Oct 30, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; Chicago Bears safety Eddie Jackson (4) runs the ball for a first down in the second quarter against the Chicago Bears at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Divisional Playoff OVER UNDER picks

And then there were eight – as in, eight NFL teams left standing for a chance at Super Bowl 56. And behold, your NFL Divisional Playoff OVER UNDER picks from Gagnon for those convinced that betting totals is a safer bet than picking spreads.

There are two OVERs and two UNDERS, according to Gagnon this weekend. Now you just need to confirm which game is which.

Here’s a breakdown of the totals this weekend, watch for line movements during the week and check out bonus bets at Draft Kings  and FanDuel for live lines and special bonus perks for new customers.


Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (53): UNDER

The Jags rarely have two big offensive outings in a row, while the Chiefs defense was sneaky solid in the second half of the season. I also think this could be a blowout in which Kansas City takes its foot off the pedal.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (48): UNDER

The Giants offense also rarely puts up two big scores in a row, and the Eagles defense could do some serious damage up front here. Throw in that the Philly offense is less than a guaranteed big night with the Jalen Hurts injury and this number is also too high.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (48.5): OVER

The Bengals are good for mid-20s minimum basically every week, and they’re the ‘dogs here. Buffalo’s sloppy offense also creates points by giving opponents short fields. This one should hit the 50s.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (46): OVER

The 49ers have put up 37 or more points in four consecutive outings, and we all know what the Dallas offense can do. Even if you’re unsure about the Brock Purdy situation, 46 is too low.



Archived NFL Divisional Playoffs OVER UNDER picks article from Jan 21 2022

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (47.5): Over

With Tennessee’s offense finally just about healthy and Cincinnati’s offense always dangerous, this could easily become a shootout. Both defenses are middle-of-the-pack units, so it’s easy to see this one creeping into the 50s. Bet it now at FanDuel.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (47): Over

The Packers have been hitting the 30s pretty consistently, and their defense is somewhat vulnerable. Kyle Shanahan’s offense is also too good to be completely shut down, so I’m surprised this one isn’t at or above the 50 mark. Bet it now at FanDuel.

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (48.5): Under

Both teams are dealing with offensive line injuries which could keep both units from producing to the best of their abilities. That might be baked into this spread to an extent, but it’s still a little too high. We know how much talent both teams have on defense, and the Bucs have surrendered just 14.2 points per game the last five weeks. Bet it now at Draft Kings.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (54.5): Under

I think we’re underestimating both defenses here. That’s understandable because Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are such forces, but the Bills had the league’s top-ranked scoring defense this season and the Chiefs surrendered a league-low 16.1 points per game from November onward. This number is way too high. Bet it now at Draft Kings.

Draft Kings sportsbook

Rated 5/5

100% BONUS UP TO $1000

A pioneer in the sports betting space, one of just three wagering partners hand-picked by the NFL and a lively mobile product full of great odds and betting variety. Check out Draft Kings today.

NFL Divisional Playoff OVER UNDER picks

Archived NFL Divisional Playoff Over Under picks article from Jan. 12, 2021

2020 record: 36-31-3


On one hand, the Rams have the league’s top-rated scoring defense. On the other hand, superstar defensive lineman Aaron Donald is dealing with a rib injury and the Packers have the league’s highest-scoring offense.

That being the case, this total feels low. Cam Akers should have plenty of opportunities to keep the Los Angeles offense afloat against a mediocre run defense while likely MVP Aaron Rodgers will eventually get his as part of an offense that scored 30-plus points in 12 of its 16 games this season.


Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen both look pretty close to unstoppable right now. The Ravens averaged 37.2 points per game in the final five weeks of the regular season, while the Bills averaged 40.4 during the same stretch.

I’m not saying that means this will contain 78 points, but I wouldn’t bet on it containing fewer than 50.


On the surface, this total feels far too high considering that the heavily-favored Chiefs haven’t scored more than 33 points in a game since Week 11. But the Browns offense is completely erratic, and this might be a spot in which the Chiefs explode on two/three weeks’ rest against a mediocre defense.

This one could easily wind up in the 60s, but it’s much more likely to max out with a score in the range of 31-20 Chiefs. I would avoid betting on it either way.


The Saints scored 72 points in their two regular-season matchups with the Bucs, who themselves have scored more than 30 points in each of their last four outings. Both defenses are very good, but that could actually help the total because they’re opportunistic enough to create some short fields for Tom Brady or Drew Brees.

I think both teams score 30-plus here as this one coasts over the total.

Brad Gagnon has been passionate about both sports and mass media since he was in diapers -- a passion that won't die until he's in them again. He was a lead contributor to an earlier incarnation of NationalFootballPost.com and was happy to return when new management revived the brand in 2020. Based in Toronto, he's covered the NFL since 2008 and has been a national NFL writer at Bleacher Report since 2012. He despises all 32 NFL teams equally but remains a fan of the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He can be reached at Brad@NationalFootballPost.com

Bet Now!

Rated 5/5

Upcoming Games

Dec 7th, 8:15 PM

New England +6.5 -110

Pittsburgh -6.5 -110


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

Detroit -5.5 -116

Chicago +5.5 -116


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

Carolina +6.5 -103

New Orleans -6.5 -103


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

Tampa Bay +2.5 -106

Atlanta -2.5 -106


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

LA Rams +6.5 -118

Baltimore -6.5 -118


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

Indianapolis -0.5 -110

Cincinnati +0.5 -110


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

Jacksonville -2.5 -115

Cleveland +2.5 -115


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

Houston -5.5 -115

NY Jets +5.5 -115


Dec 10th, 4:05 PM

Minnesota +0.5 -115

Las Vegas -0.5 -115


Dec 10th, 4:05 PM

Seattle +10.5 -108

San Francisco -10.5 -108


Dec 10th, 4:25 PM

Buffalo +2.5 -125

Kansas City -2.5 -125


Dec 10th, 4:25 PM

Denver +3.5 +103

LA Chargers -3.5 +103


Dec 10th, 8:20 PM

Philadelphia +1.5 -110

Dallas -1.5 -110


Dec 11th, 8:15 PM

Tennessee +11.5 -111

Miami -11.5 -111


Dec 11th, 8:15 PM

Green Bay -5.5 -102

NY Giants +5.5 -102


Dec 14th, 8:15 PM

LA Chargers

Las Vegas