Nov 1, 2020; Orchard Park, New York, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Cam Newton (1) scores a touchdown  against the Buffalo Bills in the fourth quarter at Bills Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Week 10 Trends: Pats Big Home Dogs

New England is a TD home underdog for just the third time in 20 years and their history in this position is truly awesome for fans and football bettors alike.

Both games were in Tom Brady’s rookie season where they covered the spread both times and upset Indianapolis at home as 13-point dogs. Overall, in 13 games as home dogs since 2000, they are 11-2 ATS and won NINE times. (Read our full analysis of the New England home underdog story).

But as Baltimore arrives in Foxboro – riding their own impressive betting trends and ATS streaks – can you trust the new Patriots to keep up that underdog bite of the old Patriots? Week 10 NFL betting trends might have the answer to that question and others such as:

If the Colts always beat the Titans but always lose as underdogs, how do you bet the Thursday Night game?

If the Giants never win as home underdogs, but you don’t trust the Eagles as road favorites, how do you bet that game?

Check out the football betting angles and insights from Trend Dummy’s deep data dive on Week 10. And find the best sports betting place in your state to try football wagering.

Thursday Night Football Betting Trends

Indianapolis at Tennessee -2 Total 49 | Matchup Report

As mentioned above, Indianapolis is 19-4 SU in 23 recent games against their AFC South rivals. But they are  just 6-23 SU in their past 29 games as underdogs. What gives?

Indianapolis is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Tennessee

Indianapolis is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games when playing Tennessee

Indianapolis is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games played on a Thursday.

Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played on a Thursday.

OVER is 8-3 Tennessee’s last 11 games at home.

Jacksonville at Green Bay -14, Total 52.5 | Matchup Report

If line stays -14 or higher, it will be the biggest home spread for Green Bay since Oct. 28, 2012 at -16.5, which also happened to be against Jacksonville. The Jags don’t cover as big road dogs, the Packers don’t cover as big home chalk.

Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Green Bay.

Jaguars 1-5-1 ATS past 7 as double digit road underdogs

Packers 1-5 ATS past 6 as DD home chalk, played 5 straight UNDERs

Green Bay is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played in Week 10.

Washington at Detroit -3.5, Total 46.5 | Matchup Report

When two loser franchises meet up, one team has to win (usually). No further comment.

UNDER is 8-2 Washington’s last 10 games against Detroit.

Detroit is 1-11 SU in their last 12 games played in November.

Detroit is 2-12 SU in their last 14 games at home.

Washington is 2-10 SU in their last 12 games.

Washington is 2-10 SU in their last 12 games on the road.

OVER is 9-1 Detroit’s last 10 games at home.

Detroit is 1-11 SU, 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games played in November.

Houston at Cleveland -3, Total 54 | Matchup Report

Houston has failed to cover the past 7 times as underdogs. They catch three  points here in Cleveland – is that enough to make you feel safe backing the Texans?

Houston is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.

Houston is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games against Cleveland.

Houston is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games when playing as the underdog.

Cleveland is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games against an opponent in the AFC.

Philadelphia -3.5 at New York Giants Total 44 | Matchup Report

The Eagles have dominated the Giants (although they were lucky to beat them a few weeks ago) and the Giants are absolutely putrid as home underdogs. Now can you trust Philly with 3.5 points on the road?

Giants 1-13 SU, 2-12 ATS past 14 as home underdogs

NY Giants are 1-15 SU in their last 16 games when playing as the underdog.

NY Giants are 1-12 SU in their last 13 games against Philadelphia.

OVER is 10-1 last 11 meetings at the Giants.

NY Giants are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games at home.

Baltimore -7 at New England Total 41.5 | Matchup Report

The Patriots are 11-2 ATS since Oct 2000 as home underdogs and they are 9-4 SU so they don’t historically mess around the spread. The past seven times in this situation, the total has gone OVER in Pats games. The Ravens have won 10 straight road games and gone 11-2-2 ATS in their last 15 games on the road.

Baltimore is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 conference games.

OVER is 7-1 New England’s last 8 games played in Week 10.

OVER is 8-3 Baltimore’s last 11 games against New England.

Tampa Bay -4.5 at Carolina Total 50.5 | Matchup Report

You would anticipate a bounce game from Tampa after their Sunday night meltdown to the Saints. Typically, the Bucs are a safe OVER bet, but the past 20 meetings here have seen 14 UNDERs and just 6 OVERs. That ws before Tom Brady. The Panthers have covered five straight as underdogs and catch points here.

OVER is 17-6 Tampa Bay’s last 23 games.

OVER is 22-8 Tampa Bay’s last 30 road games.

OVER is 12-4 Tampa Bay’s last 16 divisional games

Tampa Bay is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in November.

Carolina is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games at home.

LA Chargers +2.5 at Miami Total 48 | Matchup Report

When these teams meet, UNDERs happen. In 16 recent meetings, the UNDER is 15-1, including 7 in a row here.

LA Chargers are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 conference games.

Chargers have lost 7 straight as underdogs SU

Miami is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games.

Miami is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 conference games.

Miami is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as the favorite.

Denver +5 at Las Vegas Total 52 | Matchup Report

Fave and UNDER?

UNDER is 9-2 Denver’s last 11 games against Las Vegas.

Denver is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against Las Vegas.

Buffalo +2.5 at Arizona Total 56 | Matchup Report

Buffalo trends heavily UNDER on the road and as an underdog. Check, check. However, watch that weird angle where Buffalo faces NFC West teams (OVER is 17-3) and weirder OVER trend before bye weeks.

OVER is 17-3 Buffalo’s last 20 games against an opponent in the NFC West division.

Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Arizona.

UNDER is 14-6 Buffalo’s last 20 road games.

Buffalo is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games played in November.

UNDER is 18-5 Buffalo’s last 23 games when playing as the underdog.

Bills 8-2 OVER past 10 seasons before a bye week

Cincinnati +7.5 at Pittsburgh Total 47.5 | Matchup Report

Pittsburgh keeps escaping with wins and they face a Bengals team that never wins on the road (0-15-1 SU) but covers on the road (11-5 ATS).

Bengals lost and failed to cover past four seasons after a bye week

Pittsburgh is 13-1 SU in their last 14 games against Cincinnati.

Pittsburgh is 13-2 SU in their last 15 games played in November.

Cincinnati is 1-13 SU in their last 14 divisional games.

Seattle +2 at LA Rams Total 55.5 | Matchup Report

Seattle is 7-1 ATS in their past 8 November road games as an underdog and overall they are on a recent 11-3 ATS when catching points.

UNDER is 12-2 LA Rams’ last 14 games as the favorite.

LA Rams are 15-4 SU in their last 19 games at home.

Seattle is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as the underdog.

Seattle is 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games played in Week 10.

San Francisco +9 at New Orleans Total 50 | Matchup Report

Lots of OVER trends and the 49ers have done well ATS against the Saints lately, in addition to biting hard as a dog (7-3 ATS past 10).

OVER is 10-2 New Orleans’ last 12 games as the favorite.

OVER is 9-3 San Francisco’s last 12 games against New Orleans.

San Francisco is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs New Orleans.

New Orleans is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games

New Orleans is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games played in Week 10.

Monday Night Football – Minnesota -2.5 at Chicago Total 45  | Matchup Report

The Bears always seem to have the Vikings number at Soldier Field (16-3 SU past 19 tries). So even with a sketchy starting QB situation, Chicago is an interesting pick here. And check out that Vikings record in Monday Night road games. Gag.

Chicago is 16-3 SU past 19 games at home vs Minnesota.

Chicago is 10-2 ATS past 12 games at home to Minnesota.

Chicago is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Monday.

Minnesota is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Monday Night road games.

Minnesota is 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games played on a Monday.

UNDER is 12-3 Chicago’s last 15 home games

Chicago is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 divisional games.

UNDER is 11-4 Chicago’s last 15 games as the underdog

More Week 10 NFL betting trends coming soon….

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.

Upcoming Games

Dec 2nd, 3:40 PM

Baltimore +10.5 -110

Pittsburgh -10.5 -110

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Dec 6th, 1:00 PM

Cleveland +5.5 -110

Tennessee -5.5 -110

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Dec 6th, 1:00 PM

Indianapolis -3 -110

Houston +3 -110

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Dec 6th, 1:00 PM

Detroit +3 -115

Chicago -3 -115

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Dec 6th, 1:00 PM

Jacksonville +9.5 -110

Minnesota -9.5 -110

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Dec 6th, 1:00 PM

Las Vegas -7.5 -105

NY Jets +7.5 -105

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Dec 6th, 1:00 PM

New Orleans -3 -105

Atlanta +3 -105

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Dec 6th, 1:00 PM

Cincinnati +11 -110

Miami -11 -110

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Dec 6th, 4:05 PM

NY Giants +10 -110

Seattle -10 -110

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Dec 6th, 4:05 PM

LA Rams -3 -120

Arizona +3 -120

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Dec 6th, 4:25 PM

New England 0 -110

LA Chargers 0 -110

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Dec 6th, 4:25 PM

Philadelphia +7.5 -110

Green Bay -7.5 -110

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Dec 6th, 8:20 PM

Denver +14 -110

Kansas City -14 -110

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Dec 7th, 5:00 PM

Washington +9.5 -110

Pittsburgh -9.5 -110

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Dec 7th, 8:15 PM

Buffalo -2.5 -110

San Francisco +2.5 -110

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Dec 8th, 8:05 PM

Dallas

Baltimore

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