Jan 9, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) is tackled by Los Angeles Rams free safety Taylor Rapp (24) in the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Conference Championship Betting Trends

If you thought Divisional Weekend was unpredictable, good luck pegging either the AFC or NFC title game based on recent trend history.

We looked at home teams, who are 13-5 SU the past nine seasons, but that streak doesn’t hold up recently (4-4 SU and ATS the past four seasons). We looked for  angles based on underdog status, and it deadlocked as well – a perfect 5-5 ATS past five seasons.

So as Kansas City hosts Cincinnati and the LA Rams host divisional rival San Francisco, we need to dig deeper – or into more recent data – to find meaningful clues. Something like Kansas City’s impressive run at home and as a favorite (7 points as of Monday at FanDuel Sportsbook). Or something like  the 49ers awesome streak in January and as an underdog (+3.5 as of Monday at Draft Kings Sportsbook).

See what the database has produced and check out the betting specials and terrific bonuses at our sportsbook sponsors.

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AFC Championship Trends

Bengals at Chiefs -7, Total 54.5 | Matchup Report

The Bengals are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games against Kansas City, and while some of that streak is ancient history, some of it is super fresh (4 weeks ago when Cincy upset KC). Will playoff jitters affect the Bengals this time? They were good and lucky at Tennessee and can’t count on luck against the Chiefs, so they better be very good.

Chiefs won 7 straight playoff home games, 6-1 ATS

UNDER is 9-2 Cincinnati’s last 11 games played in January.

UNDER is 9-3 Cincinnati’s last 12 games against Kansas City.

Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road.

Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.

Chiefs won 8 in a row at home, covered past 6.

Chiefs 9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS last 10 games as the favorite

NFC Championship Trends

49ers at Rams -3.5, Total 46.5 | Matchup Report

San Francisco has always been a money maker for bettors in January and they have covered 9 straight and 16-4-1 ATS in 21 games during January. There are UNDER trends for both teams here.

49ers played UNDER in 6 straight playoff road games (9-1 past 10)

49ers 5-1 ATS past 6 games at Rams

49ers covered 9 straight games in January, 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games played in this month.

49ers just are 2-5 SU in their last 7 divisional games

49ers are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as the underdog

Rams are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against San Francisco.

UNDER is 16-6 LA Rams’ last 22 games at home.

Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Sunday home games

Check out the current odds and playoff bonus offers for new players at FanDuel.

Archived NFL conference championship betting trends article from Jan. 24, 2021

With the Bucs and Bills being playoff newbies, you have to wonder if the small spreads are too good to pass up on seasoned playoff workhorses Kansas City and Green Bay. Of course, there is the small issue of KC failing to cover nine straight spreads and the issue of Patrick Mahomes concussion.

Regardless, there are some Conference championships betting trends of note as we get ready to select the Super Bowl 55 combatants.

NFL Conference Championship Betting Trends

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs – KC -3, Total 54 | Matchup Report

The Bills have been awesome for fans and bettors, riding a 9-1 ATS streak in their past 10. KC, as mentioned earlier, are bleeding money at 0-8-1 ATS their past nine. The Bills have no playoff history since the 1990s, while KC’s dominance is recent. Maybe the UNDER?

UNDER is 10-3 Buffalo’s last 13 games at Kansas City

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers – GB -3.5, Total 51 | Matchup Report

Since 1980, Tampa Bay has played at Lambeau 16 times, and lost 15 times. So, betting against the Packers here means you foresee a repeat of Sept. 25, 2005, when Brian Griese threw two TDs to Joey Galloway while Brett Favre tossed three INTs. The final was 17-16.

Tampa has been a playoff road dog twice in the NFC title game and covered both times (winning in 2002 in Philly and covering in 1999 at the Rams). Meanwhile, the Packers have been stomped the past two trips to the NFC title game (2019 and 2016), but both of those games were on the road.

Packers are 15-1 SU in their last 16 games at home against Tampa Bay.

Bucs have won seven straight and 11 of 13 on the road

Bucs 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Sunday road games

Packers are 12-1 SU, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 Sunday home games

Packers are 7-2 ATS past 9 playoff games

Packers have played six straight playoff OVERs since 2017

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.

Title Game Trends

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Aug 11th, 7:00 PM

NY Giants +2 -110

New England -2 -110

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Aug 11th, 7:30 PM

Tennessee +2.5 -110

Baltimore -2.5 -110

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Aug 12th, 6:00 PM

Atlanta +2.5 -115

Detroit -2.5 -115

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Aug 12th, 7:00 PM

Cleveland +1.5 -110

Jacksonville -1.5 -110

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Aug 12th, 7:30 PM

NY Jets +1.5 -115

Philadelphia -1.5 -115

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Aug 12th, 7:30 PM

Arizona +2.5 -110

Cincinnati -2.5 -110

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Aug 12th, 8:30 PM

Green Bay +3 -110

San Francisco -3 -110

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Aug 13th, 1:00 PM

Kansas City +1 -110

Chicago -1 -110

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Aug 13th, 1:00 PM

Carolina +2.5 -110

Washington -2.5 -110

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Aug 13th, 4:00 PM

Indianapolis +3.5 -110

Buffalo -3.5 -110

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Aug 13th, 7:00 PM

Seattle +3 -110

Pittsburgh -3 -110

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Aug 13th, 7:30 PM

Miami -1 -110

Tampa Bay +1 -110

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Aug 13th, 8:00 PM

New Orleans -1 -110

Houston +1 -110

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Aug 13th, 9:00 PM

Dallas +2 -110

Denver -2 -110

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Aug 13th, 10:00 PM

LA Rams +2.5 -110

LA Chargers -2.5 -110

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Aug 14th, 4:25 PM

Minnesota +2.5 -110

Las Vegas -2.5 -110

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Aug 18th, 8:00 PM

Chicago

Seattle

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