Week 11 Picks: Cowboys, Bills, Bears

We’re here to guide you with weekly picks against the spread every week, and we’re still well above .500 approaching the midway pole. Here are 15 fresh takes for Week 11 NFL picks, with odds coming from FanDuel and Draft Kings, both official betting partners of the NFL.

For totals bettors, check out the OVER UNDER picks article from earlier this week, with five predictions. Get the latest NFL odds and matchup reports on every NFL game and read Trend Dummy’s deep data dive into Week 11 trends.

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-8.5): Bills

OK, it’s time for the way-better-than-their-record Bills to take out some anger and frustration on an inferior team in front of a home crowd. However, watch for a potential site relocation due to the Buffalo forecast.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3.5): Patriots

I like Bill Belichick with two weeks to prepare for a familiar opponent, even if said opponent has also had two weeks to prepare as well. Buy back half a point if possible to be safe, but this is all New England at home against a still-unreliable Jets squad.

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3): Bears

The Bears can suddenly put up POINTS, baby, and they should run all over an overrated Falcons team. Chicago is due for a break and we’re seeing the true Falcons of late.

Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings: Cowboys

This is the ultimate letdown spot for an overrated Vikings team coming off a high against an angry opponent coming off a tough loss. Dallas wins, maybe without much trouble.

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Archived Week 11 NFL OVER UNDER picks article from Nov. 18, 2021

2021 RECORD: 73-76-1

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7) AT ATLANTA FALCONS: FALCONS

The Falcons were playing a lot better before laying an egg against the Cowboys in Week 10. I think they’ll still have something in them against a team traveling on extremely short rest with a rookie quarterback. This should be a close game.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-1): EAGLES 

I’m losing trust in the Saints, while the Eagles are finding a bit of a grove. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has a 108.3 passer rating the last two weeks. At home, his team should take care of business in a close game.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3) AT NEW YORK JETS: DOLPHINS

The Dolphins are the way better team and they’ve won two in a row, while the Jets have surrendered 90 points in consecutive losses. Why in the world is Miami laying just a field goal?

WASHINGTON AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3.5): WASHINGTON

No way I’m giving up a hook with Cam Newton and the Panthers. Not after Washington looked rejuvenated in a season-saving Week 10 victory over the defending champs.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT BUFFALO BILLS (-7): COLTS

The Colts haven’t lost a game in regulation since Week 3. They’ll hang in with a Bills team that is due for a close win for once. Buffalo by a touchdown at the very most.

DETROIT LIONS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-11): BROWNS

The Browns really need this and the Lions just won their Super Bowl. It was encouraging to see them play the Steelers close, but that it actually makes it more likely they get trounced here. Bad teams don’t often string together decent performances.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-6) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: 49ERS

Same logic applies to the Jaguars, who are very unlikely to cover three spreads in a row simply because they’re a bad football team. The 49ers also really need this and should take care of business with just six points on the line.

HOUSTON TEXANS AT TENNESSEE TITANS (-10): TITANS

The Texans haven’t won since Week 1, and the Titans haven’t lost in regulation since that same week. You never know with these divisional games, but Houston is just so bad and the Titans are the hottest team in the NFL.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-2) AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS: PACKERS

The Packers have covered nine consecutive spreads. That streak will eventually end, but I’m not betting on that happening when they’re virtually in a pick’em situation with an inferior opponent.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-5) AT CHICAGO BEARS: RAVENS

The Ravens are due a blowout and the Bears are ideal for that. Don Martindale’s defense should make Justin Fields’ life miserable.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-1) AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: BENGALS

I’ve lost all faith in the Raiders, who have seemingly been overcome by the tumult surrounding the organization. The Bengals have also lost back-to-back games but have given us a lot more to believe in. They’re also operating on extra rest.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-2.5) AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: SEAHAWKS

No way I’m betting on back-to-back Russell Wilson losses with his back against the wall. A bounce-back makes a lot of sense, especially at home as his injured finger continues to progress. Throw in Arizona’s critical injuries and this is a no-brainer.

DALLAS COWBOYS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-2.5): CHIEFS

Also no way I’m betting on Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid to lose after what we saw from them in Week 10. And if you’re taking the Cowboys with less than a field goal in your back pocket, that’s exactly what you have to believe.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-5.5): STEELERS

The Steelers haven’t lost since exiting a Week 2-4 rut. They play everybody close, and the Chargers haven’t been right on either side of the ball. COVID-19 situations exist for both teams here and they merit monitoring, but I’m betting it’ll be a field-goal game either way.

NEW YORK GIANTS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-11): BUCCANEERS

Tom Brady has always struggled with the Giants, but he’ll be out to make a statement in this spot. An 11-point spread still scares me with the Giants gaining steam and getting healthier, but I get the feeling the Bucs will get their act together here.

Archived NFL Week 11 picks article from Nov. 22, 2020

2020 RECORD: 74-65-4

ARIZONA CARDINALS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3): CARDINALS

The Seahawks have covered the spread just twice in their last nine meetings with the Cardinals, who are coming on strong following a dramatic Week 10 victory. The Seahawks don’t look right at all and that defense doesn’t appear ready to deal with Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins.

ATLANTA FALCONS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-5): FALCONS

The Falcons have once again turned their season around. It’s probably too late, but that doesn’t mean they can’t beat the Saints in the Superdome for the second time in as many opportunities. They likely won’t have to deal with Drew Brees coming off their bye, and they might get Calvin Ridley back. They’ll keep this close even if they don’t pull off the upset.

Why should Washington be favored over anybody right now? They’re down to their third quarterback, Alex Smith looks rusty and they might also be down to their third-string left tackle. They’re a mess, while the Bengals have hung with superior opponents pretty consistently this season.

DETROIT LIONS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (-1.5): PANTHERS

I just trust the Panthers a lot more, and it occurs to me that Teddy Bridgewater is less likely to be negatively impacted by his knee injury than Matthew Stafford is by an injury on his throwing hand. The Panthers are simply the better team and it’s basically a pick’em in Carolina, for some reason.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-2) AT HOUSTON TEXANS: TEXANS

The Patriots have been terrible on the road this season and there’s no comparing Cam Newton and Deshaun Watson at this point. Watson should light up one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL as the Texans remind us that the Pats are no longer a good team.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3): BROWNS

Did you see what Daniel Jones, Alfred Morris and Wayne Gallman did to the Eagles defense? Now it’s Baker Mayfield, who is inconsistent but due for a strong performance against a bad D. Carson Wentz is also too much of a mess to be getting only a field goal against a superior team on the road.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-10) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: STEELERS

Thought long and hard about the Jags here after they nearly stunned the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau last week, but Pittsburgh has made it clear it isn’t looking past Jacksonville and recent surprisingly close performances from both teams might cause the Steelers to smarten up and take care of business. Besides, Ben Roethlisberger is hot and the Jags pass D is a disaster.

Buyer beware on Trend Dummy’s concern that the Steelers are 1-13 ATS since 1980 when laying double digits on the road.

TENNESSEE TITANS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (-6.5): TITANS

The Ravens have been gutted in the trenches, which doesn’t bode well for a matchup with Derrick Henry. The Titans won in Baltimore in last year’s playoffs and this matchup is much more favorable than that one. The Ravens just aren’t right on either side of the ball, and the resilient Titans should stick around at the very least.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3.5) AT DENVER BRONCOS: DOLPHINS

This is a scary one, especially since we haven’t seen the Dolphins as a road favorite in more than three years, but the Broncos are such a train wreck at the moment that I don’t have much of a choice. Drew Lock has been a disaster and is going up against a top-10 pass defense. That hook is daunting enough to buy half a point back if possible, but the pick is still Miami.

NEW YORK JETS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-8.5): JETS

Can’t believe I’m doing this, but the Jets had tons of fight in them before the bye against better teams than the Chargers, who are just so damn mistake-prone and don’t have much of a home-field advantage in L.A. I can’t bet on the Bolts pulling away, and the backdoor cover would likely be on the table anyway.

DALLAS COWBOYS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-7): COWBOYS

Can’t believe I’m doing this either, but Andy Dalton and Chidobe Awuzie are set to return for Dallas and Zack Martin likely got a lot healthier during the bye. The Cowboys hung with the unbeaten Steelers before that, and Minnesota is operating on short rest. Might be time for an appearance from Bad Kirk Cousins.

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-2): PACKERS

The Indy defense has been sick, but now it has to deal with the league’s highest-rated passer in Aaron Rodgers. Considering that the Packers are coming off a rough performance, and that they’ve bounced back strong after their last two duds, it’s odd that the Colts are laying points. I don’t trust Philip Rivers at all in this spot.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7.5) AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: CHIEFS

This game was off most boards (including SugarHouse) Wednesday night because the Raiders put practically their entire starting defense on the reserve/COVID-19 list, but I’d be taking the Chiefs so long as the line is below 10. The Chiefs will be fired up to send a message against the only team that has defeated them in the last calendar year.

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-4): BUCS

I’d prefer a three-point spread here if possible, and that’s where it was earlier in the week. Still, Tom Brady’s had extra time to prepare for somewhat of a one-dimensional defense, and the pressure-averse Jared Goff will have his hands full with one of the fiercest defensive fronts in the NFL.

Week 11 NFL Picks