We’re here to guide you with weekly picks against the spread every week, and we’re still hanging in above .500 approaching home stretch. Here are some fresh takes for Week 14, with odds coming from FanDuel, official betting partner of the NFL.
Get live NFL odds and matchup reports on every one of these games in our NFL Odds pages.
Packers @ Lions -3.5 – Play Detroit
The Lions have won 10 straight for a reason and its not because they wilt under the pressure of divisional games in prime time. Green Bay has surprised but is a full notch below Detroit i the NFC pecking order and that notch will grow bigger Thursday night,
The Lions are 15-4 ATS within the division and 12-3 ATS vs the Pack. We play the Lions, injuries and all.
Falcons @ Vikings -5.5 – Play Minnesota
There is a risk of a stumble here as the Vikes won 5 straight, lost two, then won five straight again. But the Falcons, coming off three losses, are not the team to spring the upset here.
Minnesota is 26-5 SU when laying points and the Falcons don’t pack much punch when catching points (4-12 ATS). The superior team at home trying to keep pace in the division is our play here.
Bengals -5.5 @ Dallas – Play Cincy
The Bengals score a ton but give up a ton against good offenses. Dallas is not a good offense so we are not sold on the Cowboys even catching 5.5 points at home here on MNF.
Cincy is 24-10 ATS on the road while the Cowboys ride a 1-7 ATS home streak. Dallas is 3-13 ATS on Mondays while Cincy dominates the NFC with 11 SU wins in 13 non-conference games. Dallas feels good after two wins, but it won’t be three. We play the Bengals.
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Archived NFL Week 14 picks article from Dec. 8, 2023
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Chicago Bears: Bears
That hook is pushing it way too far. The Lions have merely outscored their last four opponents by six total points, while the Bears are familiar with this squad and have had an extra week to prepare. They’ll hang in if not win it outright at home.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-11): 49ers
I’m just going to keep riding the Niners, who have won back-to-back road games against high-quality opponents by a combined margin of 73-32. They’ve also won four straight games by at least 13 points each overall, and their average margin of victory on the season is a ridiculous 13.6 points. They’ll roll here in blowout fashion at home.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5): Chiefs
The hell? Where is the respect for a team that has made three of the last four Super Bowls? Kansas City hasn’t been right but is experienced and resilient and damn talented, and it’s not as though the Bills have impressed anyone since September. It’s pretty shocking they aren’t even laying a field goal at Arrowhead, even if they’re quite banged up.
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Archived Week 14 NFL picks article from Dec. 9, 2022
Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) at New York Giants: Giants
The Eagles have bounced back but injuries are taking their toll and the familiar Giants are still competitive. That hook is too much in this spot.
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys (-17): Cowboys
I know this is a huge number but it can’t be huge enough. The Texans have lost three straight games by 13 or more points and the Cowboys have four blowout victories in the last six weeks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5): Buccaneers
I know San Francisco’s still loaded with weapons on both sides of the ball, but the quarterback situation is hugely problematic and we’re talking about Tom Brady in a big, desperate spot. I’ll take that hook any day.
New England Patriots (-2) at Arizona Cardinals: Patriots
The Patriots still have something to play for while the Cards look like they’re toast for 2022. Getting New England for less than a field goal is awesome.
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Archived Week 14 NFL picks article from Dec. 12, 2021
PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3): VIKINGS
The hosts rank 11 spots ahead of the visitors in terms of DVOA, so I’m really not sure why they’re essentially being viewed as their equal with this line. The inferior Steelers are way too risky in this road spot.
DALLAS COWBOYS (-4.5) AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM: WASHINGTON
Washington hasn’t lost a game since Halloween. I’m not laying more than a field goal against them with the inconsistent Cowboys on the road.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT TENNESSEE TITANS (-8.5): JAGUARS
You never know when the Jags are going to lay an egg, but they’ve hung with a lot of quality teams of late as well, and they’re damn familiar with this shorthanded Titans squad. Tennessee has been held to 13 points in back-to-back games, so I’m not comfortable laying more than a score.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-7.5) AT HOUSTON TEXANS: TEXANS
The Seahawks have to prove they’re back on track and that last week wasn’t an aberration. Regardless, they’re 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 games when favored by more than seven points. On the road, I’ll reluctantly take the points from them.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-9.5): RAIDERS
It’s underdog week here! Again, this is too many points considering that the Chiefs have been held to 22 or fewer in five of their last six outings. The Raiders often play K.C. well, and they’re very familiar with them. Throw in the backdoor factor and this wasn’t much of a debate.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-5.5) AT NEW YORK JETS: SAINTS
I think we’re looking at value for the Saints as a result of their five-game losing streak. That should end in this spot, and four of the last five Jets losses have come by 15-plus points.
ATLANTA FALCONS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (-2.5): FALCONS
I cringe whenever I take the Falcons, but Carolina is a complete mess right now and Atlanta has played respectable football on and off this season. I’d try to pay for Atlanta +3.
BALTIMORE RAVENS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-2.5): BROWNS
I still think the Browns are the better team here, and they’ve had two weeks to prepare for a Ravens team that is familiar and hasn’t been right offensively. Happy to lay less than a field goal.
NEW YORK GIANTS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-10): GIANTS
I’m not comfortable laying double digits with a Chargers team that has been remarkably inconsistent and lacks a true home-field advantage in L.A. With COVID-19 and injuries also factoring in, I’m all over the often-competitive G-Men here.
DETROIT LIONS AT DENVER BRONCOS (-8.5): LIONS
This spread shocks me. The Lions are 8-4 ATS and haven’t been outscored by more than a field goal since Week 9. Is Denver really even a handful of points better than this Detroit team? Come on!
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-1) AT CINCINNATI BENGALS: BENGALS
I don’t trust either team but it looks as though Joe Burrow is going to play for Cincinnati while Deebo Samuel looks like more of a longshot for San Francisco. The Bengals have bounced back well this season and should do so here.
BUFFALO BILLS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-3): BILLS
I just can’t see the Bills — who lead the league in points differential — losing yet again. They’ve followed up each of their last four losses with 15-plus-point wins, and can even afford a narrow loss here.
CHICAGO BEARS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (-11.5): BEARS
This is a bit of a gut feel. The Packers haven’t been crushing it and I think this is too many points with the desperate and familiar Bears in town. I wouldn’t bet on it though.
LOS ANGELES RAMS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (-2): CARDINALS
The Cards are the better, healthier, hotter team and they’re laying just two points at home? This is silly. The Rams have been a mess of late, so I’m not essentially taking them to win straight-up on the road.
Archived Week 14 NFL Picks article from Dec. 12, 2020
2020 RECORD: 95-88-5
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-5): PATRIOTS
Too many points. The Patriots aren’t going away and the Rams have been prone to too many duds. Bill Belichick will be ready for whatever Sean McVay has in store and this will be a close game.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (-1.5) AT NEW YORK GIANTS: GIANTS
I’m not convinced the Giants are suddenly a great team, but Arizona is a mess and New York’s D is strong enough to keep Kyler Murray in check. The Giants haven’t lost by more than two points since Week 5, the Cards haven’t won by more than two since Week 7 and Murray has become far less effective with his legs while posting a 85.3 passer rating in his last four games.
DALLAS COWBOYS (-3.5) AT CINCINNATI BENGALS: COWBOYS
Don’t you dare bet on this thing, but for these purposes I’ll stare down the hook with awful Dallas. At least the Cowboys have something to play for and some competent offensive players, whereas the Bengals are toast with no Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon or Jonah Williams. Cincy has averaged just 10.8 points per game the last four weeks. Not sure it can keep up.
DENVER BRONCOS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3.5): BRONCOS
Wouldn’t advise betting on this either. Both teams are 4-8 straight-up and 7-5 against the spread, both are banged up and that hook is scary. Still, the Panthers have just one win since Week 5, it’s not looking good for Christian McCaffrey and Denver played well against the mighty Kansas City Chiefs last week. I’ll take the 3.5 points.
HOUSTON TEXANS (-1) AT CHICAGO BEARS: TEXANS (Betrivers Illinois)
Matthew Stafford has stunk this year, but even he lit up the once-sick Bears defense despite not having top wideout Kenny Golladay in Week 13. That unit isn’t the same right now, and Deshaun Watson is the NFL’s third-highest-rated qualified passer. Give me Watson over Mitchell Trubisky with essentially a pick’em at essentially a neutral site.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7) AT MIAMI DOLPHINS: DOLPHINS
The Dolphins have the best ATS record in the NFL (9-3) and Kansas City hasn’t covered a spread in any of its last four games. The Chiefs are cutting it too close and the backdoor could also be open considering how hard these Dolphins fight. I’m not giving up a whole touchdown.
More Week 14 NFL Picks
MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-6.5): BUCCANEERS
The Vikings are so phony right now. They just outscored three bad teams who have a combined eight wins this season by a combined margin of one point during a three-game homestand. Sure, the Bucs have stumbled of late, but they struggle in prime time, on short rest and against high-caliber opponents. None of that applies here.
TENNESSEE TITANS (-7) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: JAGUARS
Tennessee barely got past the Jags when they met earlier this season in Nashville and Jacksonville easily beat the Titans in their last meeting in Florida. Four of the Jags’ last five games have been decided by four or fewer points, so a seven-point spread is pushing it in this spot.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3) AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: COLTS (BetRivers Indiana)
I don’t trust the Colts but I trust the Raiders even less. I mean, they were just embarrassed by the Falcons before needing a miracle to beat the winless Jets. Indy is the more talented team and is laying just a field goal in an empty stadium. I’ll reluctantly take that.
NEW YORK JETS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-13.5): JETS (SugarHouse NJ)
The Seahawks haven’t defeated anybody by more than 13 points this season, while three of the Jets’ last four losses have come by six or fewer points. It’s possible Russell Wilson will just hammer a terrible pass defense, but this number is just too high considering the way the Seahawks are playing.
ATLANTA FALCONS (-2.5) AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: CHARGERS
This is another game that shouldn’t be touched with a 10-foot pole, but if I have to take a side I’m rolling with a Chargers team that is more talented than the Falcons and will likely be pissed off after that ridiculous Week 13 loss to New England. Atlanta hasn’t earned the right to be favored on the other side of the country against Justin Herbert, who can carve up that atrocious pass D.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7.5) AT DETROIT LIONS: LIONS
The Lions put up a fight in the first game of the post-Matt Patricia era and should be fired up for a must-win game at home against an opponent that is damn good but has laid some eggs this year. One nearly came when the Lions led the Packers 14-3 in their first meeting this season. Green Bay ultimately won that one easily, but that was the team’s first victory over Detroit by more than a touchdown in their last 11 matchups. Watch for the Lions to hang again.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-7) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: SAINTS
The Eagles have been gashed by running quarterbacks on several occasions this season, which doesn’t bode well for a matchup with Taysom Hill. And while Jalen Hurts could provide a nice change of pace for the Philly offense, this isn’t the ideal spot for a starting debut. The Saints defense has surrendered just 8.8 points per game the last five weeks.
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-3): WASHINGTON
Why are the 49ers favored to beat a superior team at a neutral site? This makes no sense. Has everyone forgotten that San Francisco is without its quarterback, superstar tight end and basically its entire legendary defensive line? The 49ers can’t beat anybody but the Rams, their last five losses have all come by double-digit margins and Washington hasn’t lost by more than three points since Week 5.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT BUFFALO BILLS (-2.5): BILLS
This one scares me because I don’t totally trust a Bills team that is 9-4 despite barely having scored more points than it has allowed, but the Steelers are really hurting on both sides of the ball and I’m not sure those problems can be fixed on the road on short rest against a red-hot opponent. Plus, 2.5 points isn’t giving Buffalo enough credit at home.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-1.5) AT CLEVELAND BROWNS: BROWNS
This one is also scary because nobody wants to be burned by Browns Fever. Still, Baltimore hasn’t looked right and is operating on short rest against a Cleveland team that is really putting it all together. This might be a statement game against a familiar foe, especially if Cleveland gets top corner Denzel Ward back from a calf injury. I’m surprised the Browns aren’t laying at least a point or two at home.
