We’re here to guide you with weekly picks against the spread every week, and we’re still well above .500 approaching the midway pole. Here are 15 fresh takes for Week 11 NFL picks, with odds coming from Fanduel, official betting partners of the NFL.
For totals bettors, check out the OVER UNDER picks article from earlier this week, with five predictions. Get the latest NFL odds and matchup reports on every NFL game and read Trend Dummy’s deep data dive into Week 11 trends.
Houston @ Dallas – Play Texans -7.5
This is a big road number (the Texans have been rad chalk of 7 or more just six times in franchise history) and Houston has stumbled of late. But Dallas has lost five straight at home and failed to cover 6 straight at home because their defense is trash and now their offense is matching it.
They were outscored 81-15 in their past two home losses and while this won’t be as bad, double digits is certainly easily achievable for the Texans.
Kansas City @ Buffalo -2.5 – Play Bills
OK, the streak is over and good enough won’t be enough this week in Buffalo for the Chiefs. After pulling several Houdini acts during their 15-game win streak, Patrick Mahomes finally meets his match here.
The Chiefs own a staggering 15-3-1 ATS mark as road underdogs going back several seasons, including 7 in a row. But the Bills usually win at home and they usually win as favorites, so we bet them big here.
Cincinnati +1.5 @ LA Chargers – Play Bengals
The Bengals gambled and lost a week ago in Baltimore and now their layoff margin of error is nil. That means a big effort and performance from Cincy against a team they have covered five straight times.
And in Sunday road games, the Bengals are a wallet-padding 17-5 ATS in recent years. The Chargers aren’t that good, this is a low-scoring win for Cincy, we would bet them on the ML.
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Archived NFL Week 11 picks article from Nov. 17, 2023
Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) at Carolina Panthers: Cowboys
The Cowboys know how to destroy bad teams, with five of their six victories coming by 20-plus points. Meanwhile, the Panthers already have five double-digit-point losses on their record. This shouldn’t be close.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-8.5): Giants
The Giants are certainly a mess, but they did beat Washington just four weeks ago and it’s not as though the 4-6 Commanders are a good team with that 31st-ranked scoring defense. Washington hasn’t won by a double-digit margin this season. Why should we expect that to change now?
Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5): Chiefs
If you’re giving me a chance to back Patrick Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champions in prime at Arrowhead with less than a field goal to give up, I’m screaming yes. Throw in that it’s the magical Andy Reid coming off a bye week and this is a no-brainer.
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Archived NFL Week 11 Picks article from Nov. 17, 2022
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-8.5): Bills
OK, it’s time for the way-better-than-their-record Bills to take out some anger and frustration on an inferior team in front of a home crowd. However, watch for a potential site relocation due to the Buffalo forecast.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3.5): Patriots
I like Bill Belichick with two weeks to prepare for a familiar opponent, even if said opponent has also had two weeks to prepare as well. Buy back half a point if possible to be safe, but this is all New England at home against a still-unreliable Jets squad.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3): Bears
The Bears can suddenly put up POINTS, baby, and they should run all over an overrated Falcons team. Chicago is due for a break and we’re seeing the true Falcons of late.
Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings: Cowboys
This is the ultimate letdown spot for an overrated Vikings team coming off a high against an angry opponent coming off a tough loss. Dallas wins, maybe without much trouble.
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Archived Week 11 NFL OVER UNDER picks article from Nov. 18, 2021
2021 RECORD: 73-76-1
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7) AT ATLANTA FALCONS: FALCONS
The Falcons were playing a lot better before laying an egg against the Cowboys in Week 10. I think they’ll still have something in them against a team traveling on extremely short rest with a rookie quarterback. This should be a close game.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-1): EAGLESÂ
I’m losing trust in the Saints, while the Eagles are finding a bit of a grove. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has a 108.3 passer rating the last two weeks. At home, his team should take care of business in a close game.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3) AT NEW YORK JETS: DOLPHINS
The Dolphins are the way better team and they’ve won two in a row, while the Jets have surrendered 90 points in consecutive losses. Why in the world is Miami laying just a field goal?
WASHINGTON AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3.5): WASHINGTON
No way I’m giving up a hook with Cam Newton and the Panthers. Not after Washington looked rejuvenated in a season-saving Week 10 victory over the defending champs.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT BUFFALO BILLS (-7): COLTS
The Colts haven’t lost a game in regulation since Week 3. They’ll hang in with a Bills team that is due for a close win for once. Buffalo by a touchdown at the very most.
DETROIT LIONS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-11): BROWNS
The Browns really need this and the Lions just won their Super Bowl. It was encouraging to see them play the Steelers close, but that it actually makes it more likely they get trounced here. Bad teams don’t often string together decent performances.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-6) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: 49ERS
Same logic applies to the Jaguars, who are very unlikely to cover three spreads in a row simply because they’re a bad football team. The 49ers also really need this and should take care of business with just six points on the line.
HOUSTON TEXANS AT TENNESSEE TITANS (-10): TITANS
The Texans haven’t won since Week 1, and the Titans haven’t lost in regulation since that same week. You never know with these divisional games, but Houston is just so bad and the Titans are the hottest team in the NFL.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-2) AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS: PACKERS
The Packers have covered nine consecutive spreads. That streak will eventually end, but I’m not betting on that happening when they’re virtually in a pick’em situation with an inferior opponent.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-5) AT CHICAGO BEARS: RAVENS
The Ravens are due a blowout and the Bears are ideal for that. Don Martindale’s defense should make Justin Fields’ life miserable.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-1) AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: BENGALS
I’ve lost all faith in the Raiders, who have seemingly been overcome by the tumult surrounding the organization. The Bengals have also lost back-to-back games but have given us a lot more to believe in. They’re also operating on extra rest.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (-2.5) AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: SEAHAWKS
No way I’m betting on back-to-back Russell Wilson losses with his back against the wall. A bounce-back makes a lot of sense, especially at home as his injured finger continues to progress. Throw in Arizona’s critical injuries and this is a no-brainer.
DALLAS COWBOYS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-2.5): CHIEFS
Also no way I’m betting on Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid to lose after what we saw from them in Week 10. And if you’re taking the Cowboys with less than a field goal in your back pocket, that’s exactly what you have to believe.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-5.5): STEELERS
The Steelers haven’t lost since exiting a Week 2-4 rut. They play everybody close, and the Chargers haven’t been right on either side of the ball. COVID-19 situations exist for both teams here and they merit monitoring, but I’m betting it’ll be a field-goal game either way.
NEW YORK GIANTS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-11): BUCCANEERS
Tom Brady has always struggled with the Giants, but he’ll be out to make a statement in this spot. An 11-point spread still scares me with the Giants gaining steam and getting healthier, but I get the feeling the Bucs will get their act together here.
Archived NFL Week 11 picks article from Nov. 22, 2020
2020 RECORD: 74-65-4
ARIZONA CARDINALS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3): CARDINALS
The Seahawks have covered the spread just twice in their last nine meetings with the Cardinals, who are coming on strong following a dramatic Week 10 victory. The Seahawks don’t look right at all and that defense doesn’t appear ready to deal with Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins.
ATLANTA FALCONS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-5): FALCONS
The Falcons have once again turned their season around. It’s probably too late, but that doesn’t mean they can’t beat the Saints in the Superdome for the second time in as many opportunities. They likely won’t have to deal with Drew Brees coming off their bye, and they might get Calvin Ridley back. They’ll keep this close even if they don’t pull off the upset.
