Nov 12, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA;  Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) passes the ball against the Cleveland Browns during the second half at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports

Week 12 NFL Picks

We’re here to guide you with weekly picks against the spread every week, and we’re still well above .500 approaching home stretch. Here is the full slate of Week 12 NFL picks, with odds coming midweek from Draft Kings official betting partner of the NFL.

For live football betting odds and matchup reports on every game, check out the NFL odds page.

Baltimore -3 @ LA Chargers

Both teams come off losses but the Chargers are the fragile cranky team here and they don’t usually show up in this situation. They lost 9 of past 10 games as home dogs and are just 5-19 SU overall in 24 games as a dog. This line moved from -4 to -3 and the Ravens are great value here.

Cleveland @ Denver -2

We are surprised the line is so small here with the Browns on a rookie QB and the Broncos defense playing terrific. We can see them winning early here as Denver continues a terrific turnaround this season.

Kansas City -9.5 @ Las Vegas

The Chiefs come off a home loss where they really should have won but had a bad case of the dropsies vs the Eagles. It’s hard to conceive of the defending champs playing like that again and they almost always beat the Raiders. We would play the Chiefs up to -10.

——

Archived NFL Week 12 picks article from Nov. 25, 2022

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans: Titans

We’re underrating the Titans, who haven’t lost in regulation since Week 2 and should be getting more respect at home. They should win this one outright, but buy up to +3 to be safe, if possible.

Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5): Seahawks

Back-to-back on the road for the Raiders, who were worn out in Denver and haven’t won a game in regulation since Week 7. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are desperate with two weeks to prepare. Buy back the hook if possible, but Seattle’s the bet.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns: Buccaneers

Similar situation here. Tampa Bay is coming off its bye and trying to make a run, while the Browns might not have much left in them. Still, beware of the hook.

New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers (-9): 49ers

When the 49ers win, they often win big. At home against a Saints team that is inconsistent and coming off a win, this should be a double-digit margin in favor of San Francisco.

——–

Archived NFL Week 12 Picks article from Nov. 28, 2021

2021 RECORD: 82-82-1

CHICAGO BEARS (-3) AT DETROIT LIONS: LIONS

The Lions have been feisty lately. Chicago has not. The Bears look to be toast and their head coach appears to be on his way out. In Detroit on short rest, I’m not laying a full field goal with them. [ Bet at FanDuel ]

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS AT DALLAS COWBOYS (-7.5): COWBOYS

I don’t trust the Raiders, but their backs are against the wall and they’re getting that hook against a team that is struggling and quite depleted. I think they’ll hang around or I’ll hope for the backdoor cover. [ Bet at FanDuel ]

BUFFALO BILLS (-5.5) AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: BILLS

The Bills have bounced back strongly from all of their losses this season, the Saints are in a free-fall and every Buffalo win this year has come by at least 15 points. This line isn’t close to big enough.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-2.5) AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: BUCCANEERS

I’m a little hesitant here because the Bucs are a lot worse on short rest than they are on extra rest, which they benefited from Monday night against the Giants. Still, this isn’t a good matchup for a team that rides running back Jonathan Taylor, and this is about when Tampa started gaining steam last year too. I’ll lay less than a field goal, no problem.

NEW YORK JETS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (-2.5): JETS

Don’t bet this game. Just don’t. But if you have to pick somebody, roll with the team that isn’t coming off a rare win. Because even rarer when you’re this bad is a two-game winning streak. The Jets might also get a jolt from Zach Wilson’s return.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3.5) AT NEW YORK GIANTS: GIANTS

I don’t trust either team but I’m sure as hell not laying a field goal plus a hook with Philadelphia on the road against a team that is very familiar with them. The Giants aren’t a good team, but they aren’t a horrible one. They’ll stick around here.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (-2) AT MIAMI DOLPHINS: DOLPHINS

The Dolphins are simply the better team and they’ve played that way while desperate in recent weeks. In Miami, Carolina has no business as the favorite.

TENNESSEE TITANS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6): TITANS

This line would scare me either way, but the Pats haven’t been good at home this season and Mike Vrabel has had New England’s number in the past. It’s also about time for the Patriots to slip up, while an experienced Titans team will do everything in its power to avoid a second consecutive loss. This will be close.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (-4): STEELERS

The experienced Steelers should be healthier this week, and they’re simply unlikely to suffer a season series sweep at the hands of the still-novice Bengals for the first time in 12 years. No way I’m laying more than a field goal with untrustworthy Cincinnati in this spot.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-1) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: FALCONS

Hate backing the Falcons, but the Jaguars have lost 23 of their last 24 games on American soil so I’m not taking them in a virtual pick’em situation. It also helps that the Falcons have been hot and cold this season, are coming off cold and have had extra time to prepare for Jacksonville.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-3) AT DENVER BRONCOS: CHARGERS

The Broncos looked like they hit a wall against the Eagles prior to their bye, while the Chargers rarely get defeated handily. The key, though is that Denver will be without its starting offensive tackles for a matchup with Joey Bosa.

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (-1): RAMS

The Packers are down to their third option at left tackle and Aaron Rodgers and his arsenal are far from 100 percent for a matchup with Aaron Donald and a stacked Rams defense. Throw in that Los Angeles has had two weeks to prepare for this and it’s a no-brainer.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-3): 49ERS

This is very likely to be a push with that generic three-point spread in favor of the home team. Both teams are 5-5 and desperate, and both have performed better lately after poor starts. Ultimately, I just trust Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers at home more than I trust Kirk Cousins and the Vikes on the road.

CLEVELAND BROWNS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (-4): RAVENS

Cleveland continues to be ravaged by injuries, while the Ravens are due for a blowout win as Lamar Jackson returns to the lineup. I’d prefer to buy this down to -3, but I’m on Baltimore regardless.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (-1): SEATTLE

I’m giving Russell Wilson one last chance. The guy deserves the benefit of the doubt and he’s presumably been getting healthier with each passing week. With his back against the wall here, I think he and the veteran Seahawks take care of business against a Washington team without top defender Chase Young.

Archived NFL Week 12 NFL picks article from Nov. 30, 2020

2020 RECORD: 81-72-4

HOUSTON TEXANS (-3) AT DETROIT LIONS: LIONS

Honestly, I’m almost convinced the Texans are winning this thing by exactly a field goal. But because the Lions are at home and desperate against a toast Texans team traveling on extremely short rest, I’ll roll with Detroit. I wouldn’t spend a buck on this game though.

WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM AT DALLAS COWBOYS (-3): COWBOYS

The Cowboys have actually had some life the last couple games, and they’re healthier now too. It’s a good sign that Ezekiel Elliott seems to be waking up, because he can force Washington to respect a more balanced Dallas offense. The Cowboys roll at home against a depleted team traveling on short rest.

BALTIMORE RAVENS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-5): RAVENS

Editor Note: Game now moved to Sunday, thanks Covid….

Baltimore’s COVID-19 situation and injuries in general have moved this line so much that there’s now value with the Ravens, who are a desperate veteran team that always plays Pittsburgh tough. The Steelers are due for a dud, and I think that could happen with old Ben Roethlisberger operating on three days’ rest. Depending on how the COVID-19 scares play out, I’d consider Baltimore on the moneyline.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-2) AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: CARDINALS

The Cards have had extra time to prepare for a Pats team that might be toast after that tough loss to Houston. This line will likely grow when we find out Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins will play, so this might represent great value, regardless of what my colleague Trend Dummy has to say about the Patriots as home underdogs (hint, they almost always win SU).

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-4): PANTHERS

I get the feeling the Vikings will also be dejected after a loss that probably crushed their playoff hopes. Carolina might get Christian McCaffrey and/or Teddy Bridgewater back, while Minnesota has added touchdown monster Adam Thielen to the reserve/COVID-19 list. The Panthers often at least hang, and that should be the case here.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-6.5) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: JAGUARS

Really wish I could get this to +7 for Jacksonville, but I’m still taking my chances considering how inconsistent Cleveland is. The key is that the Browns won’t have their top two defensive players, Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT BUFFALO BILLS (-5.5): CHARGERS

The Bills aren’t actually 5.5 points better than the Chargers in an empty stadium. This has the look of a field-goal game, and I don’t trust either team.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-3) AT ATLANTA FALCONS: RAIDERS

The Falcons just laid a post-bye egg against a shorthanded, familiar opponent. They’re done. And in this case, they won’t have a fully healthy Julio Jones or a semblance of a running game to take advantage of an exploitable defense. The efficient Raiders roll in a half-empty stadium against a team that appears to be checking out for 2020.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (-7) AT NEW YORK JETS: JETS

I think the Dolphins are coming back to earth a bit, while the Jets continue to play hard. They’ve actually covered in three of their last four games and they’re very familiar with Miami. At home, they should keep this a lot closer than the first meeting between the two.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-5.5) AT CINCINNATI BENGALS: GIANTS

I don’t think the Bengals will have a lot in them following the loss of Joe Burrow. They’ve been dominated in back-to-back games, while the Giants have come alive. Both teams have terrible pass defenses, but I have a lot more faith in Daniel Jones than Ryan Finley to take advantage of that. Throw in that the G-Men are coming off their bye and this is an easy call.

TENNESSEE TITANS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3.5): TITANS

Indy is about due for another suddenly terrible performance and the Titans have won two of their last three road games against the Colts. Derrick Henry also went off at this very site one year ago. I trust Tennessee more, especially with a field goal and a hook in my back pocket.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-6) AT DENVER BRONCOS: BRONCOS

Denver has won back-to-back home games against the Chargers and Dolphins, and now Vic Fangio has had a week to watch tape of Taysom Hill’s first start in place of injured Saints quarterback Drew Brees. The Denver defense is legit enough to keep this close in Colorado.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-7): RAMS

The 49ers might be coming off their bye and they might have defeated L.A. earlier this season, but San Francisco has since been gutted even worse by injuries and the Rams have taken off in every aspect of the game. This is great line value for the Rams, who should become the fourth team in a row to beat San Francisco by a double-digit margin.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3.5) AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: CHIEFS

The hook is scary here but Tom Brady has been horrible in big games, horrible against high-quality opponents and horrible on short rest. That’s a recipe for a no-doubt defeat at the hands of a Chiefs team that has lost one road game since December of 2018.

CHICAGO BEARS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (-8.5): PACKERS

This is a big number considering how strong Chicago’s defense is, but star Bears safety Eddie Jackson is now on the reserve/COVID-19 list, Aaron Rodgers and Co. should be fired up after a tough loss (they won handily immediately after their last two losses), and Chicago has no running game to take advantage of Green Bay’s vulnerable run D.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-5.5) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: SEAHAWKS

The Eagles are tempting here considering how much they need this prime-time home game, but Carson Wentz has been so atrocious on a weekly basis that there’s no reason to believe he can exploit a beatable Seattle pass defense. The Seahawks have also had extra time to prepare, and Russell Wilson might be getting back into a groove

Brad Gagnon has been passionate about both sports and mass media since he was in diapers -- a passion that won't die until he's in them again. He was a lead contributor to an earlier incarnation of NationalFootballPost.com and was happy to return when new management revived the brand in 2020. Based in Toronto, he's covered the NFL since 2008 and has been a national NFL writer at Bleacher Report since 2012. He despises all 32 NFL teams equally but remains a fan of the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He can be reached at Brad@NationalFootballPost.com

Bet Week 12

Rated 5/5

Upcoming Games