NFL Wild Card OVER UNDER picks

Maybe you’ve already got your picks in for wild-card weekend in the NFL, but by focusing only on point spreads, moneylines or fantasy, you’re robbing yourself of potential opportunities to make money on over/unders.

Here are notes and predictions relating to the totals for all six games this weekend, with odds from FanDuel as of Thursday, check them for line moves and terrific playoff bonus specials.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (42): UNDER

Four consecutive Seahawks games have contained 35 or fewer points, the 49ers defense is still a force and we really don’t know what to expect from Brock Purdy in this spot.

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (47): UNDER

The Chargers defense surrendered just 15.0 points per game in the final five weeks of the regular season, and Jacksonville gave up just 22 points total the last three weeks. This is way too high.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (43.5): OVER

This is risky considering Miami’s quarterback problem, but the Bills have scored more than 30 points in each of their last three games and there will be room for garbage-time points on either side in the event of a blowout.

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (48): UNDER

Both teams are too erratic for this to be a big-money bet, but the Giants should be capable of slowing the game down on the ground.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (40.5): UNDER

I’m expecting a flat effort from the Ravens considering the Lamar Jackson situation, and this is a team that hasn’t scored more than 17 points in a game since November. We’re also still looking at two of the top six scoring defenses in the NFL.

Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (45.5): OVER

Dak Prescott and Tom Brady and their respective weapons are going to battle it out. I think this one hits the 60s.

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Archived NFL Wild Card OVER UNDER picks article from Jan. 13, 2022

Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals: 48.5

Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller are getting healthier for the Raiders offense, while key Bengals offensive cogs have had extra time to rest and prepare for a defense that surrendered 32 points in Week 18. I think this one hits the 50s.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: 44

These two combined for 54 points when they last met. And while weather could be a factor Saturday night in Western New York, the Bills are extremely healthy and should be ready to put up 27-plus points for the sixth consecutive week in a row. New England isn’t likely to be blown out so the over feels safe.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 46

The Eagles defense has given up 18 or fewer points in each of their last five meaningful games, while the Bucs have given up 17 or fewer in three of their last four. Throw in that you never quite know what you’re going to get from Jalen Hurts, and that the Bucs offense is still a bit shorthanded, and the under gets the nod here.

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys: 50.5

The Dallas offense is extremely hot and cold and the 49ers are also quite unpredictable, so I’d stay away from this game when it comes to the total. That said, the San Francisco offense still has some significant question marks and this should be a close game so both teams could play it close to the vest. I’m leaning under.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs: 45.5

The Chiefs are always going to put up points, but the Steelers defense was stellar down the stretch. That said, the oddsmakers have accounted for that with this relatively low total. The Chiefs defense struggled in the final two weeks of the regular season, and the Steelers could get JuJu Smith-Schuster back from a shoulder injury. I’m hitting the over.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams: 48.5

The Rams offense hasn’t been remotely reliable down the stretch, and the Cardinals have lost plenty of luster on that side of the ball as well. I figure this is another close game in which both teams will be afraid to make mistakes, resulting in an under.

Archived NFL Wild Card OVER UNDER picks article from Jan. 5, 2021

Maybe you’ve already got your picks in for wild-card weekend, but by focusing only on point spreads, moneylines or fantasy, you’re robbing yourself of potential opportunities to make money on over/unders.

Here’s a breakdown of the totals this weekend with early lines courtesy of BetRivers and SugarHouse. And watch for line moves and full Wild Card matchup breakdowns as well.

Regular-season record: 33-30-2

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT BUFFALO BILLS (52)

The Colts have averaged 30.8 points per game the last four weeks. Their defense is strong, but the Bills have scored 38-plus points in three consecutive outings, and neither D ranks better than 10th in points allowed.

There’s a chance Philip Rivers and/or Josh Allen struggle under the intense playoff spotlight, but that could lead to points via turnovers and shorter fields as both defenses have plenty of playmakers. This number isn’t low, but I’m still on the over.

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (43)

These two combined for just 29 points when they met two weeks ago. The Rams have the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL, and the Seahawks have surrendered just 12.5 points per game the last four weeks.

That red-hot unit might also get to go up against a backup quarterback (or Jared Goff at less than 100 percent) and it’s not as though Russell Wilson has been lighting it up lately either. The last three meetings between these division rivals have contained 40 or fewer points, and that should again be the case Saturday.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (45.5)

I understand that there’s a fear that 43-year-old Tom Brady could struggle on slightly short rest against a fierce Washington defensive front, but it’s odd this total is nearly a handful of points south of the 50 plateau.

Tampa Bay has averaged 40.7 points per game the last three weeks and Washington is still usually good for at least 20 with Alex Smith at quarterback. That should be the case Saturday night, and Tampa’s defense can create points in the event that the WFT implodes. The over looks like a pretty safe bet here.

BALTIMORE RAVENS AT TENNESSEE TITANS (55)

The two teams combined for 54 in their regular-season meeting but only 40 in last year’s playoffs. Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson remains a question mark in big games and Tennessee’s offense runs so heavily through running back Derrick Henry that it could result in a faster game that doesn’t contain enough quick scores to hit such a high number.

That said, both teams have been routinely hitting the 40 mark so often of late that you couldn’t be faulted for hitting the over and cheering for touchdowns. This is a tough call and an over/under I’d avoid, but I’m still siding with the under based on a lack of trust in Jackson and Ryan Tannehill in this spot.

CHICAGO BEARS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (48)

Some may have an inflated view of the Chicago offense based on a hot streak against weak competition in December, but the Saints have allowed 16 or fewer points in six of their last nine games and possess a top-five scoring defense.

No way I’m betting on a big game from Mitchell Trubisky in this situation, but the Saints also have a lot of offensive questions with Drew Brees easing back in and both Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara up in the air. I don’t know if they’re hitting the 30 plateau against a talented defense so let’s hit the under.

CLEVELAND BROWNS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (47.5)

I’d avoid this one just because we don’t know what to expect from the wild-card Browns in their first playoff experience since the Jurassic period. Baker Mayfield could light up a familiar and shorthanded defense, or a D that remains terrifying could light up Mayfield in a prime-time road playoff game.

Ultimately, it’s still hard to trust the Steelers offense based on how unreliable it was during the second half of the season. This total would likely be a fair bit lower if not for Pittsburgh’s big second half against the Colts in Week 16, but there’s a decent chance that was an aberration so I’ll lean toward the under.