Titans Colts Pick, Odds, Trends

The Indianapolis Colts have been money against the Tennessee Titans in recent years. They are 17-7 ATS in their last 20 games, and 20-4 SU in their last 24 meetings, including a road win earlier this season.

Both teams are 7-3 and both come off big wins. The Titans won in overtime against the Baltimore Ravens, while the Colts beat the Green Bay Packers 34-31. The winner becomes the AFC South leader with just a few weeks left in the season.

I have been very impressed with the Colts lately, and will continue to ride them as small home favorites here. And for NFL totals betting, an interesting trend courtesy of Trend Dummy – 16 of the past 22 meetings here have played UNDER the total. Colleague Brad Gagnon thinks the OVER hits easily.

Titans Colts Pick, Odds: Indianapolis -3, Total 51.5 at BetRivers Indiana | Matchup Report 

The Colts are looking like a legitimate threat in the AFC. They have won three of their last four games, and the last two were impressive wins. They beat the Packers in overtime last week, and beat the Titans 34-17 back in Week 10. 

Phillip Rivers is playing some of the best football of his career. He has 7 TDs and only 2 INTs with a QB rating of 97.7 in the month of November. The Titans pass defense ranks 25th in DVOA, so Rivers has a good chance of continuing his hot play. 

The Titans offense is built around Derrick Henry, and the Colts defense is built to stop him. They rank 2nd in yards after contact, and 5th overall in DVOA. The Colts defense has only given up three points in the second half the last two games. Henry is especially dangerous in the 4th quarter, and the Colts have been lights out in the 2nd half this season. 

Why the Titans will cover the spread

The Titans got a much needed win in Week 11. They bounced back after their loss to the Colts, and won in overtime 30-24 on a 29 yard game winning TD run. Henry continues to dominate, running for 133 yards on 28 carries against the Ravens. 

The Titans offense stacks up with the best in the league. They are rank 3rd in DVOA, and have scored 20 or more points in all but one game this year. The Packers were able to get off to a 28-14 lead against the Colts, which shows there are holes in the Colts pass defense.

Titans Colts pick

I am all aboard the Colts hype train. Their defense is legit, and with Rivers playing at a high level, I think they are right up there with the Chiefs and Steelers. The Colts matchup perfectly against the Titans, and they proved it with their 34-17 win against them in Week 9.

I like the Colts -3 here.