Washington Dallas Pick, Thanksgiving Preview

You don’t see this every year. The winner of the Washington Football Team vs. Dallas Cowboys game will move to 4-7 and into first place in the NFC East. How sad is that? Next question: how do you turn a profit from it?

The Cowboys are coming off a last-minute win against the Minnesota Vikings, while Washington also comes off a win against the Bengals. Washington may be the better team in this game, and getting them at +3 seems like a bargain.

Dallas is just 2-10 ATS in 12 games as chalk and they are 3-8 ATS in their past 11 Thursday home games, according to Trend Dummy. I am taking Washington in this one.

Also check out my five top prop bets on this game, posted over here.

Washington Dallas Pick, Odds: Dallas -3, Total 46 (midweek at BetRivers) | Matchup Report 

Last time these teams met, Washington held the Cowboys to 142 yards of offense, and won the game 25-3 in blowout fashion. They were especially strong against the run. Ezekiel Elliott managed 45 yards on 12 carries, in what was his worst game of the season. 

Washington surprisingly has one of the top defenses in the league. They rank 7th in total defense DVOA, and have given up the 9th fewest points per game. Their pass defense has been very impressive.

Washington allows the fewest passing yards per game at 195, and will be playing against a depleted Dallas offense. Washington’s defense is the best unit in the NFC East right now. But there are questions: can Washington eat into an ugly trend that has seen them go 5-19 SU their past 24 trips to Dallas?

Why Dallas will cover the spread

The Cowboys ended a four-game slide against the Vikings on Sunday, and are right back in the sad-sack NFC East race. Andy Dalton had the best game at QB for Dallas since Dak Prescott went down, and led them on a game-winning drive with three minutes left in the game. 

As good as Washington’s defense has been, they are susceptible to giving up yards on the ground. They rank 18th in yards allowed on the ground per game, so this could be a game where Zeke takes over. He looked good against the Vikings, rushing for 103 yards on 21 carries. 

If you believe divisional trends matter, Dallas owns a 13-5 ATS run within the NFC East.

Washington Dallas pick

Washington is actually playing some good football right now. They are 2-2 in their last four games, however they could have easily won both games they lost. I think Washington is the best team in the NFC East right now, and you get them +3 odds.

I can’t trust Dallas as a favorite, as they are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as the favorite. I like Washington in this spot.