We’re here to guide you with weekly picks against the spread every week, and we’re still well above .500 approaching home stretch. Here is the full slate of Week 12 NFL picks, with odds coming midweek from BetRivers and SugarHouse.
For live football betting odds and matchup reports on every game, check out the NFL odds page.
2020 RECORD: 81-72-4
HOUSTON TEXANS (-3) AT DETROIT LIONS: LIONS
Honestly, I’m almost convinced the Texans are winning this thing by exactly a field goal. But because the Lions are at home and desperate against a toast Texans team traveling on extremely short rest, I’ll roll with Detroit. I wouldn’t spend a buck on this game though.
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM AT DALLAS COWBOYS (-3): COWBOYS
The Cowboys have actually had some life the last couple games, and they’re healthier now too. It’s a good sign that Ezekiel Elliott seems to be waking up, because he can force Washington to respect a more balanced Dallas offense. The Cowboys roll at home against a depleted team traveling on short rest.
BALTIMORE RAVENS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-5): RAVENS
Editor Note: Game now moved to Sunday, thanks Covid….
Baltimore’s COVID-19 situation and injuries in general have moved this line so much that there’s now value with the Ravens, who are a desperate veteran team that always plays Pittsburgh tough. The Steelers are due for a dud, and I think that could happen with old Ben Roethlisberger operating on three days’ rest. Depending on how the COVID-19 scares play out, I’d consider Baltimore on the moneyline.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (-2) AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: CARDINALS
The Cards have had extra time to prepare for a Pats team that might be toast after that tough loss to Houston. This line will likely grow when we find out Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins will play, so this might represent great value, regardless of what my colleague Trend Dummy has to say about the Patriots as home underdogs (hint, they almost always win SU).
CAROLINA PANTHERS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-4): PANTHERS
I get the feeling the Vikings will also be dejected after a loss that probably crushed their playoff hopes. Carolina might get Christian McCaffrey and/or Teddy Bridgewater back, while Minnesota has added touchdown monster Adam Thielen to the reserve/COVID-19 list. The Panthers often at least hang, and that should be the case here.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (-6.5) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: JAGUARS
Really wish I could get this to +7 for Jacksonville, but I’m still taking my chances considering how inconsistent Cleveland is. The key is that the Browns won’t have their top two defensive players, Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT BUFFALO BILLS (-5.5): CHARGERS
The Bills aren’t actually 5.5 points better than the Chargers in an empty stadium. This has the look of a field-goal game, and I don’t trust either team.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-3) AT ATLANTA FALCONS: RAIDERS
The Falcons just laid a post-bye egg against a shorthanded, familiar opponent. They’re done. And in this case, they won’t have a fully healthy Julio Jones or a semblance of a running game to take advantage of an exploitable defense. The efficient Raiders roll in a half-empty stadium against a team that appears to be checking out for 2020.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (-7) AT NEW YORK JETS: JETS
I think the Dolphins are coming back to earth a bit, while the Jets continue to play hard. They’ve actually covered in three of their last four games and they’re very familiar with Miami. At home, they should keep this a lot closer than the first meeting between the two.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-5.5) AT CINCINNATI BENGALS: GIANTS
I don’t think the Bengals will have a lot in them following the loss of Joe Burrow. They’ve been dominated in back-to-back games, while the Giants have come alive. Both teams have terrible pass defenses, but I have a lot more faith in Daniel Jones than Ryan Finley to take advantage of that. Throw in that the G-Men are coming off their bye and this is an easy call.
TENNESSEE TITANS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3.5): TITANS
Indy is about due for another suddenly terrible performance and the Titans have won two of their last three road games against the Colts. Derrick Henry also went off at this very site one year ago. I trust Tennessee more, especially with a field goal and a hook in my back pocket.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-6) AT DENVER BRONCOS: BRONCOS
Denver has won back-to-back home games against the Chargers and Dolphins, and now Vic Fangio has had a week to watch tape of Taysom Hill’s first start in place of injured Saints quarterback Drew Brees. The Denver defense is legit enough to keep this close in Colorado.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-7): RAMS
The 49ers might be coming off their bye and they might have defeated L.A. earlier this season, but San Francisco has since been gutted even worse by injuries and the Rams have taken off in every aspect of the game. This is great line value for the Rams, who should become the fourth team in a row to beat San Francisco by a double-digit margin.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3.5) AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: CHIEFS
The hook is scary here but Tom Brady has been horrible in big games, horrible against high-quality opponents and horrible on short rest. That’s a recipe for a no-doubt defeat at the hands of a Chiefs team that has lost one road game since December of 2018.
CHICAGO BEARS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (-8.5): PACKERS
This is a big number considering how strong Chicago’s defense is, but star Bears safety Eddie Jackson is now on the reserve/COVID-19 list, Aaron Rodgers and Co. should be fired up after a tough loss (they won handily immediately after their last two losses), and Chicago has no running game to take advantage of Green Bay’s vulnerable run D.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-5.5) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: SEAHAWKS
The Eagles are tempting here considering how much they need this prime-time home game, but Carson Wentz has been so atrocious on a weekly basis that there’s no reason to believe he can exploit a beatable Seattle pass defense. The Seahawks have also had extra time to prepare, and Russell Wilson might be getting back into a groove