Oct 3, 2021; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears running back David Montgomery (32) runs with the football in the first half against the Detroit Lions at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports

Week 11 NFL OVER UNDER picks

Maybe you’ve already got your picks in for the 2023 NFL regular season, but by focusing only on point spreads, moneylines or football props, you’re robbing yourself of potential opportunities to make money on Week 11 NFL over/unders.

Here are several totals for Week 11 that are worthy of your attention. Watch for line moves during the week in our live NFL odds section, where we also provide full statistical breakdowns and matchup reports for every game.

Odds are Tuesday lines from Draft Kings Sportsbook,  check them out during the week for line moves and awesome new bettor bonuses.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (48): Over

This might seem a little high considering Chicago’s offensive struggles of late, but Justin Fields should be back and that offense can put up points when it is rolling. A team that scored 30-plus points twice in October is due, we all know the Lions can score and both defenses are pretty weak. Watch for this one to contain 50-something points, at least.

Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers (44): Over

The Chargers have scored 27 or more points in three consecutive games, and both teams should be desperate in this spot. Both defenses are both a little banged up, too, and both offenses are getting healthier.

Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins (46): Under

Four consecutive Raiders games have contained 42 or fewer points, and Miami has been limited to 17 or fewer points in two of its last three outings. This has 24-17 written all over it, at best.

 

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Archived NFL Week 11 OVER UNDER picks article from Nov. 17, 2022

Washington Commanders at Houston Texans (41): OVER

Come on. With Taylor Heinicke, the Commanders put up 32 last week, and the Texans have given up a combined 53 points the last two weeks. Washington’s defense is only so-so on paper too, so this one should hit the mid-40s.

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (41): UNDER

The Broncos have scored more than 20 points just twice this season, so it’s hard to believe Russell Wilson and Co. will suddenly explode now. But that defense has also surrendered more than 20 points just once, and the Raiders have scored 40 total points the last three weeks.

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (47.5): UNDER

Dallas has the league’s fifth-ranked scoring defense, Minnesota’s defense is above average too, and I feel like the Vikings could be due to come back to earth after that high in Buffalo. In fact, both teams played high-scoring games last week so we’re going anti-trend here.

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Archived Week 11 NFL OVER UNDER picks article from Nov. 16, 2021

2021 RECORD: 21-23

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: 49

The Packers defense is on fire, while the offense has averaged just 12.0 points per game the last two weeks. And while Aaron Rodgers can still light it up at any point, the reality is Green Bay hasn’t scored more than 27 points since Week 3. The Vikings are unpredictable as well, but I think this one is extremely unlikely to hit the 50 mark.

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs: 56.5

I get that both offenses exploded last week, but the two defenses allowed a combined 17 points. It’s also possible that performance was somewhat of an anomaly for Patrick Mahomes and Co., who have struggled for much of the year. The Chiefs D has been much better beyond just that Week 10 effort against the Las Vegas Raiders. I don’t think this one hits the 50s either.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 50

This one, however, should exceed that mark. The well-rested Giants have held up well on offense despite a slew of injuries, while the depleted Bucs defense has surrendered 65 points the last two weeks and might be without standout Vita Vea here. Throw in that Tom Brady and Co. should be fired up after back-to-back losses and this is likely to be a shootout in prime time.

Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears: 46

The Ravens rarely lay two eggs in a row. They have too much offensive firepower and experience. They’ve scored more than 30 points in three of their last five games but put up just 10 last week so I’m expecting an explosion against a defense that has given up at least 24 points in four straight games. This is also a matchup between two bottom-12 scoring defenses. No idea why the total is just 46.

Archived Week 11 NFL OVER UNDER picks from Nov. 18, 2020

Last week’s record: 18-17-2

Week 11 NFL OVER UNDER picks

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (45.5)

This is quite high considering that Browns games have contained a total of 39 points the last two weeks combined. Last week was a bit of an exception because of weather but I wonder if oddsmakers are letting that cloud their opinion of a shorthanded offense that hasn’t been crisp and a defense that can ball. I’m expecting low-40s here.

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TENNESSEE TITANS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (49)

Seven of nine Tennessee games and five of nine Baltimore games have contained 48-plus points this season, and an angry Ravens team should be fired up to make a statement against a quietly vulnerable defense. Baltimore is also pretty banged up defensively so this one should easily surpass the 50 mark.

NEW YORK JETS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (47)

The Jets offense was relatively impressive before their bye week, and it might be a good thing that Joe Flacco is getting another start. But the New York D has still given up 30-plus points in back-to-back games and Justin Herbert and Co. are too talented not to bounce back from a rough outing in this spot. This one should hit the 50s.

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (51.5)

A touch low here as well. The Colts, who have scored more than 30 points in three of their last four games, should be able to get the running game rolling against a poor run D. Meanwhile, the Packers are the Packers. They put up just 24 points against Jacksonville but haven’t scored fewer than 30 points in back-to-back weeks since 2019.

MIAMI DOLPHINS AT DENVER BRONCOS (45)

Why is this so low? The Dolphins have averaged 31.6 points per game during their five-game winning streak and Denver has surrendered 30-plus points in four straight games. The Broncos offense might only need to hit the double digits for this one to go over the total.