49ers vs Patriots Pick, Betting Analysis

The New England Patriots are 20-3 in their last 23 Sunday home games and they host the San Francisco 49ers as small home favorites here in Week 7. The Niners are coming off a big division win on Sunday Night Football against the Rams.

Both these teams have had their ups and downs this season, but I like the Patriots to come away with a win and cover the 1.5 spread. If you like trends that focus on a particular week of the season, Week 7 has not been lucky for the 49ers, who ride a 1-11-1 ATS streak the past 13 seasons, per our resident trend geek.

49ers Patriots Odds: New England -2 Total 44 at BetRivers | Matchup Report

The Patriots offense could not have looked any worse last week. They only had 288 yards of total offense, and ended up having to go to Julian Edelman on two trick plays on their final drive to finally get some creativity in their offense. 

The Patriots need to get back to their run-first style offense with Cam Newton that was so successful earlier in the season. The Patriots biggest play on offense last week was a Newton run, and I think Josh McDaniels will realize this is best way to go for this offense. 

On defense, the Patriots pass defense was ferocious last week. They forced 2 INTs from Drew Lock, and will have a favorable matchup against a banged up Jimmy Garrapolo, who will be without his star RB Raheem Mostert. 

Why San Francisco can cover the spread

The 49ers had a season-saving win on Sunday Night in Week 6, and will have another tough matchup against the Patriots. 

With Mostert out of the lineup, it looks like JaMychel Hasty will get the start at RB, and he has some upside to his game. He looked sharp against the Rams, and I don’t think there will be too much drop off from Mostert. Kyle Shanahan is a genius at getting his RBs in space 

The 49ers own the 7th best DVOA rush defense in the NFL, and will be tasked with slowing down Newton and the Patriots rushing attack. They held Darrell Henderson in check last week, and as a whole the defense has been playing well the last couple weeks. 

49ers Patriots Pick

I simply can’t bet against Belichick off a loss, especially when they are at home. This will be a “get right” game for this New England offense, and I think they win by more than a field goal. Take the Patriots in this one.