Week 11 NFL TD prop picks
Last week wasn’t perfect, but we did identify the right games with the exception of the disaster of a performance from the Atlanta Falcons.
Four of the five players I highlighted had teammates at the same position score. To me, that’s validation of the data-driven approach.
There’s always a randomness at play when betting touchdown scorers, but if you stay true to targeting soft spots, there’s data to support these bets in the long-term.
I’ve gone a step further this week by also looking at the teams who pass and rush for the most touchdowns and finding overlaps where they play a team that allows the most touchdowns either through the air or on the ground.
For example, the Titans score 1.6 rushing touchdowns per game, the most in the NFL. They play the Texans this weekend who allow the second-most rushing touchdowns per game (1.7). That’s the type of overlap we’re looking for.
Couple that with red zone strengths and high-usage players, and I’m feeling good about the touchdown scorers this weekend.
–Five TD Scorer Props this Sunday
To reiterate, this piece can be used just as much as a resource as it can be a look into best bets. While last week showed that we had the right spots circled, there are a lot of players on the field, so consider their teammates as well.
We focus on plus-odds bets only to give us some leeway for profit. For example, against an extremely poor Lions run defense, Nick Chubb is a strong option to score. At -165 odds, it’s not great value.
If you like to place TD parlays then by all means, load up Chubb – I likely will myself.
Time to focus up, here are my five favorite touchdown scorers in Week 11. Odds are courtesy of DraftKings and FanDuel.
–James Robinson +130 on DraftKings
James Robinson is in a good spot in this game against the 49ers. For starters, Jacksonville scores a touchdown on 60% of their red zone trips, a top-15 mark.
San Francisco is a below-average red zone defense and allow the third-most rushing touchdowns per game at 1.3.
Robinson has his role locked up with Jacksonville, leading the team in red zone usage and carries. Robinson has found the end zone in five games this year and has had an efficient season out of the backfield.
–Cole Beasley +175 on DraftKings
Beasley left the Bills Week 10 game against the Jets early with an injury, but all reports indicate he’s good to go for this big game against the Indianapolis Colts.
This initially hit my radar as an example of a strong RZ offense against a poor RZ defense, but it was studying how the Colts let up touchdowns that makes this an official play.
Only one team allows more passing touchdowns per game than this Indy defense, and Beasley is second on the Bills in red zone targets.
Prior to leaving Week 10 early, Beasley saw 13 and 11 total targets in back-to-back weeks, a significant uptick in volume.
Beasley has just one touchdown this season, which only makes me think he’s due. At +175, this feels like a strong spot for Beasley to score.
–D’Onta Foreman +125 on FanDuel
We alluded to this above, but one of the clear spots to target this weekend is the Titans running game against this Texans defense.
The man that gets the nod in my book is Foreman, who slightly out-snapped Adrian Peterson last week, saw three red zone carries and just looked to be the most efficient with the ball in his hands.
Tennessee should find the end zone repeatedly against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. With their proclivity for scoring on the ground (the highest rushing TDs per game), their group of runners is the right place to look.
Adrian Peterson is a factor and +160 to score, he has five red zone carries the past two weeks.
–Tee Higgins +150 on FanDuel
Full transparency, I have been including Tee Higgins to score in my touchdown parlays for three straight weeks and you guessed it, he hasn’t scored yet.
Higgins is a key cog in this Cincinnati Bengals’ passing attack, playing over 75% of the snaps and seeing 8.1 targets per game.
Higgins leads this group of pass-catches in red zone targets but hasn’t scored since Week 2!
Las Vegas has the 31st-ranked red zone defense, allowing touchdowns at a 75% rate. They’re particularly vulnerable to passing touchdowns, seeing the fifth-most per game, while Joe Burrow and the Bengals toss the fifth-most passing scores per game.
This is a perfect union of value and my favorite touchdown play of the day.
–Michael Gallup +160 on FanDuel
The Dallas-Kansas City game is the highest projected total of the weekend (56.5 points) and well worth a touchdown bet.
This game screams shootouts with two strong offenses and two less-than-stellar defenses, so I’ll load up the Dallas receiver with the most value, Michael Gallup.
Gallup returned to the Cowboys lineup for the first time since Week 1, playing 53% of the snaps and seeing five targets.
As a piece of this offense in a high-scoring game, I love the odds here. The Chiefs allow the seventh-highest passing TDs per game while Dallas scores primarily through the air (2.4 per game, third in the NFL).
With Amari Cooper now on the COVID list, Gallup’s usage only figures to jump.
-Follow Griffin Carroll (@griffybets) and check out his work at bettingwithdata.com.