Oct 25, 2020; Nashville, Tennessee, USA;  Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin talks with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (7) just prior to the start of the game against the Tennessee Titans during the first half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

Week 11 NFL Betting Trends

Another week, another double-digit road favorite to bet against. And this time, it’s the Pittsburgh Steelers again riding their 1-13 ATS streak as big road chalk as they visit Jacksonville (a team that nearly won as double-digit underdogs in Green Bay last week).

Editor Note: it was originally posted as 1-14 ATS record for Steelers, the correct trend is 1-13 ATS.

The other top underdog trend of Week 10 – do not mess with the patriots as home dogs – also hit as New England upset the Baltimore Ravens at home. That win made them 10-4 SU and 12-2 ATS in their past 14 games in that situation. They are small road favorites at Houston in Week 11.

This week, Miami is a road favorite for the first time in more than three years and Kansas City looks to extend an impressive ATS streak in divisional road games (18-4 ATS) at Las Vegas. First up is the Thursday Nighter where the Seahawks seem to always win and the Cardinals seem to always lose.

[ See also: Live NFL Odds | Best Sportsbook Reviews ]

Week 11 NFL Betting Trends

Arizona +3 at Seattle Total 58 | Matchup Report

Arizona has covered five straight trips to Seattle and gets a field goal to work with here on Thursday Night. Is this a perfect spot for the Cardinals to sag after their Hail Mary win and a perfect spot for the Seahawks to bounce after consecutive losses? Seattle has won 8 straight Thursday night games.

Arizona is 8-1-2 ATS past 11 games as road dogs

Arizona is 3-12 SU in their last 15 games played on a Thursday.

Arizona is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games at Seattle.

Seattle is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 divisional games.

Seattle is 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games played on a Thursday.

Atlanta +4.5 at New Orleans Total 51.5 | Matchup Report

The Falcons won and covered four straight as divisional road underdogs and Drew Brees won’t play.

Falcons 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS past 11 games after a bye week

Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road

New England -2.5 at Houston Total 47.5 | Matchup Report

The Pats were road favorite all eight games in 2019, but this is just the second time in 2020. Can they win as road chalk a week after winning as home dogs?

Houston is 2-8 SU and ATS in 10 recent games as home underdogs.

New England is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against Houston.

Houston are 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games when playing as the underdog.

Detroit +3 at Carolina Total 49 | Matchup Report

Some bad teams manage to cover spreads. Not the Lions. Some bad teams manage to cover spreads at home. Not Carolina.

Detroit is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as the underdog.

Carolina is 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 home games.

Philadelphia +3.5 at Cleveland Total 47.5 | Matchup Report

Maybe their offense fizzles. Maybe their defense sizzles. Whatever the reason, the Eagles are UNDER machine in November, UNDER 12-2 past 14 games. The Eagles have won five straight vs Cleveland and never been underdogs to the Browns until now.

Cleveland is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games at home

Tennessee +6.5 at Baltimore Total 49 | Matchup Report

Titans have lost 8 straight Week 11 games. Why? Who knows, but buyer beware. Look at the UNDER trends instead.

UNDER is 14-3 Baltimore’s last 17 games vs AFC South division.

UNDER is 15-6 Tennessee’s last 21 games vs Baltimore

UNDER is 9-2 Tennessee’s last 11 games at Baltimore

Thursday – Pittsburgh -10 at Jacksonville Total 47.5 | Matchup Report

Pittsburgh is double digit road favorites again. And once again, we need to tell you – the Steelers are now 1-13 ATS in this situation. One of these days, Pittsburgh will blow a team out. Wanna bet it happens in Week 11? The Jaguars haven’t been double digit home underdog since Dec. 23, 2013 vs the Patriots and its only happened four times in franchise history. They are 4-0 ATS.

UNDER is 14-4 Pittsburgh’s last 18 road games.

UNDER is 8-2 Pittsburgh’s last 10 games at Jacksonville

Cincinnati +1.5 at Washington Total 46.5 | Matchup Report

Is this the week the Bengals end a 17-game road winless streak (0-16-1 SU) or is the sportsbook trying to trick you? The Bengals have won five of their past 33 games. Washington has won five of their past 22 games, so they MUST be better…

Washington is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as the favorite.

New York Jets +9 at LA Chargers Total 47 | Matchup Report

Maybe the terrible Jets have been historically excellent after a bye week, heal up, get some coaching? Not exactly, they are 1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS after a bye.

LA Chargers are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games against an opponent in the AFC.

Miami -3 at Denver Total 45.5 | Matchup Report

This is the first time since Sept. 24, 2017 that Miami is a road favorite. But they have been hot and riding all kinds of positive ATS trends.

Miami has covered five straight in Denver and is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs Denver.

Miami is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games.

Miami is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games

Miami is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 conference games.

Kansas City -7 at Las Vegas Total 56.5 | Matchup Report

Here’s a weird one – Kansas City has scored exactly 40 points the past two seasons after their bye week. Here’s a better one – the Chiefs are 18-4 ATS in their past 22 divisional road games.

Kansas City is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games

Kansas City is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games at the Raiders.

Las Vegas is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 divisional games.

UNDER is 19-5 Las Vegas’ last 24 divisional games.

Green Bay +2.5 at Indianapolis Total 51.5 | Matchup Report

Green Bay has been a road underdog twice this season and won each time (at Vikings, at Saints). But the Colts have owned the NFC lately and own a 7-2 ATS mark over the years vs the Packers. And there might not be anything legit to Indy’s terrific record in Week 11 games, but its worth knowing.

Indianapolis is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games

Green Bay is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs Indianapolis.

Indianapolis is 15-5 SU, 14-6 ATS in their last 20 Week 11 games.

Dallas +7.5 at Minnesota Total 48 | Matchup Report

Dallas finally covered a spread in Week 9 (1-8 ATS on the year) and comes off a bye week. The Cowboys have played OVER the total in 8 straight years after their bye week and are 12-1 SU in Week 11 games.

But they have been horrible against the Vikings (1-10 ATS overall) and failing to cover seven straight here in Minny.

Minnesota is 10-2 SU in their last 12 games played in November.

Dallas is 12-1 SU in their last 13 games played in Week 11.

Dallas is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games against Minnesota.

Dallas failed to cover 6 straight on road overall and 7 straight at Minnesota.

Dallas is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 conference games.

Minnesota is 17-5 SU in their last 22 games as the favorite.

Monday Night Football Betting Trends

LA Rams +3.5 at Tampa Bay Total 47.5 | Matchup Report

Here’s another weird Week 11 pattern that makes me scratch my head. Tampa Bay has been a terrible team for much of the past quarter century, but check out the record in Week 11 – 20-4-2 ATS). Why? Who knows. But it’s a stat worth knowing.

OVER is 14-3 Tampa Bay’s last 17 conference games

UNDER is 14-6 LA Rams’ last 20 games.

LA Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Tampa Bay.

LA Rams are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 conference games

LA Rams are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games played on a Monday.

More Week 11 NFL betting trends shortly…..

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.

Bet Week 11 Now!

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Upcoming Games

Sep 20th, 8:15 PM

Detroit +7 -111

Green Bay -7 -111


Sep 23rd, 8:20 PM

Carolina -4.5 -110

Houston +4.5 -110


Sep 26th, 1:00 PM

Indianapolis +3 -115

Tennessee -3 -115


Sep 26th, 1:00 PM

LA Chargers +7.5 -107

Kansas City -7.5 -107


Sep 26th, 1:00 PM

Washington +7 -102

Buffalo -7 -102


Sep 26th, 1:00 PM

Chicago +8.5 -107

Cleveland -8.5 -107


Sep 26th, 1:00 PM

Atlanta +2.5 -107

NY Giants -2.5 -107


Sep 26th, 1:00 PM

Cincinnati +6.5 -107

Pittsburgh -6.5 -107


Sep 26th, 1:00 PM

Baltimore -7.5 -110

Detroit +7.5 -110


Sep 26th, 1:00 PM

New Orleans +3 -110

New England -3 -110


Sep 26th, 1:00 PM

Arizona -6 -110

Jacksonville +6 -110


Sep 26th, 4:05 PM

Miami +1 -107

Las Vegas -1 -107


Sep 26th, 4:05 PM

NY Jets +7.5 -107

Denver -7.5 -107


Sep 26th, 4:25 PM

Tampa Bay +2.5 -110

LA Rams -2.5 -110


Sep 26th, 4:25 PM

Seattle -2.5 -107

Minnesota +2.5 -107


Sep 26th, 8:20 PM

Green Bay +3 -107

San Francisco -3 -107


Sep 27th, 8:15 PM

Philadelphia +3.5 -110

Dallas -3.5 -110