The Steelers never lose to the Colts, the Lions never win in Week 12 and the Rams face their largest spread in six seasons as they struggle miserably.
Its not every year that the defending Super Bowl champs are 16-point underdogs but the Chiefs lay 16 at home to the Rams. And its not every week that a 7-3 team is a 10-point underdog, but the Giants seem prime for regression while the Cowboys look like they are rolling.
Check out the Week 12 NFL betting trends along with batches of tasty streaks for all three Thanksgiving Day games.
Thanksgiving Day Betting Trends
Buffalo @ Detroit +9.5, Total 54.5 | Matchup Stats
UNDER is 13-3 Buffalo’s last 16 games vs NFC North teams.
Lions are 2-19 SU in their last 21 games played in Week 12.
Bills are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played in Week 12.
Last 6 meetings all played UNDER the total
Bills have played 5 straight road UNDERs
Bills are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games
Lions are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games at home, 20-8 to the OVER past 28 home games
Lions have covered 6 in a row in November 23
Lions are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as the underdog.
NY Giants @ Dallas -10, total 45.5 | Matchup Stats
Cowboys are 10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against NY Giants.
UNDER is 14-3 past 17 NY Giants games as underdogs
UNDER is 16-5 NY Giants’ last 21 games.
Cowboys are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 divisional games
Giants have lost 6 straight Thursdays, Dallas 1-5 SU past 6 Thursdays
Cowboys are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as the favorite.
New England @ Minnesota -2.5, Total 42.5 | Matchup Stats
Patriots are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games played in Week 12.
Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games.
Patriots have won 5 straight vs Vikings, 4-1 ATS
Patriots are 15-6 SU in their last 21 games played on a Thursday.
Vikings have won 10 in a row as favorites
LA Rams @ Kansas City Chiefs -15.5, Total 43 | Matchup Stats
Chiefs are 12-0 SU in their last 12 games played in November.
Chiefs are 15-1 SU in their last 16 non-conference games
Rams are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games
Rams are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games played in November.
Biggest Rams dog line since losing 24-3 at Seattle in 2016
Last 5 times Rams caught 14 points or more, they have scored 23 points total (all 5 UNDER)
Rams are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games
Rams are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Kansas City.
Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games at home
Packers @ Eagles -6.5, Total 46.5 | Matchup Stats
Packers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as the underdog.
UNDER is 11-3 Green Bay’s last 14 games against Philadelphia.
UNDER is 17-6 Philadelphia’s last 23 games in November.
Packers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when playing as the underdog.
Monday Night Football Trends
Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis -2.5, Total 39 | Matchup Stats
Steelers are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games vs AFC South division.
Steelers are 17-2 SU in their last 19 games against Indianapolis.
Steelers are 19-4 SU in their last 23 games played on a Monday.
UNDER is 15-6 Indianapolis’ last 21 games.
UNDER is 11-2 Indianapolis’ last 13 conference games
UNDER is 9-1 Indianapolis’ last 10 games as the favorite.
Week 12 NFL betting trends archived article from Nov. 21, 2021
Seeing a 3-7 team favored on the road is rare, but as long as the Detroit Lions are in the league, bad teams like the Chicago Bears still get the opportunity to be road faves.
Its Thanksgiving Week and we uncover some tasty Week 12 NFL betting trends for the trio of Thursday night matches. Check out the trends and odds courtesy of FanDuel (as of Monday).
Bears @ Lions +3.5, Total 41.5 | Matchup Report
Bears are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 divisional games
Bears played OVER 5 straight games as road favorites
Lions are 1-15 SU in their last 16 home games
Lions are 1-14 SU in their last 15 divisional games
Bears are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played on a Thursday.
Bears are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games when playing as the favorite.
Lions are 2-18 SU in their last 20 games played in week 12 (3-14 ATS past 17)
Raiders @ Cowboys -7, Total 51 | Matchup Report
Cowboys are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games.
Cowboys are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Thursday home games.
Cowboys 5-1 ATS past 6 as favorites
Bills @ Saints +4.5, Total 46.5 | Matchup Report
Saints are 14-3 SU in their last 17 non-conference
Saints are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as the underdog.
Bills are 25-6 SU in their last 31 games as the favorite.
Bills are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against New Orleans.
Bills have won 5 straight Week 12 games and are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 seasons.
Saints have played 5 straight Thursdays OVER (8-1 past 9)
Bucs @ Colts +2.5, Total 51 | Matchup Report
Colts are 3-11 SU in their last 14 games as the underdog but 5-1 ATS past 6
Colts are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Tampa Bay.
Bucs failed to cover five straight road games
UNDER is 18-4 Tampa Bay’s last 22 games played in Week 12.
UNDER is 6-1 Indianapolis’ last 7 games played in Week 12
Titans @ Patriots -5.5, Total 44.5 | Matchup Report
OVER is 15-2 Tennessee’s last 17 Sunday road games
Patriots are 18-3 SU in their last 21 games played in Week 12.
Titans are 15-4 SU in their last 19 games on the road.
Titans are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games at New England
Titans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as the underdog.
Rams @ Packers -1, Total 48.5 | Matchup Report
Packers are 15-2 SU in their last 17 Sunday home games.
OVER is 9-2 LA Rams’ last 11 games as the underdog
Rams are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games against Green Bay.
Packers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games
Browns @ Ravens -4, Total 46.5 | Matchup Report
Ravens are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games played in week 12.
Ravens are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games played on a Sunday.
Browns are 4-22 SU in their last 26 games against Baltimore.
Browns are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games at Baltimore.
Browns are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 divisional games
Ravens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games played in Week 12.
Ravens are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as the favorite.
Monday Night Football Trends
Seahawks @ Washington -1, Total 46.5 | Matchup Report
Washington 1-17 ATS in their last 18 games played on a Monday when playing at home
UNDER is 12-2 Seattle’s last 14 conference games
Seattle are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on the road.
Seahawks are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games played on a Monday.
Seahawks are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as the underdog.
Washington is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games played in Week 12.
Archived Week 12 NFL Betting trends article from Nov. 25, 2020
Cleveland is likely to close as the franchise’s biggest road favorite this week in Jacksonville. If the line reaches -7, that will surpass the -6.5 from last season at the Jets.
Still, are backers really comfortable betting on a team that is 4-32 SU in their last 36 Sunday road games and 1-9 ATS in their past 10?
(Check out Thanksgiving Day game trends in this separate article).
Elsewhere, if you didn’t learn your lesson about betting against the New England Patriots as home underdogs two weeks ago vs Baltimore, here’s another chance to get burned. Arizona opened as 2.5-point favorites and the Patriots numbers as underdogs are staggering (10-2 SU past 12 games as home dogs). Check it out.
Posted lines are FanDuel on Tuesday, check NFL line moves during the week for the most recent odds.
Carolina at Minnesota -4.5, Total 48.5 | Matchup Report
The Vikings are 15-5-1 ATS in 21 recent Week 12 games. Sorry that’s all we’ve got….
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Sunday road games.
OVER is 9-2 Minnesota’s last 11 Sunday home games.
Tennessee at Indianapolis -3.5, Total 51 | Matchup Report
The Titans have a helluva hard time against the Colts, limping to a 4-20 SU mark in 24 meetings. If you think their ATS mark must be a lot better, at 7-17 ATS, not really. And if you had blindly bet OVER the past 8 Tennessee Sunday road games, you would have won all 8 bets.
Indianapolis is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 at home against Tennessee
OVER is 17-6 Tennessee’s last 23 games.
UNDER is 16-6 Tennessee’s last 22 games at Indianapolis.
Arizona at New England +2.5 Total 49.5 | Matchup Report
True these Patriots are not the same Patriots, but you are still playing with financial fire if you bet against them as underdogs. They are 18-4-1 ATS past 23 games as home dogs since Nov. 1994 and won 10 of 12 outright, including two weeks ago against Baltimore. Overall, New England is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games when playing as the underdog.
Arizona is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against New England.
Cleveland at Jacksonville +6.5 Total 49 | Matchup Report
If this game closes -7 or higher, it will be the biggest road favorite number for the Browns in franchise history. They were -6.5 at the New York Jets last year and won easily 23-3. This is the fourth time this year that the Jags have been home dogs of 6 or more, covering the spread twice. But do Cleveland bettors trust a team that is 4-32 SU in their last 36 Sunday road games?
Cleveland is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games.
Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 conference games.
Miami at New York Jets +7, Total 44.5 | Matchup Report
After not being road favorites in more than three years, the Dolphins are road chalk in consecutive weeks. They choked in Denver, its hard to imagine they can choke against the Jets.
Miami is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games
UNDER is 8-2 Miami’s last 10 games at NY Jets.
Las Vegas at Atlanta +3 Total 54 | Matchup Report
Vegas has covered both times as road chalk so far in 2020 but face a Falcons team riding an 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as the underdog. Vegas is strong the road, Atlanta is terrible in non-conference games. You figure out this trendy mess.
Atlanta is 2-14 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.
Las Vegas is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games
UNDER is 7-1 past 8 Falcons games as home dogs
New York Giants at Cincinnati +6, Total 43 | Matchup Report
Wow, the Giants are 6-point road favorites, what is wrong with the world? The Giants have been 6-point chalk just five times since the 2013 season and just twice as 6-point road favorites since 2010! And if it seems like you win your bet every time you bet the Giants on the road, its because you are. They have covered 8 straight and 17 of 20 road games!
NY Giants are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 Sunday road games.
NY Giants have covered 8 straight and 17-3 ATS in their last 20 games on the road.
NY Giants are 0-6 SU in their last 6 at Cincinnati.
Cincinnati is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 Sunday home games
Cincinnati is just 3-25-1 SU in their last 29 games as the underdog.
LA Chargers at Buffalo +5.5, Total 52.5 | Matchup Report
Buffalo usually wins as the favorite (20-4 SU) but doesn’t always cover. Meanwhile the Chargers almost always beat Buffalo (18-5 SU past 23 games against Buffalo) but don’t always cover. Maybe try the OVER based on the Chargers recent run?
OVER is 9-2 of LA Chargers’ last 11 road games.
Chargers lost 8 straight SU as underdog
Buffalo is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 conference games.
San Francisco at LA Rams -6.5, Total 45 | Matchup Report
UNDER is 13-2 LA Rams’ last 15 games as chalk.
LA Rams are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games at home.
Rams are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against an opponent in the NFC West division.
New Orleans at Denver +6, Total 43.5 | Matchup Report
The Saints have lost 5 straight to Denver, but have been covering at a super profitable clip as a road team.
Denver is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games against New Orleans.
Denver is 3-10 SU in their last 13 non-conference games.
New Orleans is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games
Kansas City at Tampa Bay +3.5 Total 56 | Matchup Report
Kansas keeps winning a d keeps covering. Bet against them at your financial peril. We can’t find any trends to suggest you should other than a strange losing skid to these Bucs.
Kansas City is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games.
Kansas City lost 5 in a row to TB and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against them.
Kansas City is 17-4 SU in their last 21 road games
Tampa Bay is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 Sunday home games.
Chicago at Green Bay -7.5, Total 45.5 | Matchup Report
The Bears do well within the division. The Bears do not do well against Green Bay.
Green Bay is 17-3 SU in their last 20 games against Chicago
Chicago are 10-3 SU in their last 13 divisional games.
Seattle at Philadelphia +5 Total 50 | Monday Night Football Matchup Report
Both teams are accustomed to winning on Monday Night Football. However, Seattle is the far superior team and has covered 6 straight vs Eagles and are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against them. They have also won and covered 6 in a row at Philly.
UNDER is 10-1 Philadelphia’s last 11 games played in November.
UNDER is 10-2 Philadelphia’s last 12 games at home.
Seattle is 14-2 SU in their last 16 games played on a Monday.
Philadelphia is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games played on a Monday.
Seattle is 11-2 SU in their last 13 games against an opponent in the NFC East division.