Oct 11, 2020; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) runs the ball as Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) chases during the game at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Week 11 NFL Picks

We’re here to guide you with weekly picks against the spread every week, and we’re still well above .500 approaching the midway pole. Here are 14 fresh takes for Week 11 NFL picks, with odds coming from SugarHouse NJ and BetRivers.

For totals bettors, check out the OVER UNDER picks article from earlier this week, with five predictions.

Get the latest NFL odds and matchup reports on every NFL game and read Trend Dummy’s deep data dive into Week 11 trends.

2020 RECORD: 74-65-4

ARIZONA CARDINALS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3): CARDINALS

The Seahawks have covered the spread just twice in their last nine meetings with the Cardinals, who are coming on strong following a dramatic Week 10 victory. The Seahawks don’t look right at all and that defense doesn’t appear ready to deal with Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins.

ATLANTA FALCONS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-5): FALCONS

The Falcons have once again turned their season around. It’s probably too late, but that doesn’t mean they can’t beat the Saints in the Superdome for the second time in as many opportunities. They likely won’t have to deal with Drew Brees coming off their bye, and they might get Calvin Ridley back. They’ll keep this close even if they don’t pull off the upset.

CINCINNATI BENGALS AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (-1.5): BENGALS

Why should Washington be favored over anybody right now? They’re down to their third quarterback, Alex Smith looks rusty and they might also be down to their third-string left tackle. They’re a mess, while the Bengals have hung with superior opponents pretty consistently this season.

DETROIT LIONS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (-1.5): PANTHERS

I just trust the Panthers a lot more, and it occurs to me that Teddy Bridgewater is less likely to be negatively impacted by his knee injury than Matthew Stafford is by an injury on his throwing hand. The Panthers are simply the better team and it’s basically a pick’em in Carolina, for some reason.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-2) AT HOUSTON TEXANS: TEXANS

The Patriots have been terrible on the road this season and there’s no comparing Cam Newton and Deshaun Watson at this point. Watson should light up one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL as the Texans remind us that the Pats are no longer a good team.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3): BROWNS

Did you see what Daniel Jones, Alfred Morris and Wayne Gallman did to the Eagles defense? Now it’s Baker Mayfield, who is inconsistent but due for a strong performance against a bad D. Carson Wentz is also too much of a mess to be getting only a field goal against a superior team on the road.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-10) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: STEELERS

Thought long and hard about the Jags here after they nearly stunned the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau last week, but Pittsburgh has made it clear it isn’t looking past Jacksonville and recent surprisingly close performances from both teams might cause the Steelers to smarten up and take care of business. Besides, Ben Roethlisberger is hot and the Jags pass D is a disaster.

Buyer beware on Trend Dummy’s concern that the Steelers are 1-13 ATS since 1980 when laying double digits on the road.

TENNESSEE TITANS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (-6.5): TITANS

The Ravens have been gutted in the trenches, which doesn’t bode well for a matchup with Derrick Henry. The Titans won in Baltimore in last year’s playoffs and this matchup is much more favorable than that one. The Ravens just aren’t right on either side of the ball, and the resilient Titans should stick around at the very least.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3.5) AT DENVER BRONCOS: DOLPHINS

This is a scary one, especially since we haven’t seen the Dolphins as a road favorite in more than three years, but the Broncos are such a train wreck at the moment that I don’t have much of a choice. Drew Lock has been a disaster and is going up against a top-10 pass defense. That hook is daunting enough to buy half a point back if possible, but the pick is still Miami.

NEW YORK JETS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-8.5): JETS

Can’t believe I’m doing this, but the Jets had tons of fight in them before the bye against better teams than the Chargers, who are just so damn mistake-prone and don’t have much of a home-field advantage in L.A. I can’t bet on the Bolts pulling away, and the backdoor cover would likely be on the table anyway.

DALLAS COWBOYS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-7): COWBOYS

Can’t believe I’m doing this either, but Andy Dalton and Chidobe Awuzie are set to return for Dallas and Zack Martin likely got a lot healthier during the bye. The Cowboys hung with the unbeaten Steelers before that, and Minnesota is operating on short rest. Might be time for an appearance from Bad Kirk Cousins.

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-2): PACKERS

The Indy defense has been sick, but now it has to deal with the league’s highest-rated passer in Aaron Rodgers. Considering that the Packers are coming off a rough performance, and that they’ve bounced back strong after their last two duds, it’s odd that the Colts are laying points. I don’t trust Philip Rivers at all in this spot.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7.5) AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: CHIEFS

This game was off most boards (including SugarHouse) Wednesday night because the Raiders put practically their entire starting defense on the reserve/COVID-19 list, but I’d be taking the Chiefs so long as the line is below 10. The Chiefs will be fired up to send a message against the only team that has defeated them in the last calendar year.

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-4): BUCS

I’d prefer a three-point spread here if possible, and that’s where it was earlier in the week. Still, Tom Brady’s had extra time to prepare for somewhat of a one-dimensional defense, and the pressure-averse Jared Goff will have his hands full with one of the fiercest defensive fronts in the NFL.

Week 11 NFL Picks

Brad Gagnon has been passionate about both sports and mass media since he was in diapers -- a passion that won't die until he's in them again. He was a lead contributor to an earlier incarnation of NationalFootballPost.com and was happy to return when new management revived the brand in 2020. Based in Toronto, he's covered the NFL since 2008 and has been a national NFL writer at Bleacher Report since 2012. He despises all 32 NFL teams equally but remains a fan of the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He can be reached at Brad@NationalFootballPost.com

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