Sep 10, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) is sacked by Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons (11) during the first half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

NFL OVER UNDER picks Week 3

Here are a few Week 3 NFL totals for this week that are worthy of your attention.

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Buffalo Bills at Washington Commanders (43.5): Under

Buffalo’s defense never gets enough credit for being one of the top units on paper in the NFL. They’ve given up just 16 points per game this season, while the Washington D has also looked extremely fierce up front with Montez Sweat, Chase Young et al. This should be a 20-14-type affair.

Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings (54): Over

Yeah, this is a high total. I don’t care. Both teams are extremely desperate at 0-2 and a lot of changes will be taken. That likely means some bombs land, and it could also mean short fields and defensive scores. Chargers games have averaged nearly 60 points thus far, and that trend should easily continue here.

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals (43): Over

Sure, both Dallas games this season have come in at 40 or under. But Micah Parsons and Co. aren’t going to average 5.0 points allowed per game for good. At home, a Cardinals team that put up 28 points should be able to score a little bit, especially if we hit garbage time, and there’s still no stopping the red-hot Dallas offense. Look for this one to coast into the 50s.


Archived NFL Week 3 OVER UNDER picks article from Sept. 2, 2022

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (52.5): OVER

Dating back to last season, the Lions have now scored 29 or more points in four consecutive games. They’ve also given up at least 27 in each of those outings, while the Minnesota offense has been quiet but is likely due for a breakout performance.

With that in mind, expect this one to sail into the 60s.

San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos (45): OVER

I think there’s a lot of value on the over here because the 49ers could certainly receive another jolt under Jimmy Garoppolo, while the Broncos have too much offensive talent to be held to fewer than 20 points for a third consecutive week.

Look for them to cut down on penalties and score a bunch of points at home as this one hits the 50s simply because both offenses are competent and due.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (40.5): UNDER

I think the Saints’ stacked defense has played under its head and is due for a few game-changing plays, while the Panthers’ offense came back to earth in Week 2 after an unexpectedly strong showing in Week 1. Even that effort was inflated by an aberrational fourth quarter.

Look for Carolina to be held to 10 or fewer in this spot, making the under the obvious play.


Archived Week 3 NFL OVER UNDER picks article from Sept. 23, 2021

Here are several totals for this week that are worthy of your attention. Odds are midweek lines courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, an official betting partner of the NFL.

2021 RECORD: 6-5


The Falcons have surrendered a league-worst 80 points this season, while the Giants are coming off a 29-point performance against the defensively-stacked Washington Football Team. They should easily hit the 30 mark in a desperate spot at home, but Matt Ryan and Co. should also get theirs, even if it’s in garbage time. This one easily hits the 50s.


The limping Eagles offense put up just 11 points at home last week, and the maligned Cowboys defense surrendered just 17 against the loaded Los Angeles Chargers on the road. Both units could come back toward the mean here, but no Brandon Brooks could be tough on Jalen Hurts. The Eagles D has also given up just 23 points all season. I can’t see this one hitting the 50s.


The Ravens offense is firing on all cylinders and could be healthier here than it was Sunday night against the Kansas City Chiefs. Now they get to feast on a horrendous Lions defense. In fact, both defensive units rank in the bottom four in points allowed. Baltimore should improve in that discipline, but the Lions have some fire in them early this year and they should put up points at home. This is a 50-something game.


The new-look Bengals defense has performed well this season, the Steelers aren’t themselves offensively, and Pittsburgh’s D is always stout. I’m expecting a very tight, conservative battle between two teams going in different directions. This feels like a 20-17-type affair.


Ditto for this one. Brian Flores’ Miami defense is too damn good not to bounce back in this spot, the Dolphins offense isn’t well-positioned to take advantage of a vulnerable Raiders defense with Jacoby Brissett under center, and Las Vegas is probably due to come back to earth after a 2-0 start anyway. Miami wins a low-scoring road matchup.

Archived Week 3 NFL OVER UNDER picks article from Sep 25, 2020

Maybe you’ve already got your picks in for Week 3 of the 2020 NFL regular season, but by focusing only on point spreads, moneylines or fantasy, you’re robbing yourself of potential opportunities to make money on over/unders.

Here are a trio of NFL OVER UNDER picks for Week 3 that are worthy of your attention. Totals are mid-week numbers courtesy of Draft Kings, visit them for the latest or see comparative NFL odds on every game here at NFP.

Season record: 4-3

Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills (47.5)

The Rams held the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles to fewer than 20 points each and should again keep the Bills in that range. Buffalo’s offense has been fire thus far, but it hasn’t had to deal with an Aaron Donald or a Jalen Ramsey. This will be a very different challenge.

Buffalo’s defense is also stronger the Dallas’ and probably even Philly’s based on how the Eagles performed last week. The 28 points they surrendered against the Miami Dolphins was likely an anomaly. A unit that surrendered just 16.2 points per game last season should be just as strong in 2020.

The Rams offense is likely to come back to earth here, while the Buffalo offense is in for a challenge. I have no idea why anyone excepts more than 40 or so points in Orchard Park Sunday.

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Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings (47.5)

With the secondary gutted, the pass rush limited sans Danielle Hunter and Anthony Barr now out of the picture at linebacker, the Vikings defense is a complete mess. Meanwhile, the Tennessee offense woke up with Ryan Tannehill lighting up the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. They should be able to keep rolling that way here.

That said, Minnesota will be desperate, and it’s a good sign for the Vikings’ sake that quarterback Kirk Cousins is coming off a poor performance because the guy’s been riding a roller-coaster his entire damn career. Look for him to keep the Vikes fighting and turn this into a shootout against a shorthanded Tennessee secondary as this goes way over the total.

Washington Football Team at Cleveland Browns (44.5)

This is a battle between two teams relying on untrustworthy young quarterbacks behind offensive lines that are either a work in progress (Cleveland) or just plain bad (Washington), with scary defensive fronts on the other side. Chase Young and Myles Garrett could go off in this game, which could set up a defensive battle.

Both of these teams are averaging exactly 21 points per game, but now Washington is without key offensive lineman Brandon Scherff. Watch for a 23-16-type result in Cleveland Sunday afternoon.

Brad Gagnon has been passionate about both sports and mass media since he was in diapers -- a passion that won't die until he's in them again. He was a lead contributor to an earlier incarnation of and was happy to return when new management revived the brand in 2020. Based in Toronto, he's covered the NFL since 2008 and has been a national NFL writer at Bleacher Report since 2012. He despises all 32 NFL teams equally but remains a fan of the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He can be reached at