Oct 25, 2020; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) pushes into the end zone to score a rushing touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders in the first quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Bucs vs Giants Pick, Monday Night Football Analysis

Through seven games, these two teams are going in complete opposite directions. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are sitting at 5-2 and have won back-to-back games after a loss to the Chicago Bears in Week 5.

[ See also our Bucs Giants prop bets for the Week 8 Monday Nighter ] 

The New York Giants are 1-6 and are on 10 days rest after a last second loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. I just can’t wrap my head around taking the Giants at +13, the second biggest home dog number in their history, when they are 1-6 with no legitimate threat on offense.

The risk is laying 13 points on a road team that has never given so many points in a road game.  While the Giants bite hard as road underdogs, they are toothless as home underdogs, losing 8 in a row ATS and 12 of 13 in this situation. Regardless, I like the Buccaneers to cover in this one.

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Why Tampa Bay can cover the spread

The Bucs are clicking on all cylinders right now. They are ranked 1st in overall DVOA, and have won 5 of their last 6 games. Tom Brady is quickly playing into the MVP conversation, as he has 18 TDs and 4 INTs through 7 games.

The Bucs offense has plenty of weapons. Last week, Scotty Miller had a big game, and even Gronk is starting to heat up. The Giants defense is led by CB James Bradberry, who is having a stellar season. He will be tasked with slowing down Mike Evans, so the Bucs will need a guy like Miller or Gronk to step up and shoulder the load.

It looks like Wayne Gallman will get the start at RB for the Giants, as he provided a spark for the Giants offense last week. The Bucs run defense has been outstanding this season, sitting at 2nd in run defense DVOA. The key is to make the Giants one dimensional, and force Daniel Jones to beat them. I fully expect the Bucs to take away the Giants run game and cover the biggest road spread in their history, besting the -10 from a 2005 game at SF.

Why New York Giants can cover the spread

The Giants last two games have been decided by a single point, and they are 1-1 in those two games. Daniel Jones is playing better football as of late, as he had a 91.9 passer rating last week.

The Giants defense needs to force some turnovers for the Giants to have any chance. Brady has three turnovers in his two losses this season. The Giants also attack the Bucs defense with quick passes and use the screen game. They need to slow down the Bucs pass rush, and the best way to do that is screen passes. Watch out for Gallman in the passing game.

Our resident trend guru Trend Dummy also points out that the Giants are 5-0 ATS their past five games as double-digit home dogs.

Bucs Giants Pick

The Giants are 4-3 ATS this season even with a 1-6 overall record. I just think the Bucs are playing great football right now so I have a hard time seeing this game staying within two TDs. This should be a blowout. I like the Bucs –13.

Brenden Deeg is from Ajax, Ontario and has been an NFL writer for over 5 years. Brenden has contributed to FanSided and 4th and Jawn. Brenden also played Defensive Line at York University, in Toronto Canada. Brenden is a Philadelphia Eagles fan, and active in the Philadelphia Eagles twitter community. You can follow his personal account here @ BrendenDeegNFP   He can reached at Brenden.Deeg@NationalFootballPost.com

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