Week 14 TD Prop Picks: Marquez Valdes-Scantling TD on SNF
We’re back for Week 14 in the NFL with touchdown props you should have on your radar. I’ll be taking these at both an individual level and likely building them into a parlay for some fun.
For touchdown scorers, it’s best to find players with plus-odds. For example, I love Javonte Williams against the Lions this weekend, but his odds are currently -175.
Browns TE Austin Hooper: +280 on FanDuel
The Ravens are tied for the fourth-most TDs allowed to tight ends, so it was an immediate spot to dig into.
Austin Hooper of the Browns is the top TE on this team. He played 90 percent of the snaps in their last game (against this same Ravens team) and has seen steady target volume, averaging 4.6 per game in his last five.
With David Njoku out this weekend, Hooper’s stock is even higher. Love this value in what I expect to be much higher-scoring than the 16-10 game these teams played in Week 12.
Panthers WR DJ Moore: +160 on Caesars
At first glance, I considered including Tommy Tremble (+550) in this game, considering the Buccaneers just had three tight end touchdowns against the Falcons.
Atlanta’s numbers against TEs are a bit inflated off that performance, having held TEs out of the end zone for five straight games prior to last week.
Generosity to wide receiver scoring has been consistent, allowing 1.25 WR touchdowns per game.
In slots DJ Moore, the top receiver on the Panthers by a significant margin. Moore had a red zone target in each of Cam Newton’s first two starts and has played 95 percent of the snaps the past two weeks.
With consistent volume against a soft opponent, I’ll gladly take Moore at +160.
D’Onta Foreman: +150 on DraftKings
The Jaguars allow one rushing touchdown per game, on average, and D’Onta Foreman seems to be the top back in Tennessee, at least near the goal line.
Foreman had six red-zone carries in the Titans’ most recent game. Interestingly, he’s failed to get into the end zone this season. While I don’t like chasing someone who feels “due,” the volume is there to yield a touchdown sooner before later.
Not many softer opponents than Jacksonville, which allows the fourth-most points per game.
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce: -125 on DraftKings
This goes against my edict of plus-money only, but we can’t ignore the matchup Travis Kelce has for himself on Sunday.
The Raiders allow the most yards to tight ends and the second-most touchdowns per game to the position. When these two teams met in Week 10, Kelce finished with eight catches for 119 yards, but it was backup TE Noah Gray who caught a touchdown.
Las Vegas has seen a tight end score against them in seven of their past nine games, and Kelce gives us the volume to get in the end zone.
I will be including Kelce in one of my touchdown parlays. If you’d rather take a shot at Kelce having a big game, you can bet him to score twice at +450 on DraftKings.
Saints RB Alvin Kamara To Score Two TDs: +350 on DraftKings
Alvin Kamara is back, and boy do the Saints need his juice on offense. He’ll get the best-case scenario for a return game against the Jets, which has had the worst defense against running backs all season.
The Jets allow 1.83 touchdowns per game to RBs, and given Kamara’s massive usage rate in this offense, I like his chances to find the end zone twice. Kamara has scored twice or more in a game six times since the beginning of last season.
Alternatively, Kamara to score at -175 is another great addition to a touchdown parlay.
Bills WR Stefon Diggs: +140 on BetMGM
Stefon Diggs leads Buffalo in all major receiving categories — playing time, targets and red-zone work — so he’s always a good bet to find the end zone.
Diggs has seven touchdowns this season and will face a Tampa Bay team that sees the most pass attempts per game against them.
In what is a must-win game for Buffalo, it would behoove Josh Allen to look to his most talented receiver.
The Bucs allow 1.8 passing touchdowns per game, tied for the fourth-highest mark in the NFL.
Packers WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling: +170 on DraftKings
The Bears defense is ranked 22nd in pass DVOA and is allowing receivers to rack up the seventh-highest touchdown rate against them.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Green Bay’s deep threat, has seen serious volume lately, with 19 targets in his past two games, averaging 75.5 percent snaps played in that span.
Considering his role in this offense and that the Bears have seen the ninth-most 40-plus-yard passes completed against them, I like MVS on “Sunday Night Football.”
I expect Green Bay to dominate and put up points in bunches, so let’s end our Sunday in style.
–By Griffin Carroll, Field Level Media
For more from Griffin Carroll, follow him on Twitter @griffybets.