Maybe you’ve already got your picks in for wild-card weekend in the NFL, but by focusing only on point spreads, moneylines or fantasy, you’re robbing yourself of potential opportunities to make money on over/unders.
Here are notes and predictions relating to the totals for all six games this weekend, with odds from FanDuel as of Thursday, check them for line moves and terrific playoff bonus specials.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (42): UNDER
Four consecutive Seahawks games have contained 35 or fewer points, the 49ers defense is still a force and we really don’t know what to expect from Brock Purdy in this spot.
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (47): UNDER
The Chargers defense surrendered just 15.0 points per game in the final five weeks of the regular season, and Jacksonville gave up just 22 points total the last three weeks. This is way too high.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (43.5): OVER
This is risky considering Miami’s quarterback problem, but the Bills have scored more than 30 points in each of their last three games and there will be room for garbage-time points on either side in the event of a blowout.
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (48): UNDER
Both teams are too erratic for this to be a big-money bet, but the Giants should be capable of slowing the game down on the ground.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (40.5): UNDER
I’m expecting a flat effort from the Ravens considering the Lamar Jackson situation, and this is a team that hasn’t scored more than 17 points in a game since November. We’re also still looking at two of the top six scoring defenses in the NFL.
Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (45.5): OVER
Dak Prescott and Tom Brady and their respective weapons are going to battle it out. I think this one hits the 60s.
Archived NFL Wild Card OVER UNDER picks article from Jan. 13, 2022
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals: 48.5
Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller are getting healthier for the Raiders offense, while key Bengals offensive cogs have had extra time to rest and prepare for a defense that surrendered 32 points in Week 18. I think this one hits the 50s.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: 44
These two combined for 54 points when they last met. And while weather could be a factor Saturday night in Western New York, the Bills are extremely healthy and should be ready to put up 27-plus points for the sixth consecutive week in a row. New England isn’t likely to be blown out so the over feels safe.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 46
The Eagles defense has given up 18 or fewer points in each of their last five meaningful games, while the Bucs have given up 17 or fewer in three of their last four. Throw in that you never quite know what you’re going to get from Jalen Hurts, and that the Bucs offense is still a bit shorthanded, and the under gets the nod here.
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys: 50.5
The Dallas offense is extremely hot and cold and the 49ers are also quite unpredictable, so I’d stay away from this game when it comes to the total. That said, the San Francisco offense still has some significant question marks and this should be a close game so both teams could play it close to the vest. I’m leaning under.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs: 45.5
The Chiefs are always going to put up points, but the Steelers defense was stellar down the stretch. That said, the oddsmakers have accounted for that with this relatively low total. The Chiefs defense struggled in the final two weeks of the regular season, and the Steelers could get JuJu Smith-Schuster back from a shoulder injury. I’m hitting the over.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams: 48.5
The Rams offense hasn’t been remotely reliable down the stretch, and the Cardinals have lost plenty of luster on that side of the ball as well. I figure this is another close game in which both teams will be afraid to make mistakes, resulting in an under.