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NFL Defensive POY Odds

Aaron Donald again? Odds say yes

When a player has won three of the past four Defensive Player of Year awards and still in the prime of his career, it makes sense he would be favored to win again.

Enter Aaron Donald, the favorite to win this year at +500, according to FanDuel. Donald had arguably his best season last year, anchoring the top defense in the league. He finished the year with 13.5 sacks and 14 TFLs.

IS THIS MYLES GARRETT’S YEAR?

After missing two games last season with Covid-19, Myles Garrett is primed for a breakout year. He is heading into the season fully healthy and will have Jadeveon Clowney on the other side to help take the pressure off.

The Browns defense upgraded their secondary, adding John Johnson and Troy Hill. These additions should give Garrett more time to get after the quarterback. Garrett at +600 is the runner-up, right behind Donald. 

BOUNCEBACK TIME FOR NICK BOSA?

Nick Bosa only played two games last season after tearing his ACL in Week 3. He has been a full participant in 49ers practices this week and will be fully healthy to start the season. Bosa was a beast in his rookie season.

He had nine sacks and 16 TFLs and was the best player on the best defense in the league. Oddsmakers are high on him heading into the 2021 season, sitting with the fourth-best odds at +1100, according to FanDuel

TJ WATT’S REVENGE YEAR

It was a 50/50 split amongst the football world who should have won the 2020 defensive player of the year award. It was between TJ Watt and Aaron Donald, and Donald ultimately won the award. Watt enters the 2021 season with the third-best odds according to FanDuel at +750. 

2020 Article, Sept. 4, 2020

J.J Watt or Aaron Donald have won five out of the last eight Defensive Player of the Year awards and both are near the top of 2020 odds as well. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Donald is a big favorite at +700, while a pair of Watts and a pair of Bosas rank in the Top 5.

Aaron Donald is capable of elevating his play to surpass his stand-out 2018 season. It’s hard to believe that 2019 was considered a ‘down year’ when his stats equalled those of his 2017 Defensive POY season. Still, Patriots CB Stephon Gilmore won it a year ago, the first CB in more than a decade to claim the prize. Donald will have some help on the edge to take the pressure off as the Los Angeles Rams brought in Leonard Floyd. He was +200 last year entering the season (on the heels of consecutive wins) and for this reason, +700 represents excellent betting value.

Bosa or Bosa? Watt or Watt?

The 2019 Defensive Rookie of the Year will look to claim the ultimate defensive honor this season. Nick Bosa will be tasked with a larger workload this year, as the 49ers traded DeForest Buckner (nine sacks) to the Colts. Coming in at +1400 according to Sugarhouse is fantastic value for Bosa, considering he has the second best odds to win.

Run it back to 2016

The 2016 NFL DPOY will look to reclaim the honor. Khalil Mack slumped last season, posting his lowest sack numbers since his rookie season with only 8.5. He will benefit from an improved Bears defensive line, as big-ticket free agent Robert Quinn will look to take some pressure off him on the other side of the defensive line. Mack comes in at +1400 odds.

TJ Watt Time

It is just a matter of time before TJ Watt gets the respect he deserves. TJ has been in the shadow of his older brother since entering the league, and this may be the year he stands on his own. He has posted a combined 27.5 sacks the past two seasons, and he has yet to hit his ceiling. The Steelers defense is stacked this season, so he will have plenty of opportunity to shine. Coming in at +1400 odds according to Draft Kings Sportsbook, he may have the best chance to win just considering how dominant the Steelers defense should be this season.

What about JJ?

It’s crazy to think J.J Watt is only 31 years old. The three-time DPOY winner enters the 2020 season healthy and aiming to return to his dominant self. J.J has been decimated by injuries these past four seasons, only playing more than seven games twice, and played a full 16 games just once in that time span. If he can re-capture what he had in 2018 (16 sacks and 7 forced fumbles), J.J could be a serious threat to win the award. He will enter the season with +1400 odds.

Gilmore to repeat?

My darkhorse pick to win the award is none other than last year’s winner. Stephon Gilmore flies under the Defensive POY futures radar with +2500 odds. If New England is going to make a run, they will need Gilmore to continue his dominant play from last year. Oddsmakers are calculating that corners seldom win this award as linebackers and defensive ends often claim more glory and enjoy more hype.

Check out all the Defensive Player of  the Year future odds at BetRivers, below is a listing as of Sept. 3, 2020:

2020 Defensive Player of the Year Betting Odds (Aug. 30, 2020)

Donald, Aaron             +700

Bosa, Nick                   +1400

Mack, Khalil                +1400

Watt, J.J.                     +1400

Watt, TJ                       +1400

Bosa, Joey                  +2000

Garrett, Myles             +2000

Jones, Chandler          +2200

Miller, Von                   +2200

Gilmore, Stephon        +2500

Hunter, Danielle          +2500

Clowney, Jadeveon    +2800

Adams, Jamal             +3300

Barrett, Shaquil           +3300

Lawrence, Demarcus  +3300

Leonard, Darius          +3300

Wagner, Bobby           +3300

White, Tre’Davious      +3300

Buckner, DeForest      +4000

Chubb, Bradley           +4000

Fitzpatrick, Minkah      +4000

Jordan, Cameron        +4000

Mathieu, Tyrann          +4000

Ramsey, Jalen                        +4000

Campbell, Calais        +5000

Jones, Chris                +5000

Ngakoue, Yannick      +5000

Smith, Za’Darius         +5000

Brenden Deeg is from Ajax, Ontario and has been an NFL writer for over 5 years. Brenden has contributed to FanSided and 4th and Jawn. Brenden also played Defensive Line at York University, in Toronto Canada. Brenden is a Philadelphia Eagles fan, and active in the Philadelphia Eagles twitter community. You can follow his personal account here @ BrendenDeegNFP   He can reached at Brenden.Deeg@NationalFootballPost.com