We’ve been here to guide you with weekly picks against the spread every week throughout the NFL season. Here are half-a-dozen more for wild-card weekend.
Chargers @ Texans +3
Houston has not been a good team and earns this home spot by being the least bad team in the AFC South. That’s not enough to get a win here against a Chargers team that wobbled a little occasionally but generally is a far better team on both sides of the ball.
LA owns edges as a road team, as a favorite and vs the Texans head to head. We happily lay 3 points here to kick off the weekend with a cover.
Steelers @ Ravens -10
Take 3…. This line has crept to double digits early in the week and Pittsburgh’s last four games sure haven’t inspired much confidence. But the Steelers have won 6 of 8 here in Baltimore, and they are also known to flub at the worst possible time.
But 10 points in a divisional three-peat? Seems like a lot. The Ravens have lost 13 of 17 January games and are just 2-6 ATS in eight games as a playoff home team over recent years. We will take the Steelers +10.
Broncos @ Bills -8.5
Denver made great strides in 2024 but also showed inconsistency. They come off a cupcake Week 18 win over Kansas City’s practise squad and will get a full dose of Josh Allen.
Denver has lost five straight as dogs while the Bills are 9-2 ATS head-to-head with better versions of the Broncos than this one. We might bet the Broncos on a first half line but believe Buffalo can cover this nut.
Packers @ Eagles -5.5
Jordan Love is hobbled, Christian Watson is out and Jalen Hurts is rested and hungry. Despite Green Bay’s history of covering as playoff dogs (9-3-1 ATS run), the Eagles are rested and were the class of the league for much of the season.
Philly has all the weapons on both sides of the ball to win easily here, but they seldom make things easy for themselves. It should be cold and clear in Philly on Sunday and a score like 27-13 feels about right.
Commanders @ Bucs -3
Washington usually loses as a dog (3-10 SU) while Tampa Bay usually wins as a favorite (16-5 SU). Both teams are surprise playoff participants ad it will be flashy veteran in Baker Mayfield vs flashy rookie in Jayden Daniels.
The last time Washington won a playoff game, it was 2006 here and Mark Brunell beat Chris Simms – let’s see if history repeats itself. We play the Commanders +3.
Vikings @ Rams +1.5
Minnesota stunk up the joint in Detroit and new Sam Darnold looked like old Sam Darnold. The Rams have weapons galore and are 8-3 ATS last 11 games as home dogs.
The Vikings are 17-3 SU as road chalk but just 3-9 ATS in their past 12 games in January when things are important. This feels like another Vikings bomb, we play the Rams.
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Archived NFL Wild Card picks article from Jan. 14, 2023Â
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook midweek (bet $5 and EARN BONUS BETS!!)
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-9): 49ers
Seattle is really just happy to be here. San Francisco is the best team in the NFC. At home, they dominate just as they did in their two regular-season matchups with Seattle.
Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars: Jaguars
I just don’t trust the Chargers enough to lay points with them on the road, and the Jags have less to lose in an ascension season.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-13.5): Dolphins
For the most part, the Dolphins hung with teams even without Tua Tagovailoa down the stretch. They know these Bills and play them tough, and I think they’ll have fight here. The back door is also a factor with such a big number.
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3): Giants
The Vikings are imposters. This line takes that into account, but not quite enough. That said, I’d consider taking them at -2.5.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5): Bengals
On the road against a hot and experienced opponent without their star quarterback, it’s really hard to see the Ravens having much fight here.
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Buccaneers
A team quarterbacked by Tom Brady is getting points in a home playoff game from a team that has proven to be mistake-prone and unreliable. This is silly. Tampa is my best bet of the weekend.
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Archived NFL Wild Card Picks article from Jan. 13, 2022
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-5): Bengals
The Raiders are riding a lot of momentum with a four-game winning streak, but this is a bottom-12 team in terms of DOVA that has a negative scoring margin and might be out of gas. Meanwhile, the Bengals should be energized coming off a week of rest. They dominated the Ravens and Chiefs offensively in Weeks 16 and 17 and should walk away with this at home.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-4): Bills
There’s a mystique with the Patriots — I get it. But they’re just not on Buffalo’s level on either side of the ball and it’s not easy to trust rookie quarterback Mac Jones in this spot. I’d try to buy down to a field goal if possible, but I’m on the stronger home side.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5): Buccaneers
This number is big and I want to fade the public, but this isn’t a good matchup for the Eagles’ run-oriented offense and the Bucs deserve the benefit of the doubt based on their dominant run last January.
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (-3): Cowboys
Rolling with another favorite here because I’m confused as to why the Cowboys are deemed to be on the same level as San Francisco based on this spread. They’re a lot healthier, and a much better team overall. An upset is a possibility considering the 49ers’ pedigree, but I’d need more than a field goal here.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5): Chiefs
I have this feeling Ben Roethlisberger might go out the way Dan Marino did. The Steelers offense has become extremely inept, and Kansas City had five double-digit victories in the second half of the season. This one won’t be close.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-4): Cardinals
Finally an underdog! Neither team is trustworthy but I’ll take Kyler Murray over Matthew Stafford right now. Arizona’s Week 17 win in Dallas meant a lot, and I think they could put forth a similar effort here. They’ll at least keep this close, so I’m taking the four points.
