Five of the eight remaining teams were here last year and we like the chalk in all four games this year.
Check out the line moves and bonus bets specials at FanDuel and see the betting trends on these matchups too.
Texans @ Chiefs -8.5
Houston is not a great team and got lucky when the Chargers shit the bed last week. Kansas City is a different animal and they will punish mistakes. This is a big number but the Chiefs have won 16 straight SU as chalk and covered six straight playoff games.
This could be a grind but KC does the grinding – 24-10 KC.
Commanders @ Lions -9.5
This is another big number but this season is already a success for Washington and they will get pulverized by a Detroit team hungry for a Super Bowl berth.
In addition, all the situational trends favor the Lions as they get a little healthier with the bye week. Play Detroit.
Rams @ Eagles -6
This could be another grind and the Eagles have a long history of covering the Rams (16-4-1 ATS past 21 times). The Rams have been a toothy underdog but are overmatched here. Call it 26-13 Eagles.
Ravens @ Bills +1
Buffalo opened as a small home dog, a playoff rarity, and they are 18-3 SU past 21 times as home favorites. However, despite their lack of playoff success SU, the Ravens are 14-5 ATS since 2001 as playoff road team.
As a road favorite since 2001, they have won and covered all three times. This game should be a screamer and decided on a last-second field goal, probably by Justin Tucker of Baltimore.
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Archived NFL Divisional Playoff Picks article from Jan. 20, 2023
Still well above .500 entering the NFL divisional playoffs, here are four fresh takes for arguably the best weekend of the year. Here are the NFL Divisional picks, with a pair of big home favorites and a pair of small road dogs.
Lines are as of Friday Jan. 20 at FanDuel Sportsbook watch for late line moves for any injury updates that may affect your wager.
OVER UNDER Picks | JAX vs KC | NYG vs PHI | BUF vs CIN | DAL vs SF
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-9): CHIEFS
I think the Jags won their Super Bowl last Saturday night against the Chargers. Now, they’re on the road against the inevitable MVP and Andy Reid with two weeks to prepare. It’s a bad recipe. Kansas City by double digits easily.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5): EAGLES
The hook scares me in a divisional game with Jalen Hurts less than 100 percent, so I’d buy that back if you can at a reasonable rate. Still, the blowout potential exists after Philly dominated in the regular season. Remember, these Giants had a negative scoring margin this year. They might hit a wall.
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-5.5): BENGALS
I just don’t trust the Bills, who have turned the ball over six times in their last two games and cut it way too close against Miami twice in the last month. Cincinnati has just one six-plus-point loss all year, and that came nearly three months ago.
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-4): COWBOYS
I’m not laying more than a field goal with a team quarterbacked by a rookie seventh-round pick. There’s too much of a risk the slipper comes off of Brock Purdy, and Dallas looked damn good last week. This feels like a field-goal game.