What To Look For - Week 17

NFL Most Passing Yards Odds

QB Passing Futures

If you find a prop bet that asks whether the 2019 NFL passing yards leader will repeat the feat in 2020, you can pretty much guarantee yourself a win.

Why? Last year’s leader doesn’t even have a starting job in 2020. Tampa Bay’s Jameis Winston surprised everyone by leading the league with 5,109 passing yards, but we all know what happened when Tom Brady decided he might want to become a Buc. Winston was shown the door and is now the backup quarterback for the New Orleans Saints.

Who is favored to have most passing yards in 2020?

Predictably, the Super Bowl MVP (and favorite to win NFL MVP in 2020) has the best odds in most passing yards futures over at SugarLand and BetRivers Illinois. Patrick Mahomes will open the season at +400, a year after passing for 4,031 yards in 14 games. With weapons at his disposal, such as Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, Mahomes should put up huge passing numbers this season.

Mahomes aims to break a stranglehold that four QBs have held on this category the past eight years. Before Winston’s surprise last season, the NFL passing leader in the previous eight seasons had the last name Roethlisberger, Brady, Brees or Manning. Those four dominated passing in the league during that span. Despite that, you’ll only find one of those names in the Top 5 on the most passing yards futures odds at SugarLand

Other QBs in the mix?

Following Mahomes on the odds list at SugarLand is the Atlanta Falcons’ Matt Ryan at +500, the Los Angeles Rams’ Jared Goff at +700 and the Dallas Cowboys’ Dak Prescott at +800.

Ryan finished fifth in passing yards last season with 4,466 yards in 15 games. Even after signing Todd Gurley as a reclamation project, the Falcons should be a pass-heavy offense again this year led by Ryan, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley.

Goff was third in the league in passing last season with 4,638 yards in 16 games. He actually had a lower yards per game average than Ryan, but finished ahead of him due to the extra game.

Prescott may be a smart pick for bettors at +800. Last season Prescott finished second behind Winston with 4,902 passing yards in 16 games. He was one of three starting quarterbacks to average more than 300 passing yards per game last season. Prescott is blessed with a bounty of passing targets with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and the newly drafted CeeDee Lamb, which could mean even bigger numbers in 2020.

Where is Tom Brady on the passing yards prop list?

After Prescott, one of the aforementioned regular passing leaders finally shows up with Brady at +900. Brady finished seventh in passing last season with 4,057 yards in 16 games. That was his lowest total in a 16-game season since 2010. Brady, who led the league in passing in 2016, could sees his numbers jump considerably this season after moving to Tampa Bay. His receiver options are greatly improved thanks to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski. Expect some vintage Brady numbers if you think he war off Father Time even longer.

The rest of the Top 10 on the odds list at SugarLand include Matt Stafford (+1400), Ben Roethlisberger (+2000), DeShaun Watson (+2000), Philip Rivers (+2200), and Drew Brees (+2500).

Passing Yards Prop Prediction

The smart money for bettors from that list may be Stafford and Brees.

Last season, Stafford was on pace for a huge season before getting injured in Week 9. In eight games, he passed for 2,499 yards. He averaged 312.4 YPG, second in the league behind Winston, The Lions remain void of a credible rushing threat, so expect Stafford to air it out often again this season.

Brees, who has led the league in passing four times since 2011, also missed games due to injury last season. In 11 games, he passed for 2,979 yards. Brees has arguably the best wideout in the league in Michael Thomas, and a reliable target out of the backfield in Alvin Kamara. If he stays healthy another big passing season is definitely possible in what could be his final season.

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