Conference Championship OVER UNDER picks

We’re down to the final four in the NFL, with a quartet of prime contenders still alive to battle it out in the conference championship games this Sunday. Here are our picks against the spread as well as over/under selections.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

Total: 46.5

This is actually set up to be a low-scoring game. Neither quarterback has much experience in big spots, and Brock Purdy is a huge wild card. Plus there’s the Jalen Hurts injury and the fact both defenses are particularly strong at the areas that are particular strengths for their opponents.

The number is too high, but the spread is too low. It’s odd the Eagles aren’t getting a full field goal at home after demolishing the Giants last week. These teams are extremely closely matched, but Philly is back on track and the 49ers have a far bigger question mark at the sport’s most critical position.

Prediction: Eagles 23, 49ers 20 UNDER

Cincinnati Bengals (-1) at Kansas City Chiefs

Total: 47

This is obviously all about the Patrick Mahomes injury, but I’m not going under a total as low as 47 with these two offenses and I’m certainly not laying points against Mahomes and Andy Reid at Arrowhead in January.

Even if Mahomes isn’t 100 percent, you know he’ll play and that’s hard to bet against. The Chiefs lost to these Bengals in Kansas City last January, but that’s part of my rationale for taking K.C. straight-up here. Lightning is unlikely to strike twice, but 50-plus points have been scored in each of the last three meetings between these teams so look for something in the range of a shootout Sunday evening.

Prediction: Chiefs 28, Bengals 26 OVER

Archived NFL Conference Championship OVEER UNDER picks article from Jan. 26, 2022

And then there were four…

Kansas City escaped Divisional Playoff weekend as the lone returning team from the 2020 Final 4 and they are favored big against Cincinnati. The total is high – but is it high enough?

On the NFC side, the San Francisco 49ers and LA Rams meet for the third time this season. Stout defenses, good ground games – does this game shad to the UNDER?

Check out the midweek betting lines from FanDuel Sportsbook, which is offering a super playoff bonus offer for new customers, check it out. And read game pick articles for each game courtesy of Deeg (Chiefs vs Bengals) and Trend Dummy (Rams vs 49ers).

The Chiefs have scored 42 points in back-to-back playoff games, most recently against the league’s top-rated defense. They’re unstoppable right now, and while the Bengals offense isn’t close to as lethal as Kansas City’s, a unit loaded with talent could also benefit if star defensive back Tyrann Mathieu isn’t ready to return to the Chiefs defense.

In other words, 55 doesn’t look like a particularly tall task for these two teams. Heck, there’s a good chance the red-hot Chiefs push 40 again, in which case we should sail over before garbage time has even started in the event of a potential blowout.

These two teams combined for 65 points in a meeting earlier this month. It would be hard to confidently place money on them combining for 54 or fewer on Sunday.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (46.5): UNDER

The 49ers look as though they’ll have star offensive weapon Deebo Samuel despite a knee injury, but you wonder if that will hold him back at all against a strong defense that is quite familiar with Kyle Shanahan’s offense.

A similar sentiment exists with stalwart Rams left tackle Andrew Whitworth, who is trying to fight back from his own knee injury. And Whitworth’s replacement last weekend, Joe Noteboom, now has a pectoral injury.

That has the under looking solid.

These teams combined for 51 points when they met earlier this month, but 49ers games have since averaged 31.5 total points and the Rams defense smothered the division-rival Cardinals in their last game at this site. Watch for both teams to play it close to the vest in a low-scoring affair Sunday evening.

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Archived NFL Championship Game OVER UNDER picks article from Jan. 19, 2021

Maybe you’ve already made NFL conference championship picks on the spread, but haven’t decided on totals wagers. By focusing only on point spreads, moneylines or fantasy, you’re robbing yourself of potential opportunities to make money on over/unders.

Here’s a breakdown of the NFL Championship Game OVER UNDER picks this weekend.

2020 record: 38-33-3

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (51)

The Bucs offense has scored 30-plus points in five consecutive games while the Green Bay offense averaged a league-high 31.8 points per outing during the regular season. These teams combined for 62 points against two of the best defenses in the NFL last week, and now points should come a little easier than they did then.

So why is this total barely above 50?

Sure, the Tampa Bay defense put on a show against the New Orleans Saints, but Aaron Rodgers presents a very different challenge and the Bucs D has lacked consistency this season. After forcing four turnovers in New Orleans, the Buccaneers are unlikely to generate more than one takeaway against an offense that has committed just one turnover in its last seven games.

Look for this one to push into the 60s as both teams score frequently, with Ronald Jones II and Leonard Fournette taking advantage of Green Bay’s vulnerable run defense and Rodgers getting his against an all-or-nothing pass D.

BUFFALO BILLS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (53)

The Chiefs offense has averaged just 23.4 points per game the last seven weeks, and injuries to Patrick Mahomes and several other key offensive players could play a role Sunday against a Buffalo defense that has surrendered just 17.1 points per game since the team’s Week 11 bye.

Could Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and Co. light up the Kansas City D? It’s possible, but Chris Jones and Tyrann Mathieu should hold that group in check. The Chiefs have given up just 15.6 points per game in their last three meaningful home games (excluding Week 17, when they rested a lot of key starters), so it’s hard to see Buffalo putting up more than 24 or so on Sunday.

This one might reach the 50 mark but it’s still a lot more likely to fall short of 53 than to surpass that plateau. I’m expecting a result in the range of 27-24 Chiefs, so we’re leaning toward the under with a low-unit bet in this spot.