Nov 1, 2020; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills running back Zack Moss (20) reacts to his touchdown run against the New England Patriots during the first quarter at Bills Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Steelers Bills Betting Pick, Sunday Night Preview

If the Buffalo Bills can beat the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday night in Orchard Park, they’ll be one game back of the Steelers (and possibly the Kansas City Chiefs as well) in the AFC standings.

They’d also move one step closer to securing their first division title of the 21st century and a home playoff game for the first time since 1995.

Meanwhile, the Steelers are trying to bounce back from their first loss in nearly a calendar year in order to cling to a tiebreaker-based lead over the Chiefs in the race for the only first-round bye in that conference.

So yeah, there’s a lot on the line Sunday evening. And there’s little reason to expect anything other than a thriller. Buffalo is favored but by just 2 points as of Thursday at BetRivers.

Steelers Bills Betting Pick, Odds: Buffalo -2, Total 48 | Matchup Report 


Despite a 9-3 record, the Bills have outscored their opponents by just 27 total points this season. That’s a far cry from Pittsburgh’s plus-123 scoring margin, and it’s possible this will serve as somewhat of a correction game as the veteran Steelers take out their frustrations from last week on an opponent that doesn’t have close to as much big-game experience.

You’d have to think the Steelers’ odds of suddenly losing twice in seven days aren’t great. This team obviously finds ways to win and will likely have top rusher James Conner back in order to take pressure off a passing game that has struggled without much help from the backfield in recent weeks.


While both teams are operating on short rest, the Bills are a lot hotter, healthier and younger than the Steelers, so those dynamics could favor Buffalo. The Bills also have the advantage of being at home on a short week, whereas Pittsburgh is on the road and without front-seven defenders Devin Bush, Bud Dupree and Robert Spillane.

If Alex Smith could take advantage of those injuries, Josh Allen certainly could have a field day. The MVP candidate is coming off a near-perfect performance in Arizona, while Ben Roethlisberger has a mere 84.2 passer rating in his last three starts for the Steelers.


The Bills have covered the spread in four of their last five games and probably aren’t getting enough respect with this line. They’ve won their last two home games against high-quality opponents by double-digit margins, and all they need here is a three-point victory against an overrated team that is in rough shape.

It’s fair to be concerned about how they might react to the spotlight and the stage here, but they’re still the more logical pick.

Brad Gagnon has been passionate about both sports and mass media since he was in diapers -- a passion that won't die until he's in them again. He was a lead contributor to an earlier incarnation of and was happy to return when new management revived the brand in 2020. Based in Toronto, he's covered the NFL since 2008 and has been a national NFL writer at Bleacher Report since 2012. He despises all 32 NFL teams equally but remains a fan of the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He can be reached at