Nov 14, 2021; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) celebrates after a victory against the Atlanta Falcons at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Thanksgiving Day Trends

Thanksgiving Day 2021 sees two road favorites among the trio of Turkey Day NFL matchups. The first game might be a stinker to watch but there is plenty of trend goodness which could give us a heaping helping of profits before we go to supper.

Check out the trends, with lines as of Monday at FanDuel sportsbook, offering awesome Turkey Day free promotions for new bettors – check them out!

Bears @ Lions +3.5, Total 41.5 | Matchup Report

Don’t trust either team? Join the club. The Bears trend OVER in the rare cases when they are road chalk (5 straight times).

Bears are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 divisional games

Bears played OVER 5 straight games as road favorites

Lions are 1-15 SU in their last 16 home games

Lions are 1-14 SU in their last 15 divisional games

Bears are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played on a Thursday.

Bears are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games when playing as the favorite.

Lions are 2-18 SU in their last 20 games played in week 12 (3-14 ATS past 17)

Raiders @ Cowboys -7, Total 51 | Matchup Report

Dallas tends to struggle with point spreads on short weeks (3-9 ATS past 12 Thursdays).

Cowboys are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games.

Cowboys are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Thursday home games.

Cowboys 5-1 ATS past 6 as favorites

Bills @ Saints +4.5, Total 46.5 | Matchup Report

Historically, you bet the Saints as underdogs (9-1-1 ATS past 11 times) but Buffalo looks set to reverse this trend. Still, buyer beware.

Saints are 14-3 SU in their last 17 non-conference

Saints are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as the underdog.

Bills are 25-6 SU in their last 31 games as the favorite.

Bills are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against New Orleans.

Bills have won 5 straight Week 12 games and are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 seasons.

Saints have played 5 straight Thursdays OVER (8-1 past 9)

Archived Thanksgiving Day trends article from Nov. 24, 2020

Thanksgiving Day wagering angles set the table for a full menu of Week 12 NFL betting trends to satisfy your football appetite. Ok enough of the turkey/hunger stuff, let’s get to the real meat of the data in our weekly deep dive into the NFL database.

The first two matchups are not exactly glamorous, with the Houston Texas small road favorites in Detroit and Washington gets a field goal in an NFC East battle at Dallas, which shouldn’t be important, but it is because the division is a train wreck.

Editor Note: Forget about those cool Thursday trends in the Baltimore Pittsburgh game, because it was just switched to Sunday. And the Sunday NFL betting trends are over here in this article this week.

The late game is a tasty entrée (sorry I did it again) with a divisional clash in Pittsburgh where the host Steelers lay 4.5 points (as of Tuesday at BetRivers) against Baltimore. The Ravens are suddenly in danger of missing the playoffs.

So here goes with more Week 12 NFL betting trends coming later.

Thanksgiving Trends

Houston at Detroit +2.5, Total 51 | Matchup Report

Houston tends to win SU as favorites, as their 17-5 SU run in their last 22 games indicates. This is a small spread against a bad team on a short week. The Lions trend OVER at home if you prefer to handicap totals.

Texans are 2-9 ATS past 11 Thursday games

OVER in 10 of Detroit’s last 11 games at home.

Washington at Dallas -3, Total 46 | Matchup Report

How pathetic is this? The winner will be 4-7 and in first place in the NFC East. The Cowboys hold a dramatic home edge over Washington in the past decades but are terrible as favorites. Washington has lost 10 of 11 Thursday road games, but Dallas is equally inept in Thursday home games. Good luck figuring this one out.

Dallas is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as the favorite.

Dallas is 19-5 SU in their last 24 games at home against Washington.

Dallas is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 divisional games.

Washington is 1-10 SU, 3-8 ATS last 11 Thursday road games.

Dallas is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Thursday home games.

Washington is 2-12 SU in their last 14 divisional games.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh -4.5, Total 45 | Matchup Report

Weird Week 12 alert! Ravens have won 12 straight in this week. Steelers are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 Thursdays. What does that mean? Everything or nothing, don’t shoot the messenger. There is also a weird Thursday angle here and beware the Ravens as dogs (9-1 ATS streak).

Steelers have won 10 straight and are 17-4 SU dating back to 2019.

Pittsburgh is now 15-2 SU in their last 17 games played in November.

Baltimore is 10-1 SU in their last 11 road games.

Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog.

Baltimore is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Thursday road games.

Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in their last 9 Thursday home games.

Good luck with your Thanksgiving Day NFL betting trends and selections. Check out matchup reports and live odds on every NFL game.

 

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.

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