Oct 25, 2020; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Cam Newton (1) and head coach Bill Belichick look on from the sideline as they take on the San Francisco 49ers in the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Week 12 NFL Betting Trends

Cleveland is likely to close as the franchise’s biggest road favorite this week in Jacksonville. If the line reaches -7, that will surpass the -6.5 from last season at the Jets.

Still, are backers really comfortable betting on a team that is 4-32 SU in their last 36 Sunday road games and 1-9 ATS in their past 10?

(Check out Thanksgiving Day game trends in this separate article).

Elsewhere, if you didn’t learn your lesson about betting against the New England Patriots as home underdogs two weeks ago vs Baltimore, here’s another chance to get burned. Arizona opened as 2.5-point favorites and the Patriots numbers as underdogs are staggering (10-2 SU past 12 games as home dogs). Check it out.

Posted lines are BetRivers on Tuesday, check NFL line moves during the week for the most recent odds.

Carolina at Minnesota -4.5, Total 48.5 | Matchup Report

The Vikings are 15-5-1 ATS in 21 recent Week 12 games. Sorry that’s all we’ve got….

Carolina is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Sunday road games.

OVER is 9-2 Minnesota’s last 11 Sunday home games.

Tennessee at Indianapolis -3.5, Total 51 | Matchup Report

The Titans have a helluva hard time against the Colts, limping to a 4-20 SU mark in 24 meetings. If you think their ATS mark must be a lot better, at 7-17 ATS, not really. And if you had blindly bet OVER the past 8 Tennessee Sunday road games, you would have won all 8 bets.

Indianapolis is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 at home against Tennessee

OVER is 17-6 Tennessee’s last 23 games.

UNDER is 16-6 Tennessee’s last 22 games at Indianapolis.

Arizona at New England +2.5 Total 49.5  | Matchup Report

True these Patriots are not the same Patriots, but you are still playing with financial fire if you bet against them as underdogs. They are 18-4-1 ATS past 23 games as home dogs since Nov. 1994 and won 10 of 12 outright, including two weeks ago against Baltimore. Overall, New England is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games when playing as the underdog.

Arizona is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against New England.

Cleveland at Jacksonville +6.5 Total 49 | Matchup Report

If this game closes -7 or higher, it will be the biggest road favorite number for the Browns in franchise history. They were -6.5 at the New York Jets last year and won easily 23-3. This is the fourth time this year that the Jags have been home dogs of 6 or more, covering the spread twice. But do Cleveland bettors trust a team that is 4-32 SU in their last 36 Sunday road games?

Cleveland is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games.

Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 conference games.

Miami at New York Jets +7, Total 44.5 | Matchup Report

After not being road favorites in more than three years, the Dolphins are road chalk in consecutive weeks. They choked in Denver, its hard to imagine they can choke against the Jets.

Miami is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games

UNDER is 8-2 Miami’s last 10 games at NY Jets.

Las Vegas at Atlanta +3 Total 54 | Matchup Report

Vegas has covered both times as road chalk so far in 2020 but face a Falcons team riding an 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as the underdog. Vegas is strong the road, Atlanta is terrible in non-conference games. You figure out this trendy mess.

Atlanta is 2-14 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.

Las Vegas is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games

UNDER is 7-1 past 8 Falcons games as home dogs

New York Giants at Cincinnati +6, Total 43 | Matchup Report

Wow, the Giants are 6-point road favorites, what is wrong with the world? The Giants have been 6-point chalk just five times since the 2013 season and just twice as 6-point road favorites since 2010! And if it seems like you win your bet every time you bet the Giants on the road, its because you are. They have covered 8 straight and 17 of 20 road games!

NY Giants are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 Sunday road games.

NY Giants have covered 8 straight and 17-3 ATS in their last 20 games on the road.

NY Giants are 0-6 SU in their last 6 at Cincinnati.

Cincinnati is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 Sunday home games

Cincinnati is just 3-25-1 SU in their last 29 games as the underdog.

LA Chargers at Buffalo +5.5, Total 52.5 | Matchup Report

Buffalo usually wins as the favorite (20-4 SU) but doesn’t always cover. Meanwhile  the Chargers almost always beat Buffalo (18-5 SU past 23 games against Buffalo) but don’t always cover. Maybe try the OVER based on the Chargers recent run?

OVER is 9-2 of LA Chargers’ last 11 road games.

Chargers lost 8 straight SU as underdog

Buffalo is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 conference games.

San Francisco at LA Rams -6.5, Total 45 | Matchup Report

UNDER is 13-2 LA Rams’ last 15 games as chalk.

LA Rams are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games at home.

Rams are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against an opponent in the NFC West division.

New Orleans at Denver +6, Total 43.5 | Matchup Report

The Saints have lost 5 straight to Denver, but have been covering at a super profitable clip as a road team.

Denver is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games against New Orleans.

Denver is 3-10 SU in their last 13 non-conference games.

New Orleans is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games

Kansas City at Tampa Bay +3.5 Total 56 | Matchup Report

Kansas keeps winning a d keeps covering. Bet against them at your financial peril. We can’t find any trends to suggest you should other than a strange losing skid to these Bucs.

Kansas City is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games.

Kansas City lost 5 in a row to TB and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against them.

Kansas City is 17-4 SU in their last 21 road games

Tampa Bay is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 Sunday home games.

Chicago at Green Bay -7.5, Total 45.5 | Matchup Report

The Bears do well within the division. The Bears do not do well against Green Bay.

Green Bay is 17-3 SU in their last 20 games against Chicago

Chicago are 10-3 SU in their last 13 divisional games.

Seattle at Philadelphia +5 Total 50 | Monday Night Football Matchup Report

Both teams are accustomed to winning on Monday Night Football. However, Seattle is the far superior team and has covered 6 straight vs Eagles and are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against them. They have  also won and covered 6 in a row at Philly.

UNDER is 10-1 Philadelphia’s last 11 games played in November.

UNDER is 10-2 Philadelphia’s last 12 games at home.

Seattle is 14-2 SU in their last 16 games played on a Monday.

Philadelphia is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games played on a Monday.

Seattle is 11-2 SU in their last 13 games against an opponent in the NFC East division.

More Week 12 NFL Betting Trends Coming soon

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.

Upcoming Games

Jan 24th, 3:05 PM

Tampa Bay +3.5 -110

Green Bay -3.5 -110

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Jan 24th, 6:40 PM

Buffalo +3 +100

Kansas City -3 +100

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