New England, Baltimore, Jacksonville and Denver. Those are the first-place teams in the AFC, and we’d like to connect the polygraph machine if you claim these were your preseason division winner picks.

Spoiler alert: this isn’t how it ends.

That’s because as division matchups ramp up in December, a whole lot of chaos is coming down the chimney before the month ends.

Only four teams — New England (3-0), the LA Chargers (4-0), Tampa Bay (2-0) and Green Bay (3-0) — are undefeated in their own division.

The Colts have lost three of four and dropped into second place in the AFC South on Sunday. The Texans (4-1 in the division) are 7-5 overall and just a game back of first-place Jacksonville (8-4). The Colts (8-4) play the Jaguars this week and end the regular season at Houston.

NFC North-leading Chicago is 1-2 in the division and packs for frigid Lambeau Field on Sunday to face the Packers in what sets up as a seismic Week 14 in the playoff picture.

The Bears (9-3) might be flagged as frauds this month with the lowest strength of victory (.347) of any division leader and a net-TD differential of minus-3.

For those who stack weight into the scoring margin column this time of year, the Seahawks (9-3) are tops in the league at plus-133. Indianapolis leads the AFC at plus-108.

Chicago? The Bears check in at plus-6. But credit first-year coach Ben Johnson for thriving in one-score games with a 6-1 record.

Currently outside of the NFC playoff picture, Detroit (7-5) treads on thinning ice despite a win over the Bears head-to-head. That’s because of two losses to the Packers (8-3-1) and a 1-3 division record overall. Now, the Lions are under growing pressure Thursday night against the Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1). But Dallas might rue a loss to the Carolina Panthers (7-6) when it’s all said and done.

San Francisco (9-4) finally rolls into a bye week and has the best intradivision record among the NFC West’s three nine-win teams at 4-1.

Here is where the NFL playoff picture stands prior to New England’s Week 13 game Monday night:

AFC
1.
Denver Broncos (10-2)
2.
New England
Patriots (10-2)

3. Jacksonville
Jaguars (8-4)
4.
Baltimore
Ravens (6-6)
5.
Los Angeles Chargers
(8-4)
6.
Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
7. Buffalo Bills (
8-4)
————
8.
Houston Texans (7-5)
9.
Pittsburgh
Steelers (6-6)
10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)
11.
Miami
Dolphins (5-7)
12.
Cincinnati
Bengals (4-8)

NFC
1. Chicago Bears (9-3)

2. Los Angeles Rams (9-3)

3. Philadelphia Eagles (8-4)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)

5. Seattle Seahawks (9-3)

6. Green Bay Packers (8-3-1)

7. San Francisco 49ers (9-4)
————

8. Detroit Lions (7-5)

9. Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1)

10. Carolina Panthers (7-6)

11. Atlanta Falcons (4-8)

12. Minnesota Vikings (4-8)

–Field Level Media