Nov 24, 2019; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Sam Hubbard (94) during the fourth quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

Week 15 NFL Betting Trends

The Steelers are double digit road favorites again (fade them) and the Patriots are underdogs again (back them) as Week 15 NFL betting trends come flying out of the awesome pro football database.

The LA Rams see their biggest spread since 2001 (no surprise, the Jets are in town) and the Bengals see the second-biggest home dog number in their history as well. New Orleans is a rare home dog, a situation that has seen bettors profit nicely over the years.

Lines are early numbers from Tuesday morning courtesy of BetRivers and SugarHouse, watch our live NFL odds page during the week for line moves.

Thursday Night Football Betting Trends

LA Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders: -3.5, Total 53 | Matchup Report

The Chargers have lost nine straight divisional games and are 1-8 ATS in those games. They have also lost nine straight overall as underdogs.

Raiders are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 divisional games.

Chargers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games at Raiders.

Chargers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Thursday.

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: +6.5 Total 50 | Matchup Report

The Bills usually win as favorites, we say it every week. But this is a bigger number as road chalk.

Bills are 19-3 SU in their last 22 games when playing as the favourite

Broncos are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against Buffalo.

Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against an opponent in the AFC.

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers: -8.5 Total 51.5 | Matchup Report

Carolina has covered five straight road games and have been tough lately as underdogs. Some OVER trends to watch here.

Panthers are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games played in Week 15.

OVER is 7-1 Carolina’s last 8 games against Green Bay.

OVER is 10-2 Carolina’s last 12 games played on a Saturday.

Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing as the underdog.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: -7, Total 52.5 | Matchup Report

The Colts have played nine straight Week 15 UNDERS. Why? No idea, but the streak extends to 14-3 the past 17 seasons.

Colts are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games when playing at home against Houston.

UNDER is 9-2 Houston’s last 11 games at Indianapolis

Texans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 divisional games.

Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans: -11.5, Total 54.5 | Matchup Report

Not much to see here other than an OVER angle (17-4) in Tennessee’s last 21 games played on a Sunday.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: -3, Total 46 | Matchup Report

The Vikings usually win SU as favorites and are 6-2 ATS in eight recent divisional games.

Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games

Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 divisional games

Vikings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 divisional games.

Vikings are 19-6 SU in their last 25 games as favorites.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons: +5.5, Total 50.5 | Matchup Report

OVER trends anyone?

OVER is 7-1 Tampa Bay’s last 8 games against Atlanta.

OVER is 23-8 Tampa Bay’s last 31 games on the road.

OVER is 9-2 Tampa Bay’s last 11 divisional games

Seattle Seahawks at Washington: +6, Total 44.5 | Matchup Report

UNDER trends anyone?

UNDER is 10-3 Washington’s last 13 games vs NFC West division.

UNDER is 12-2 Seattle’s last 14 games vs NFC East division.

Washington is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as the underdog.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens: -13, Total 46 | Matchup Report

The Jaguars have covered 5 straight vs the Ravens but have lost 6 of 7 SU here over the years. Jags have been double-digit road dogs twice this season and covered both times at Minnesota and Green Bay.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: -2.5, Total 41.5 | Matchup Report

The Patriots remain a tough out as an underdog. The Dolphins usually cover at home to the Pats (5-2 ATS streak).

Dolphins 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Sunday home games.

Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games at Miami.

Patriots are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as underdogs.

Dolphins 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as chalk.

Dolphins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 divisional games.

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys: +2.5, Total 45 | Matchup Report

The Cowboys have covered 5 straight as home underdogs dating back to 2017, winning four games outright.

Cowboys are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games against conference foes.

New York Jets at LA Rams: -17 Total 44 | Matchup Report

If this line stays above -14, it’s the biggest Rams spread since 2001 when they were -20 at home to Carolina. For the Jets, this will be the sixth time since 1980 they catch 17 points or more (fourth time in past two seasons.)

UNDER is 15-3 LA Rams’ last 18 games as favorites.

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals: -6.5, Total 48.5 | Matchup Report

All trends are off with the Eagles rolling a rookie QB. Historically, they do not win here (2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS past 10 games at Arizona).

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints: +3.5 Total 51.5 | Matchup Report

New Orleans is a home dog for the first time this season and just the 8th time since 2012. And they make teams pay, with a 6-1 ATS streak in those games, winning five outright for moneyline bettors.

The Chiefs are 21-1 SU in their past 22 games, but failed to cover the past five. Orleans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing as the underdog.

Cleveland Browns vs New York Giants: +3.5 Total 45 | Matchup Report

Cleveland tries to rebound from epic MNF loss against a Giants team that is 7-1 ATS in its past 8 tries as underdogs.

Browns 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Sunday road games

Giants are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games

Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as the underdog.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: +13, Total 40.5 | Matchup Report

So we are back to this again, the Steelers as double-digit road favorites and their money-losing ways over many decades. They covered at Jacksonville a few weeks ago in this position to bring their record to 2-13 ATS since 1980! Interestingly, the past 8 times all played UNDER the total as well. This currently sits as the second biggest home dog number ever for Cincinnati, as they were +15 against Dallas Oct. 30, 1994 and almost won as Jeff Blake threw two TDs to a guy named Darnay Scott in a 23-20 loss.

Steelers 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 games at Cincinnati.

Steelers are 19-3 SU in their last 22 games against Cincinnati.

UNDER is 16-4 Pittsburgh’s last 20 road games.

Bengals are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games

Steelers are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games played on a Monday.

5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a Monday when playing on the road

Week 15 NFL Betting Trends updates

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.

Bet Week 15

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Upcoming Games

Aug 5th, 8:00 PM

Dallas +1 -110

Pittsburgh -1 -110

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Aug 12th, 7:30 PM

Washington -2 -110

New England +2 -110

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Aug 12th, 7:30 PM

Pittsburgh +1 -110

Philadelphia -1 -110

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