Nov 22, 2020; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) is pursued by Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Chris Smith (92) at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Week 14 NFL Picks

We’re here to guide you with weekly picks against the spread every week, and we’re still hanging in above .500 approaching home stretch. Here are 16 fresh takes for Week 14, with odds coming from Draft Kings and Fanduel, official betting partners of the NFL.

Get live NFL odds and matchup reports on every one of these games in our NFL Odds pages.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3): VIKINGS

The hosts rank 11 spots ahead of the visitors in terms of DVOA, so I’m really not sure why they’re essentially being viewed as their equal with this line. The inferior Steelers are way too risky in this road spot.

DALLAS COWBOYS (-4.5) AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM: WASHINGTON

Washington hasn’t lost a game since Halloween. I’m not laying more than a field goal against them with the inconsistent Cowboys on the road.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT TENNESSEE TITANS (-8.5): JAGUARS

You never know when the Jags are going to lay an egg, but they’ve hung with a lot of quality teams of late as well, and they’re damn familiar with this shorthanded Titans squad. Tennessee has been held to 13 points in back-to-back games, so I’m not comfortable laying more than a score.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-7.5) AT HOUSTON TEXANS: TEXANS

The Seahawks have to prove they’re back on track and that last week wasn’t an aberration. Regardless, they’re 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 games when favored by more than seven points. On the road, I’ll reluctantly take the points from them.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-9.5): RAIDERS

It’s underdog week here! Again, this is too many points considering that the Chiefs have been held to 22 or fewer in five of their last six outings. The Raiders often play K.C. well, and they’re very familiar with them. Throw in the backdoor factor and this wasn’t much of a debate.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-5.5) AT NEW YORK JETS: SAINTS

I think we’re looking at value for the Saints as a result of their five-game losing streak. That should end in this spot, and four of the last five Jets losses have come by 15-plus points.

ATLANTA FALCONS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (-2.5): FALCONS

I cringe whenever I take the Falcons, but Carolina is a complete mess right now and Atlanta has played respectable football on and off this season. I’d try to pay for Atlanta +3.

BALTIMORE RAVENS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-2.5): BROWNS

I still think the Browns are the better team here, and they’ve had two weeks to prepare for a Ravens team that is familiar and hasn’t been right offensively. Happy to lay less than a field goal.

NEW YORK GIANTS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-10): GIANTS

I’m not comfortable laying double digits with a Chargers team that has been remarkably inconsistent and lacks a true home-field advantage in L.A. With COVID-19 and injuries also factoring in, I’m all over the often-competitive G-Men here.

DETROIT LIONS AT DENVER BRONCOS (-8.5): LIONS

This spread shocks me. The Lions are 8-4 ATS and haven’t been outscored by more than a field goal since Week 9. Is Denver really even a handful of points better than this Detroit team? Come on!

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-1) AT CINCINNATI BENGALS: BENGALS

I don’t trust either team but it looks as though Joe Burrow is going to play for Cincinnati while Deebo Samuel looks like more of a longshot for San Francisco. The Bengals have bounced back well this season and should do so here.

BUFFALO BILLS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-3): BILLS

I just can’t see the Bills — who lead the league in points differential — losing yet again. They’ve followed up each of their last four losses with 15-plus-point wins, and can even afford a narrow loss here.

CHICAGO BEARS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (-11.5): BEARS

This is a bit of a gut feel. The Packers haven’t been crushing it and I think this is too many points with the desperate and familiar Bears in town. I wouldn’t bet on it though.

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (-2): CARDINALS

The Cards are the better, healthier, hotter team and they’re laying just two points at home? This is silly. The Rams have been a mess of late, so I’m not essentially taking them to win straight-up on the road.

Archived Week 14 NFL Picks article from Dec. 12, 2020

2020 RECORD: 95-88-5

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-5): PATRIOTS

Too many points. The Patriots aren’t going away and the Rams have been prone to too many duds. Bill Belichick will be ready for whatever Sean McVay has in store and this will be a close game.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-1.5) AT NEW YORK GIANTS: GIANTS

I’m not convinced the Giants are suddenly a great team, but Arizona is a mess and New York’s D is strong enough to keep Kyler Murray in check. The Giants haven’t lost by more than two points since Week 5, the Cards haven’t won by more than two since Week 7 and Murray has become far less effective with his legs while posting a 85.3 passer rating in his last four games.

DALLAS COWBOYS (-3.5) AT CINCINNATI BENGALS: COWBOYS

Don’t you dare bet on this thing, but for these purposes I’ll stare down the hook with awful Dallas. At least the Cowboys have something to play for and some competent offensive players, whereas the Bengals are toast with no Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon or Jonah Williams. Cincy has averaged just 10.8 points per game the last four weeks. Not sure it can keep up.

DENVER BRONCOS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3.5): BRONCOS

Wouldn’t advise betting on this either. Both teams are 4-8 straight-up and 7-5 against the spread, both are banged up and that hook is scary. Still, the Panthers have just one win since Week 5, it’s not looking good for Christian McCaffrey and Denver played well against the mighty Kansas City Chiefs last week. I’ll take the 3.5 points.

HOUSTON TEXANS (-1) AT CHICAGO BEARS: TEXANS (Betrivers Illinois)

Matthew Stafford has stunk this year, but even he lit up the once-sick Bears defense despite not having top wideout Kenny Golladay in Week 13. That unit isn’t the same right now, and Deshaun Watson is the NFL’s third-highest-rated qualified passer. Give me Watson over Mitchell Trubisky with essentially a pick’em at essentially a neutral site.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7) AT MIAMI DOLPHINS: DOLPHINS

The Dolphins have the best ATS record in the NFL (9-3) and Kansas City hasn’t covered a spread in any of its last four games. The Chiefs are cutting it too close and the backdoor could also be open considering how hard these Dolphins fight. I’m not giving up a whole touchdown.

More Week 14 NFL Picks

MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-6.5): BUCCANEERS

The Vikings are so phony right now. They just outscored three bad teams who have a combined eight wins this season by a combined margin of one point during a three-game homestand. Sure, the Bucs have stumbled of late, but they struggle in prime time, on short rest and against high-caliber opponents. None of that applies here.

TENNESSEE TITANS (-7) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: JAGUARS

Tennessee barely got past the Jags when they met earlier this season in Nashville and Jacksonville easily beat the Titans in their last meeting in Florida. Four of the Jags’ last five games have been decided by four or fewer points, so a seven-point spread is pushing it in this spot.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3) AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: COLTS (BetRivers Indiana)

I don’t trust the Colts but I trust the Raiders even less. I mean, they were just embarrassed by the Falcons before needing a miracle to beat the winless Jets. Indy is the more talented team and is laying just a field goal in an empty stadium. I’ll reluctantly take that.

NEW YORK JETS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-13.5): JETS (SugarHouse NJ)

The Seahawks haven’t defeated anybody by more than 13 points this season, while three of the Jets’ last four losses have come by six or fewer points. It’s possible Russell Wilson will just hammer a terrible pass defense, but this number is just too high considering the way the Seahawks are playing.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-2.5) AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: CHARGERS

This is another game that shouldn’t be touched with a 10-foot pole, but if I have to take a side I’m rolling with a Chargers team that is more talented than the Falcons and will likely be pissed off after that ridiculous Week 13 loss to New England. Atlanta hasn’t earned the right to be favored on the other side of the country against Justin Herbert, who can carve up that atrocious pass D.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7.5) AT DETROIT LIONS: LIONS

The Lions put up a fight in the first game of the post-Matt Patricia era and should be fired up for a must-win game at home against an opponent that is damn good but has laid some eggs this year. One nearly came when the Lions led the Packers 14-3 in their first meeting this season. Green Bay ultimately won that one easily, but that was the team’s first victory over Detroit by more than a touchdown in their last 11 matchups. Watch for the Lions to hang again.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-7) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: SAINTS

The Eagles have been gashed by running quarterbacks on several occasions this season, which doesn’t bode well for a matchup with Taysom Hill. And while Jalen Hurts could provide a nice change of pace for the Philly offense, this isn’t the ideal spot for a starting debut. The Saints defense has surrendered just 8.8 points per game the last five weeks.

WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-3): WASHINGTON

Why are the 49ers favored to beat a superior team at a neutral site? This makes no sense. Has everyone forgotten that San Francisco is without its quarterback, superstar tight end and basically its entire legendary defensive line? The 49ers can’t beat anybody but the Rams, their last five losses have all come by double-digit margins and Washington hasn’t lost by more than three points since Week 5.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT BUFFALO BILLS (-2.5): BILLS

This one scares me because I don’t totally trust a Bills team that is 9-4 despite barely having scored more points than it has allowed, but the Steelers are really hurting on both sides of the ball and I’m not sure those problems can be fixed on the road on short rest against a red-hot opponent. Plus, 2.5 points isn’t giving Buffalo enough credit at home.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-1.5) AT CLEVELAND BROWNS: BROWNS

This one is also scary because nobody wants to be burned by Browns Fever. Still, Baltimore hasn’t looked right and is operating on short rest against a Cleveland team that is really putting it all together. This might be a statement game against a familiar foe, especially if Cleveland gets top corner Denzel Ward back from a calf injury. I’m surprised the Browns aren’t laying at least a point or two at home.

Brad Gagnon has been passionate about both sports and mass media since he was in diapers -- a passion that won't die until he's in them again. He was a lead contributor to an earlier incarnation of NationalFootballPost.com and was happy to return when new management revived the brand in 2020. Based in Toronto, he's covered the NFL since 2008 and has been a national NFL writer at Bleacher Report since 2012. He despises all 32 NFL teams equally but remains a fan of the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He can be reached at Brad@NationalFootballPost.com

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