Maybe you’ve already made NFL conference championship picks on the spread, but haven’t decided on totals wagers. By focusing only on point spreads, moneylines or fantasy, you’re robbing yourself of potential opportunities to make money on over/unders.
Here’s a breakdown of the NFL Championship Game OVER UNDER picks this weekend.
2020 record: 38-33-3
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (51)
The Bucs offense has scored 30-plus points in five consecutive games while the Green Bay offense averaged a league-high 31.8 points per outing during the regular season. These teams combined for 62 points against two of the best defenses in the NFL last week, and now points should come a little easier than they did then.
So why is this total barely above 50?
Sure, the Tampa Bay defense put on a show against the New Orleans Saints, but Aaron Rodgers presents a very different challenge and the Bucs D has lacked consistency this season. After forcing four turnovers in New Orleans, the Buccaneers are unlikely to generate more than one takeaway against an offense that has committed just one turnover in its last seven games.
Look for this one to push into the 60s as both teams score frequently, with Ronald Jones II and Leonard Fournette taking advantage of Green Bay’s vulnerable run defense and Rodgers getting his against an all-or-nothing pass D.
BUFFALO BILLS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (53)
The Chiefs offense has averaged just 23.4 points per game the last seven weeks, and injuries to Patrick Mahomes and several other key offensive players could play a role Sunday against a Buffalo defense that has surrendered just 17.1 points per game since the team’s Week 11 bye.
Could Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and Co. light up the Kansas City D? It’s possible, but Chris Jones and Tyrann Mathieu should hold that group in check. The Chiefs have given up just 15.6 points per game in their last three meaningful home games (excluding Week 17, when they rested a lot of key starters), so it’s hard to see Buffalo putting up more than 24 or so on Sunday.
This one might reach the 50 mark but it’s still a lot more likely to fall short of 53 than to surpass that plateau. I’m expecting a result in the range of 27-24 Chiefs, so we’re leaning toward the under with a low-unit bet in this spot.