Maybe you’ve already got your picks in for Week 12 of the 2023 NFL regular season, but by focusing only on point spreads, moneylines or fantasy, you’re robbing yourself of potential opportunities to make money on over/unders.
Here are several totals for this week that are worthy of your attention. For live NFL odds and Trend Dummy’s deep database diving for cool, possibly relevant Week 12 NFL betting trends, check them out. Odds are midweek from Draft Kings Sportsbook.
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati 36 UNDER
No Joe Burrows means a renewed focus on defense and Pittsburgh never brings a big offensive push. This is hard sell to get this game into the 40s.
New England @ NY Giants UNDER 36
Same story above, a backup QB in Big Blue and a struggling Mac Jones with the Pats makes this seem like a low-scoring affair in a meaningless game in the sloppy rain.
Baltimore @ LA Chargers OVER 48.5
Opposite story from above, two dynamic QBs in Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert and both teams coming off losses and playing in a nice warm stadium. The Chargers rank last against the pass which suggests lots of scoring and the Chargers are almost always competitive, which suggests lots of scoring. 34-31 anyone?
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Archived Week 12 NFL OVER UNDER article from Nov. 25, 2022
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (43): OVER
Each of Cincinnati’s last two games have contained 63 or more points, while the Titans put up 27 last week in Green Bay. There’s too much firepower on both sides for this one to be south of 45.
Chicago Bears at New York Jets (38.5): OVER
Five consecutive Bears games have contained at least 47 points. The Jets don’t score a lot and have a strong defense, but 38.5 is just silly considering what’s happening with Chicago of late.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (39): UNDER
The Steelers’ high-scoring Week 11 affair is likely an anomaly, while the Colts and Eagles combined for just 33 points last week. This feels like a 17-14-type affair.
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Archived Week 12 NFL OVER UNDER picks article from Nov. 24, 2021
2021 RECORD: 22-26
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots: 43.5
The Patriots now have the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL, while a lack of Derrick Henry is catching up to the Tennessee offense. That unit has scored just 26 total points the last two weeks, but the D has continued to perform solidly and should be able to hold rookie quarterback Mac Jones in check for New England. I’m expecting this tight game to contain fewer than 40 points.
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins: 41.5
Carolina has the league’s sixth-ranked scoring defense, while the defensively underrated Dolphins have finally put it all together with just 36 points allowed in their last three games. The Panthers have had a spring in their offensive step with Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey back, but I think Brian Flores will have his team ready to shut that unit down in a desperate situation as this one also falls short of the 40 plateau.
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers: 49
The last three Vikings games have averaged 62 points, while the 49ers have scored more than 30 in consecutive games. Both of these teams really need this and will likely pull out all the stops, and I don’t totally trust either defense. The 49ers have the defensive talent to keep this one below the 50 mark, but I get the feeling Kirk Cousins will deliver and this one will push closer to 60.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team: 47
I understand why this is a sub-50 total, but I think both teams are primed to make runs at 30 points in an over. No way anyone is keeping Russell Wilson down for a third consecutive week, right? His ego needs this now, and Washington’s defense has been better but is still without Chase Young. Meanwhile, the Washington offense has really picked it up with 56 points the last two weeks. Looking for the over to get us back to .500 on Monday Night Football!
Archived NFL Week 12 OVER UNDER picks article from Nov. 25, 2020
Last week’s record: 22-18-2
HOUSTON TEXANS AT DETROIT LIONS (51)
Houston’s defense has quietly surrendered fewer than 20 points per game the last three weeks, while the Lions were shut out by the Carolina Panthers in Week 11. Matthew Stafford and Kenny Golladay are far from 100 percent, so I wouldn’t expect more than 20 or so points from Detroit and the Houston offense hasn’t scored more than 27 since Week 6. This will wind up in the mid-40s at most.
ARIZONA CARDINALS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (49.5)
This might be brought down by the fact both teams played relatively low-scoring games in Week 11, but Arizona is well-rested now and likely to hit the 30 mark again after doing so in each of its previous five games. Plus, New England is almost always good for 20-plus. The Cards have surrendered at least 28 points in four straight outings, so this one should push 60.
TENNESSEE TITANS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (51)
The two combined for exactly 51 points when they met two weeks ago, but the Titans have since lost some key defenders to injury and the Colts have now scored 68 points in their last two outings alone. This one should also hit the 60s, especially if Derrick Henry gets going again in Indy.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT DENVER BRONCOS (43.5)
Vic Fangio will have spent the week watching Taysom Hill tape, and his top-10 defense in terms of DVOA will be ready for the shorthanded New Orleans offense. The Broncos are solid at home, and they gave up just 13 points to the surging Miami Dolphins in Denver last week. But Drew Lock has also been a mess, and his offense has scored just 32 total points the last two weeks. This one might fall short of 40 points.
