NFL Wild Card Betting Trends

Underdogs had been a wild ride of Wild Card betting success until the 2022 season came along. After running to a 15-3 ATS over 18 games, the favorites kicked the dogs in the face last year with a 5-1 ATS mark.

So with all six Wild Card games rematches from earlier in the season, do the dogs resume barking or do the favorites shut them up again? A year ago, all six home teams were chalk, this year both Jacksonville (+1) and Tampa Bay (+3) opened as home dogs to the Chargers and Cowboys respectively.

Two teams (San Francisco and Buffalo) are double-digit home chalk to the Giants and Dolphins. Check out the NFL Wild Card betting trends dug from our trusty NFL database with early lines as of Monday from Draft Kings Sportsbook, an official betting partner of the NFL.

Seattle @ San Francisco -10, Total 43 | Matchup Report

Second time in two weeks Seattle is double-digit dog, it hadn’t happened since 2011 before that.

Seahawks 2-9 ATS as DD dogs dating to 2008

Seahawks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games

49ers have won 10 straight games SU

Seahawks are 15-4 SU in their last 19 games against San Francisco.

49ers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games

UNDER is 8-1 past 9 San Fran playoff games 49ers are 12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games at home.

49ers covered 8 straight divisional games

49ers are 18-4-1 ATS in their last 23 games played in January.

49ers are 11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games played on a Saturday.

LA Chargers @ Jacksonville +1, Total 47.5 | Matchup Report

Jaguars are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against LA Chargers.

OVER is 11-2 past 13 meetings of Chargers and Jaguars

Chargers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games

Chargers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games on the road.

Chargers have covered 5 in a row at Jacksonville

Chargers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Saturday.

Chargers are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games as the favorite.

UNDER is 9-2 Jacksonville’s last 11 games played in January.

Miami @ Buffalo -10.5, Total 43.5 | Matchup Report

Bills are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games at home.

Bills are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games at home against Miami.

Dolphins are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games

Bills are 16-3 SU in their last 19 divisional games

NY Giants @ Minnesota -3, Total 48.5 | Matchup Report

Giants are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when playing as the underdog.

Giants are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games.

Vikings are 15-0 SU in their last 15 games as the favorite.

OVER is11-4 Minnesota’s last 15 games.

Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road (28-12 ATS past 40 on road)

Giants have lost 5 in a row at Minnesota

Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games

Vikings are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games

Only one playoff game for Giants since winning Super Bowl 46, crushed at Green Bay in 2017

Baltimore @ Cincinnati -6.5, Total 43.5 | Matchup Report

Bengals are 20-4 ATS in their last 24 games

Bengals are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 conference games

Ravens are 18-4-1 ATS in their last 23 games as the underdog.

Ravens have played 4 straight playoff UNDERs

Bengals played 8 straight playoff UNDERs

Dallas @ Tampa Bay +3, Total45.5 | Matchup Report

Bucs are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games played in January.

Bucs are 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games.

Cowboys are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games played in January.

Cowboys are 10-2 SU in their last 12 Monday Night road games

UNDER is 12-3 past 15 meetings

Cowboys are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games on the road

Cowboys are 1-6 ATS past 7 playoff games

Last time Cowboys were playoff road chalk they were upset at Carolina Jan 5, 1997 (Kerry Collins beat Troy Aikman)

2022 Wild Card Results

Raiders 19 @ Bengals 26, -6

Patriots 17 @ Bills 47, -4.5

Eagles 15 @ Bucs 31, -7

49ers 23 @ Cowboys 17, -3.5

Steelers 21 @ Chiefs 42, -11.5

Cardinals 11 @ Rams 34, -3.5

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Archived Wild Card betting trends article from Jan. 10. 2023

Betting on Wild Card favorites has been the same as lighting your money on fire over the past few seasons. There have been 18 games the past four Wild Card weekends and underdogs have covered the spread 15 times.

Yup, 15-3 ATS favoring the dogs, including 4-2 last year when only the Saints and Ravens managed to cover. Wild Card Weekend is even wilder in 2022, as six games are on the betting docket and the first-ever Monday Night Wild Card matchup.

In 2022, all six home teams are favored including the defending conference champion Tampa Bay and Kansas City, each favored by double digits.

So, can Cincy break a 30-year post-season losing skid of eight straight games? Will San Francisco’s run of January profits continue in Dallas? What about New England’s always-win-on-Saturday streak?

Las Vegas @ Cincinnati -6.5, Total 49.5 | Analysis & Pick | Matchup Report

Bengals 0-8 SU, 0-7-1 ATS in playoffs since Jan. 1991 when Boomer Esiason beat Cody Carlson’s Houston Oilers 41-14

Raiders have not won as a playoff dog since winning Super Bowl 28 in 1984.

Bengals are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against Las Vegas

Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games at Cincinnati.

Bengals are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games played on a Saturday.

OVER is 11-3 Cincinnati’s last 14 games as the favorite.

New England @ Buffalo -4, Total 43.5 | Matchup Report

Patriots won SU past two games as playoff underdogs

Bills have lost just once as playoff chalk since 1980 (wide right loss Super Bowl 30, they are 12-1 SU, 8-4-1 ATS)

Pats are 19-3 SU in their last 22 games at Buffalo

Pats are 18-3 SU in their last 21 games played on a Saturday.

Bills are 11-1 SU in their last 12 divisional games

Sunday Wild Card Betting Trends

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay -8.5, Total 49 | Matchup Report

Eagles are 3-14 SU in their last 17 games when playing as the underdog

Eagles 5-1 ATS past 6 playoff games

UNDER is 11-3 Philadelphia’s last 14 games played in January

Bucs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games at home.

Bucs won 7 straight in January

Bucs are 18-4 SU in their last 22 games as the favorite

Bucs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Sunday home games

San Francisco @ Dallas -3, Total 50.5 | Matchup Report

Cowboys are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 conference games

49ers are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games played in January

OVER is 7-1 past 8 meetings in Dallas

49ers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as the underdog

Cowboys were 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games played in January before blowing out Philly’s B team last week

Cowboys are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as the favorite.

UNDER is 7-1 San Francisco’s last 8 games as playoff underdogs

Cowboys 3-10 ATS past 13 playoff games

Pittsburgh @ Kansas City -13, Total 46.5 | Matchup Report

This is biggest Steelers dog number since +13.5 vs Dallas in Super Bowl 30 (Jan. 26, 1996).

Steelers have allowed 129 points in past three playoff games, all losses

Steelers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 conference games

Steelers are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games as the underdog.

Monday Night Wild Card Betting Trends

Arizona @ LA Rams -4, Total 50.5 | Matchup Report

Cardinals failed to cover 4 straight playoff games

Rams failed to cover 4 straight playoff games

Rams are 9-2-1 ATS, 10-2 SU in their last 12 games against Arizona

Cardinals are 8-1 SU and ATS in their last 9 road games

Cardinals are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games played on a Monday

Cardinals have covered 6 straight and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as the underdog.

Rams just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite.

Archived Wild Card betting trends article from Jan. 4, 2021

And a couple of divisional matchups (Pittsburgh-Cleveland and Seattle-Rams) add even more trendy spice to the mix, because bettors have recent data to analyze.

What are the best NFL Wild Card betting trends? How about a 17-0 streak? How about a 2-9 ATS run as home playoff faves? Read on and check out the latest NFL lines (these numbers are Monday morning spreads from FanDuel and Draft Kings)

Saturday Jan. 6 Wild Card Trends

Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills -7, Total 52 | Matchup Report

The Bills almost always win as favorites, the Colts almost always lose as underdogs. Now for that tricky spread part where Buffalo has turned the trick eight straight times for bettors. Maybe the dominant UNDER trend on Indy will prevail here.

Bills are 13-1 SU in their last 14 games when playing as the favorite (10-4 ATS)

Colts are 6-23 SU in their last 29 games as the underdog

Bills have covered 8 straight games

Colts 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games

UNDER is 16-6 Indianapolis’ last 22 games against Buffalo

UNDER is 8-3 Indianapolis’ last 11 games at Buffalo

UNDER is 11-3 Indianapolis’ last 14 games played in January.

UNDER is 13-3 Indianapolis’ last 16 games played on a Saturday

Colts are 6-23 SU in their last 29 games as the underdog

OVER is 7-1 Buffalo’s last 8 Saturday home games

LA Rams vs Seattle Seahawks -4.5, Total 43 | Matchup Report

Not a lot here. The Rams have been playing UNDER lately and tend to cover against conference foes.

UNDER is 11-2 LA Rams’ last 13 games.

Rams 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games at Seattle.

Rams 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 conference games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team +8, Total 46.5 | Matchup Report

Tampa Bay is a road playoff favorite for the second time in franchise history and first time since losing 21-3 at Philly Dec. 31, 2000.

Tampa 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 Saturday games

Tampa 9-2 SU in their last 11 road games.

OVER is 17-5 Tampa Bay’s last 22 conference games

Washington 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as the underdog

Sunday Jan. 7 Wild Card Trends

Baltimore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans +3.5, Total 54 | Matchup Report

Tons of positive Ravens trends, tons of OVER trends….

Ravens have covered 6 straight and 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games

Ravens 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 road games.

Ravens 15-5 ATS in their last 20 conference games.

Ravens 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played in January.

OVER is 22-7 Tennessee’s last 29 games.

OVER is 15-6 Tennessee’s last 21 home games.

OVER is 16-6 Tennessee’s last 22 conference games

OVER in 9-2 Tennessee’s last 11 games as the underdog

Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints -9.5, Total 47.5 | Matchup Report

The Saints have been brutal as playoff chalk over the years, bleeding money to a 2-9 ATS rate in this situation since 1980. They lost outright past two seasons in this role as well, to the Vikings last season and to the Rams a year earlier.

Saints 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games

Saints have won 6 straight SU vs Bears

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers -4, Total 46.5 | Matchup Report

It’s the first Cleveland playoff game since Jan. 5, 2003 when they lost 36-33 at Pittsburgh as 8-point road dogs. Kelly Holcomb passed for 428 yards but was out-dueled by Tommy Maddox.

Steelers 17-0 SU in their last 17 at home against Cleveland.

Browns 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games.

Browns failed to cover 8 straight divisional games

OVER is 25-8 Pittsburgh’s last 33 games played in January

More NFL Wild Card betting trends coming soon