Sep 20, 2020; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA;  Detroit Lions wide receiver Marvin Jones (11) catches a touchdown pass while being defended by Green Bay Packers outside linebacker Christian Kirksey (58) in the first quarter at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

Week 10 NFL OVER UNDER Picks

Four totals on the edge of 50 (or surpassing it) are the focus of Week 10 NFL OVER UNDER picks. Maybe you’ve already got your picks in for Week 10 of the 2020 NFL regular season, but by focusing only on point spreads, moneylines or fantasy, you’re robbing yourself of potential opportunities to make money on over/unders.

Here are several totals for this week that are worthy of your attention. For live odds and OVER UNDER line moves during the week, watch our NFL odds page.

Last week’s record: 16-15-2

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (51.5)

This has come down several points, but I don’t fully understand why considering how well Jake Luton performed in place of Gardner Minshew II last week for Jacksonville. The Jags have scored 54 points the last two weeks, and Green Bay’s run defense is weak enough to let Jacksonville get balanced with James Robinson and put up some points.

Still, it should be a blowout as Aaron Rodgers rips apart one of the league’s worst pass defenses. The Packers should put up 40 alone here as this one cruises over the total. Matchup Stats 

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (50.5)

There’s little reason to believe Tom Brady and the loaded Bucs offense won’t bounce back from an embarrassing performance in Week 9, especially considering the novice Panthers defense has surrendered at least 25 points in three consecutive weeks.

Meanwhile, the Bucs’ defense has fallen way off lately and will now have to deal with an increasingly healthy Christian McCaffrey. These two combined for 48 in their last meeting but that should shoot up by 5-10 points here. Matchup Stats 

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (48)

We’re hitting the overs hard this week! I think oddsmakers are still giving too much credit to a Miami defense that was playing above its head before struggling in Week 9, and both offenses have been consistently good for 25-30 points per week of late. Watch for a lightshow between two rookies against vulnerable defenses in a shootout. Matchup Stats 

BUFFALO BILLS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (56)

This could easily hit the 60s, but that doesn’t change the fact the total is too high. It could also easily fall well short of the 50 mark, and I think oddsmakers are looking too closely at high-scoring Week 9 games for both teams.

The Bills have scored fewer than 25 points in four of their last five games and their defense has surrendered fewer than 27 in three of their last four. Meanwhile, the Cards have given up 10 or fewer points in two of their last four outings. Matchup Stats 

Brad Gagnon has been passionate about both sports and mass media since he was in diapers -- a passion that won't die until he's in them again. He was a lead contributor to an earlier incarnation of NationalFootballPost.com and was happy to return when new management revived the brand in 2020. Based in Toronto, he's covered the NFL since 2008 and has been a national NFL writer at Bleacher Report since 2012. He despises all 32 NFL teams equally but remains a fan of the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He can be reached at Brad@NationalFootballPost.com

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