Buccaneers vs Broncos Pick, Betting Analysis

With Drew Lock out, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter Week 3 as six point favorites (currently bet to -5.5). This is only the second time since 2008 that Tampa Bay will be big road favorites like this, and they are coming off a convincing win against the Carolina Panthers.

Denver will be rolling with backup QB Jeff Driskel, and came up short of a comeback last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. I like Tampa Bay to make a statement in this game and cover the 5.5 points with ease. 

Betting Line: -5.5 Tampa Bay Total 47.5 at BetRivers Sportsbook | Matchup Report Stats

Why Tampa Bay will cover the spread

Even with Tom Brady’s pick six in Week 1, I think he’s done a good job at learning this offense. Bruce Arians runs a complicated, deep threat style offense that can take some time to get used to. He played well last week, and finished with an 80.3 QBR. Brady will also get a huge boost this week, as Chris Godwin will start this week. 

Leonard Fournette looks like he’s ready to take control of the number one running back spot. He flashed his explosiveness last week, finishing with 103 yards on 12 carries. This is a favorable matchup for Fournette, as Denver’s defense struggled against James Conner last week. If Fournette can get going, this play action passing game could put the league on notice. 

It’s Driskel Time in Denver. Lock looks to be out for at least four weeks, so Driskel will be in charge of keeping Denver in contention. He looked sharp last week, throwing for 256 yards and 2 TDs. 

Driskel will have to continue his hot start if Denver wants to cover. Tampa Bay’s defense has been a pleasant surprise for them, having the NFLs 6th best pass defense thus far. Their offensive line will have to keep him upright, as Pittsburgh did sack him 7 times last week. 

Buccaneers Broncos pick

I foresee this game as coming out party for this Tampa offense. Denver has struggled against the pass this season, and this is a perfect opportunity for Brady with Denver’s top corner in A.J Bouye out. I’m all over Tampa Bay in this one, getting the extra half point of cushion at -5.5 is a bonus.