We’ll be here to guide you with weekly picks against the spread every week, and we’re still well above .500 approaching the midway pole. Here are fresh takes for Week 10 NFL picks, with odds coming as of midweek at Draft Kings, official betting partners of the NFL.
Check the current odds during the week as these lines are moving as action rolls in.
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5): Bengals
The Texans are riding a high following that thrilling Week 9 victory over Tampa Bay, but that’s exactly why a young Houston team is in trouble now. On the road against a streaking and experienced Bengals squad, the Texans are due for an absolute dud in the wake of an emotional high. Remember that this team still clearly lacks talent and experience overall and has been playing above its head. Bengals roll in blowout fashion.
Detroit Lions (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers: Lions
Sometimes you just get clarity on a simple one due to the circumstances. Detroit is coming off a bye following a critical bounce-back performance against the Raiders, while the comically inconsistent and unreliable Chargers are coming off a short week and a win over the Jets. The yo-yo keeps yo-yo-ing for a Los Angeles team that isn’t particularly good at home anyway. Lions by double digits.
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-7): Broncos
The disappointing and banged-up Bills have failed to cover five consecutive threads, but oddsmakers continue to pump them up. Against a desperate and well-rested Denver team in prime time, there’s no reason to think Buffalo pulls away here. This team has lost my trust.
Archived Week 10 NFL betting picks article from Nov. 11, 2022
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers: Saints
Welcome to favorites week here at the National Football Post! That Steelers win over the Buccaneers is looking more and more like an anomaly and the Saints are a much better team than their record indicates. As long as this is sub-3, I’m all over New Orleans.
Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills (-3.5): Bills
Buy down to -3 if you can, but the Bills are too good not to bounce back from a tough loss in emphatic fashion at home. They’re also at least a neutral-site touchdown better than the overrated Vikes, who are due for a dud.
Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) at Green Bay Packers: Cowboys
I’m done giving the Packers any benefit of the doubt. Dallas is a far better team and is coming off its bye. I’m just not sure the Packers have anything left in them right now. This could be ugly.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5): Eagles
Philadelphia just generally destroys everyone right now, and the Eagles hammered Washington on the road earlier this season. Why should we expect a different result in Philly?
Archived Week 10 NFL picks article from Nov. 14, 2021
2021 RECORD: 64-71-1
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-7.5) AT MIAMI DOLPHINS: DOLPHINS
The Ravens have been cutting it close all season. Now, they’re traveling on short rest. That hook is too risky for me. Miami might be sucking this year, but the team still has plenty of talent.
BUFFALO BILLS (-11.5) AT NEW YORK JETS: BILLS
All five Bills wins this season have come by 15-plus points. I think they rebound in strong fashion from that embarrassment against the Jaguars with a blowout against a feisty but low-talent team.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-9.5) AT WASHINGTON: BUCS
When coming off extra rest, Tom Brady and the Bucs have won five consecutive games by an average margin of 20 points. Thrilled that I’m not even giving up double digits here.
ATLANTA FALCONS AT DALLAS COWBOYS (-8): COWBOYS
The Cowboys have too much talent not to bounce back from a brutal loss, and the Falcons aren’t reliable. Dallas by a double-digit margin.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT TENNESSEE TITANS (-3): SAINTS
The Saints have the defensive talent to take advantage of Derrick Henry’s absence for a Titans team that is simply due for a come-back-to-earth game. New Orleans wins this one straight-up.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-10): COLTS
The Colts are putting it together, while the Jags are unlikely to see lightning strike twice. They’re still the worst team in football and now they’re on the road against a desperate team gaining momentum. Every Colts win this season has come by a double-digit margin, while eight of Jacksonville’s last 10 losses have come by at least 12 points. Blowout.
DETROIT LIONS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-8): LIONS
I get the feeling Dan Campbell’s Lions will have some fire in them coming off their bye week. Meanwhile, the banged-up Steelers are operating on short rest after reminding us Monday night against the Chicago Bears that they’re quite flawed. Too many points here.
CLEVELAND BROWNS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-1.5): PATRIOTS
The Browns are in rough shape, while the Patriots seem to be finding a groove. Bill Belichick won’t mess around against his former team, and a Pats squad that hasn’t lost in regulation since nearly beating the mighty Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4 will prevail.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-3): CHARGERS
The Chargers are a substantially better team than Minnesota. I truly don’t understand why oddsmakers would view them as being essentially equal with this line.
CAROLINA PANTHERS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (-10.5): PANTHERS
I wouldn’t spend anything on this game considering Arizona’s injury questions, but it’s safe to say Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are far from 100 percent. I think we’re also forgetting the impact an increasingly healthy Christian McCaffrey can make for Carolina. They’ll hang around.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT DENVER BRONCOS (-3): EAGLES
The Broncos aren’t likely to sustain whatever the hell happened last week in Dallas, and the absence of key offensive linemen Garett Bolles and Graham Glasgow could be a huge factor against an Eagles squad with a strong and experienced defensive front.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3.5): SEAHAWKS
I’m on Seattle even if Aaron Rodgers returns for the Packers. Russell Wilson won’t let the Seahawks fade out of contention, and the Packers are overrated and shorthanded regardless. Love that hook.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-2.5) AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: CHIEFS
Honestly, everything here points to the Raiders. The Chiefs have covered just four spreads in their last 20 games and have multiple problems right now on both sides of the ball. Still, I’d have to buy an outright Raiders win to lay these points and I don’t feel comfortable doing that with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid having their backs against the wall.
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-3.5) AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: RAMS
I was also tempted to take the hook with the 49ers here so I wouldn’t bet this game. Ultimately, I’ve lost too much trust for San Francisco and they’re running into the Rams at a bad time considering L.A.’s brutal Week 9 experience against the Titans.
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Archived Week 10 NFL picks article from Nov. 12, 2020
2020 RECORD: 66-60-3
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-1) AT TENNESSEE TITANS: TITANS
The Titans have covered in their last four home games and are simply a better, more trustworthy team. Why in the world are they laying just a single point at home against an erratic opponent traveling on short rest on this Week 10 Thursday Nighter?
HOUSTON TEXANS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3.5): TEXANS
The Texans defense sucks but Cleveland’s just so damn depleted and Deshaun Watson is a hell of a lot better than Baker Mayfield. Dude quietly has a 116.0 passer rating in his last six games, and he should keep this within a field goal.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (-13): PACKERS
Looking for rookie Jags quarterback Jake Luton to come back to earth against a pretty strong pass defense, and expecting the league’s highest-rated passer, Aaron Rodgers, to light up a horrendous Jacksonville pass D in a blowout.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3.5) AT NEW YORK GIANTS: GIANTS
Don’t do it. Skip it if you can, and don’t look back. But if you have to deal with this NFC Least monstrosity, take the field goal and the hook with a Giants team that hasn’t lost by more than a field goal in any of its last five games. Philly is still quite a mess, despite their improving injury situation.