 11 Buffalo January games
OVER is 12-5 Buffalo’s last 17 games as the underdog
UNDER is 9-2 Kansas City’s last 11 games played in January.
Chiefs played 5 straight UNDERs as playoff home chalk
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Archived NFL conference championship betting trends article rom Jan. 24, 2024
Kansas City and San Francisco are back in the conference championship games ahead of Super Bowl 58 but the trends lean against both them covering the spread.
The Chiefs are 3.5-point underdogs at Baltimore, a team with a sketchy playoff past but a defensively dominant present that may make the Ravens a gift at -3.5. Meanwhile the 49ers have failed to cover six straight at home against a Detroit Lions team that boasts lots of road and underdog angles as they catch 7.5 points.
However, the Lions have never won as a playoff underdog while the Ravens have never played a playoff OVER in 8 games as home chalk since 1995. Check out the NFL conference championship betting trends before getting your action down this weekend.
Kansas City @ Baltimore -3.5, Total 44.5 | Matchup Report
Chiefs are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games as the underdog.
Ravens are 10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as the favorite
Ravens are 3-12 SU in their last 15 games played in January.
Chiefs are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games played in January
UNDER is 11-4 Kansas City’s last 15 games.
UNDER is 13-4 Kansas City’s last 17 conference games
Ravens UNDER 7-0-1 as home playoff chalk since 1995
Detroit @ San Francisco -7, Total 51 | Matchup Report
Lions have never won as a playoff underdog (0-7 SU, 1-5-1 ATS)
49ers are 16-4 SU as home playoff favorite since 1990
49ers are 13-0 SU at home to Detroit since losing 28-17 Nov. 2, 1975
Lions are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games
Lions are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games on the road.
Lions are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 conference games
Lions have won 6 straight January games, 5-1 ATS
Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as the underdog.
49ers are 0-6 ATS past 6 home games
49ers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games played in January.
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Archived NFL conference championship betting trends article from Jan. 23, 2023
Conference championship weekend carries a sense of déjà vu with three of the same four teams battling for a trip to Super Bowl 57.
Cincinnati opened as small dogs in Kansas City where the AFC line will move during the week as medical reports on Patrick Mahomes’ ankle sprain emerge. And San Francisco opened as small road dogs in Philadelphia (they were in LA last year to face the Rams) where the Eagles host the NFC title game.
The Conference Championship betting trends point heavily to dog and UNDER in both games, but all four teams boast explosive offenses so betting will be all over the map.
NFC Championship betting trends
San Francisco @ Philadelphia -2.5, Total 45.5 | Matchup Stats
49ers have won 12 straight games, 10-2 ATS
Eagles are 19-2 SU in their last 21 games as the favorite.
Eagles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against San Francisco.
49ers have covered 9 straight conference games and are 19-3 ATS in their last 22 games
49ers are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games played in January.
UNDER is 18-5 Philadelphia’s last 23 games played in January.
49ers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as the underdog.
Eagles played 5 straight playoff UNDERs since winning Super Bowl 53
UNDER is 10-1 past 11 Eagles playoff home games
UNDER is 9-2 past 11 49ers playoff games
49ers are 7-1 ATS past 8 playoff games
49ers played 7 straight playoff road UNDERs
AFC Championship betting trends
Cincinnati @ Kansas City -1, Total 47.5 | Matchup Stats
UNDER is 9-1 past 10 Cincinnati playoff games
Chiefs are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games as the favorite
Bengals are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games.
Bengals are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games against Kansas City.
UNDER is 11-3 past 14 meetings of Chiefs and Cincy
Bengals are 19-5-1 ATS in their last 25 games vs AFC West teams
Chiefs are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 divisional games
If Bengals close as underdogs, they have covered 9 straight and 17-5 ATS past 22 times when catching points.
Bengals have played 7 straight UNDERs when underdog and 12-2 ATS
