NFL Divisional Playoff OVER UNDER picks

And then there were eight – as in, eight NFL teams left standing for a chance at Super Bowl. And behold, your NFL Divisional Playoff OVER UNDER picks from Gagnon for those convinced that betting totals is a safer bet than picking spreads.

There are two OVERs and two UNDERS, according to Gagnon this weekend. Now you just need to confirm which game is which.

Here’s a breakdown of the totals this weekend, watch for line movements during the week and check out bonus bets at FanDuel for live lines and special bonus perks for new customers.

Houston @ Kansas City 41.5 UNDER

The past 6 meetings have all played OVER but the Chiefs always play UNDER at home (20-7 run) and always on Saturday (13-4 run). Houston scored on the Chargers but won’t score on the Chiefs. We go UNDER.

Washington @ Detroit 55.5 UNDER

We keep expecting this line to get bet down but it’s staying high as of Tuesday. Both teams are dynamic and both teams take gambles. Those gambles don’t always pay off in a playoff game.

Both teams like to run it and the Commanders will rely on their stellar rookie QB who likes to run. Chew up the clock. We see 31-20. Play UNDER.

LA Rams @ Philadelphia 44 UNDER

In January, you bet the Eagles UNDER (20-3 past 23). In the playoffs when the Eagles are favored, you bet UNDER (15-4 past 19). When the Rams make the playoffs, you bet UNDER (4 straight times). Let’s bet UNDER.

Baltimore @ Buffalo 51.5 – OVER

Two Superman QBs, two terrific ground attacks, two teams that will trade blows to the final whistle. This could be 41-38.

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Archived NFL Divisional Playoff OVER UNDER picks article from Jan. 19 2023

GAME PICKS | JAX vs KC | NYG vs PHI | BUF vs CIN | DAL vs SF

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (53): UNDER

The Jags rarely have two big offensive outings in a row, while the Chiefs defense was sneaky solid in the second half of the season. I also think this could be a blowout in which Kansas City takes its foot off the pedal.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (48): UNDER

The Giants offense also rarely puts up two big scores in a row, and the Eagles defense could do some serious damage up front here. Throw in that the Philly offense is less than a guaranteed big night with the Jalen Hurts injury and this number is also too high.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (48.5): OVER

The Bengals are good for mid-20s minimum basically every week, and they’re the ‘dogs here. Buffalo’s sloppy offense also creates points by giving opponents short fields. This one should hit the 50s.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (46): OVER

The 49ers have put up 37 or more points in four consecutive outings, and we all know what the Dallas offense can do. Even if you’re unsure about the Brock Purdy situation, 46 is too low.

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Archived NFL Divisional Playoffs OVER UNDER picks article from Jan 21 2022

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (47.5): Over

With Tennessee’s offense finally just about healthy and Cincinnati’s offense always dangerous, this could easily become a shootout. Both defenses are middle-of-the-pack units, so it’s easy to see this one creeping into the 50s. Bet it now at FanDuel.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (47): Over

The Packers have been hitting the 30s pretty consistently, and their defense is somewhat vulnerable. Kyle Shanahan’s offense is also too good to be completely shut down, so I’m surprised this one isn’t at or above the 50 mark. Bet it now at FanDuel.

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (48.5): Under

Both teams are dealing with offensive line injuries which could keep both units from producing to the best of their abilities. That might be baked into this spread to an extent, but it’s still a little too high. We know how much talent both teams have on defense, and the Bucs have surrendered just 14.2 points per game the last five weeks. Bet it now at Draft Kings.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (54.5): Under

I think we’re underestimating both defenses here. That’s understandable because Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are such forces, but the Bills had the league’s top-ranked scoring defense this season and the Chiefs surrendered a league-low 16.1 points per game from November onward. This number is way too high. Bet it now at Draft Kings.

Archived NFL Divisional Playoff Over Under picks article from Jan. 12, 2021

2020 record: 36-31-3

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (45.5)

On one hand, the Rams have the league’s top-rated scoring defense. On the other hand, superstar defensive lineman Aaron Donald is dealing with a rib injury and the Packers have the league’s highest-scoring offense.

That being the case, this total feels low. Cam Akers should have plenty of opportunities to keep the Los Angeles offense afloat against a mediocre run defense while likely MVP Aaron Rodgers will eventually get his as part of an offense that scored 30-plus points in 12 of its 16 games this season.

BALTIMORE RAVENS AT BUFFALO BILLS (50)

Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen both look pretty close to unstoppable right now. The Ravens averaged 37.2 points per game in the final five weeks of the regular season, while the Bills averaged 40.4 during the same stretch.

I’m not saying that means this will contain 78 points, but I wouldn’t bet on it containing fewer than 50.

CLEVELAND BROWNS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (56)

On the surface, this total feels far too high considering that the heavily-favored Chiefs haven’t scored more than 33 points in a game since Week 11. But the Browns offense is completely erratic, and this might be a spot in which the Chiefs explode on two/three weeks’ rest against a mediocre defense.

This one could easily wind up in the 60s, but it’s much more likely to max out with a score in the range of 31-20 Chiefs. I would avoid betting on it either way.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (52)

The Saints scored 72 points in their two regular-season matchups with the Bucs, who themselves have scored more than 30 points in each of their last four outings. Both defenses are very good, but that could actually help the total because they’re opportunistic enough to create some short fields for Tom Brady or Drew Brees.

I think both teams score 30-plus here as this one coasts over the total.