Aug 17, 2020; Tampa, Florida, USA;  Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) and wide receiver Mike Evans (13) talk at AdventHealth Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Buccaneers vs Bears Pick, Thursday Night Bet

The New York Jets and Denver Broncos shocked the world and actually put together a decent game to watch last Thursday. This Thursday is a different story, as one of the best matchups of the week will fall on Thursday night.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will head to Soldier Field to play the Chicago Bears rising a horrendous 1-11-1 ATS streak in October games. Of course, those losses were not during Tom Brady’s tenure.

I like the home underdog in this one. The Bears will bounce back and cover the spread at +5.5. 

Buccaneers Bears Odds: +5.5 Chicago Total 44 | Bet at BetRivers | Matchup Stats 


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Why Chicago will cover the spread

Nick Foles’ first start with the Bears didn’t go as planned. He was forced to throw the ball 42 times, and only had 249 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT.  He struggled all day due to the lack of a running game. David Montgomery only had 27 yards on the ground and, without a running game, Foles will continue to struggle.

I think the short week might actually benefit the Bears. Foles is at his best when everything is simplified, as he flourished under a simplified Doug Pederson offense in Philly. I think Nagy will make things easier for him on Thursday night. Look out for play action and RPO style plays to keep Nick comfortable. 

On the defensive side, the Bears seem to have their 2018 defense back. They are ranked 8th in total defense through four games, however there is room for improvement. 

The Bears need to find a way to sack Brady on Thursday night. They only have eight sacks thus far, which doesn’t add up considering they have 32 total pressures. They need to finish the play off, and I think this would be a good week to get back on track. Yes, Brady is the best at moving in the pocket, however he is 43 years old and one of the slowest QBs in the league.

If you believe that history repeats itself, Chicago is 16-5 SU against the Bucs over the years.

Why Tampa Bay will cover the spread

Don’t look now, but Brady and the Bucs are rolling. Tampa Bay has won three straight after losing Week 1 to the Saints, and they have scored 97 points in that three game span. 

This will be the toughest defense the Bucs have faced thus far, and they might be without some key guys. O.J Howard is done for the year with a ruptured Achilles, and they will be without star wideout Chris Godwin. Mike Evans and LeSean McCoy both didn’t practice on Tuesday, which is not a good sign considering they are on a short week. Brady will have to get it done with some backups. 

On defense, the Bucs have been outstanding at stopping the run through four weeks. They are 2nd in the NFL in total rushing defense, and it will be critical that continues on Thursday. The Bears will be relying heavily on David Montgomery to get this offense going. 

Buccaneers Bears pick

The spread is definitely indicative of some recency bias here. I don’t see how Tampa Bay can be road favorites at 5.5 over a 3-1 team. Yes, the Bears have had an easy schedule thus far, but they are still a solid team and should cause Brady some problems. 

I am expecting a low-scoring game that comes down to a field goal. I love the Bears +5.5 in this one. For totals bettors, Trend Dummy has found a ton of OVER trends but colleague Brad Gagnon is with me on the UNDER.

Brenden Deeg is from Ajax, Ontario and has been an NFL writer for over 5 years. Brenden has contributed to FanSided and 4th and Jawn. Brenden also played Defensive Line at York University, in Toronto Canada. Brenden is a Philadelphia Eagles fan, and active in the Philadelphia Eagles twitter community. You can follow his personal account here @ BrendenDeegNFP   He can reached at

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