Despite a 9-3 record, the Bills have outscored their opponents by just 27 total points this season. That’s a far cry from Pittsburgh’s plus-123 scoring margin, and it’s possible this will serve as somewhat of a correction game as the veteran Steelers take out their frustrations from last week on an opponent that doesn’t have close to as much big-game experience.
You’d have to think the Steelers’ odds of suddenly losing twice in seven days aren’t great. This team obviously finds ways to win and will likely have top rusher James Conner back in order to take pressure off a passing game that has struggled without much help from the backfield in recent weeks.
WHY THE BILLS WILL COVER the spread
While both teams are operating on short rest, the Bills are a lot hotter, healthier and younger than the Steelers, so those dynamics could favor Buffalo. The Bills also have the advantage of being at home on a short week, whereas Pittsburgh is on the road and without front-seven defenders Devin Bush, Bud Dupree and Robert Spillane.
If Alex Smith could take advantage of those injuries, Josh Allen certainly could have a field day. The MVP candidate is coming off a near-perfect performance in Arizona, while Ben Roethlisberger has a mere 84.2 passer rating in his last three starts for the Steelers.
STEELERS BILLS BETTING PICK
The Bills have covered the spread in four of their last five games and probably aren’t getting enough respect with this line. They’ve won their last two home games against high-quality opponents by double-digit margins, and all they need here is a three-point victory against an overrated team that is in rough shape.
It’s fair to be concerned about how they might react to the spotlight and the stage here, but they’re still the more logical pick.