Dec 10, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) gestures to an official after a play against the Buffalo Bills during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Week 15 Picks – Broncos, Colts, Chiefs

We’re here to guide you with weekly picks against the spread every week, and we’re still hanging in above .500 approaching home stretch. Here are fresh takes for Week 15, with odds as of Wednesday night courtesy of Draft Kings sportsbook.

Get matchup reports on every game along with live updated football betting odds and check out Trend Dummy’s weekly deep dive into the NFL database.

Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (-4.5): Broncos

The Lions have no business laying more than a few points here. They’ve gone just 2-2 in their last four games while being easily outscored on a whole by four sub-.500 teams, while the Broncos have just one lost straight-up since the middle of October. They’re simply the better team right now,

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5): Colts

I think it’s finally time to write off the usually-competitive Steelers, who have lost back-to-back home games to two of the worst teams in the league and now have to go on the road to play an Indy squad that just lost its first game since the start of November. Neither team is good, but the Colts should be getting at least a full field goal at home.

Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) at New England Patriots: Chiefs

The Chiefs have had a weird season, but in games against teams that currently have fewer than six wins, they’re 4-0 with an average final score of 32-16. The Pats have just three wins and don’t have the talent to string together multiple Ws in a row. I’m expecting K.C. to make a statement in a blowout.

 

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Archived Week 15 NFL picks article form Dec, 19, 2022

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-7): Bills

Considering how often the Bills have stumbled this season, this is a big number against a division rival that beat Buffalo earlier this season. This feels like a field goal game.

Detroit Lions at New York Jets (-1.5): Lions

I don’t get it. These teams are moving in completely different directions right now. The spirited Lions should have laying a field goal against a Jets squad that looks defeated.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Buccaneers

I went wrong with the Bucs last week but they’re getting a hook at home in a desperate spot with Tom Brady’s season on the line? That’s a little much considering that the Bengals haven’t exactly been dominating.

Dallas Cowboys (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars: Cowboys

The Cowboys’ average margin of victory since the start of October is 18.6 points and it’s very hard to trust the inconsistent Jags coming off a win of their own. Cowboys by double digits.

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Archived Week 15 NFL Picks article from Dec. 17, 2021

2021 RECORD: 105-102-1

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3) AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: CHIEFS

I don’t feel good about an inconsistent Chargers team coming off back-to-back wins. The Chiefs have covered four consecutive spreads and aren’t getting enough love from oddsmakers.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-1) AT CLEVELAND BROWNS: BROWNS

COVID-19 is wrecking this game. I just think a desperate Browns team has gained a lot of value as a result, and I still don’t trust the Raiders on the road.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-2.5): COLTS

The Patriots have covered seven consecutive spreads and are an underdog against a so-so opponent coming off their bye? Bill Belichick deserves more credit with this much time to prepare for an opponent.

DALLAS COWBOYS (-11) AT NEW YORK GIANTS: COWBOYS

I just think the Giants are running out of gas after a brutal pair of losses. Meanwhile, Ezekiel Elliott is getting healthier for a Dallas team that really needs to take care of business on extra rest.

HOUSTON TEXANS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-4): TEXANS

The Jaguars haven’t won by four points in any of their last 28 games. You’d have to be nuts to lay more than a field goal here, regardless of how bad Houston is.

TENNESSEE TITANS (-1.5) AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS: STEELERS

Tennessee is starting to feel the impact of Derrick Henry’s absence, and the always-feisty, experienced Steelers should be getting more spread love as the home side here.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-12.5) AT DETROIT LIONS: CARDINALS

The Lions fight, but they’ve still lost four games by 18-plus points this season. The Cards really need to bounce back and aren’t likely to cut it close here.

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT BUFFALO BILLS (-11): BILLS 

Every single Bills win this season has come by 15 or more points. I have no reason to believe that won’t continue with desperate Buffalo hosting a Panthers squad in turmoil.

NEW YORK JETS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (-10): DOLPHINS

The Jets have seven 15-plus-point losses this season, and the well-rested Dolphins are inspired as they ride a five-game winning streak into a matchup with a familiar opponent. I can’t see Gang Green hanging.

WASHINGTON AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-7): WFT

I wouldn’t bet this game considering the COVID-19 factor with regard to Washington’s defense, but the Covid-related line movements have seemed a little dramatic in spots. This is a potential example. Are we forgetting that the Eagles are a losing team?

CINCINNATI BENGALS AT DENVER BRONCOS (-2.5): BENGALS

The Bengals haven’t lost three in a row all season, and I think they’ll avoid that again here. They’ve been good on the road all year and Denver’s top two backs are banged up.

ATLANTA FALCONS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-9.5): FALCONS

I dread backing the Falcons but 9.5 is really pushing it considering that San Francisco has been good, not great. That said, I’d avoid this one as well.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-5) AT BALTIMORE RAVENS: PACKERS

The Packers are 11-2 ATS while the Ravens have just two regulation wins in their last seven games. Let’s not overthink this one, especially with Lamar Jackson hurting.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-4.5): SEAHAWKS

Russell Wilson and Co. have rediscovered their groove, and they really freakin’ need this one. The Rams are shorthanded on short rest after a big victory Monday night. This should be a field-goal spread.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-11): SAINTS

The favorite has covered in each of the last seven games containing double-digit spreads, but that trend can’t continue forever. The Saints are too scrappy behind Sean Payton to be getting 11 points from a familiar foe, and the backdoor is too hard to ignore here.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3.5) AT CHICAGO BEARS: BEARS

These Vikings lost to the Lions two weeks ago. I’m not messing with that hook for a divisional road game.

Archived NFL Week 15 picks article from Dec. 17, 2020

2020 RECORD: 104-95-5

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-3): CHARGERS

Nobody knows what the hell to expect right now with these two unreliable teams, but the Chargers are more talented than Las Vegas despite the gap in their records and the wheels appear to be falling off for the Raiders. Their only win Week 10 came on that ridiculous tank-job Hail Mary against the New York Jets. The most likely scenario is Raiders by a field goal but I’ll take the points.

BUFFALO BILLS (-6) AT DENVER BRONCOS: BILLS

The Bills have won three consecutive games by double-digit margins and I’m not convinced Drew Lock’s strong Week 14 performance wasn’t an aberration. I trust the Bills enough to risk less than a converted touchdown.

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (-8): PACKERS

The Packers have won an NFC-high six games by 14-plus points this season and Carolina is unlikely to get Christian McCaffrey back in time to exploit Green Bay’s vulnerable run defense. The Panthers might also be resigned after the Broncos essentially ended their season in Week 14.

CHICAGO BEARS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3): BEARS

The Vikings’ “run” earlier in the second half of the season was overhyped and Mitchell Trubisky is suddenly playing well. It might be too little, too late to earn a 2021 starting job but it could be enough to win a close game in Minnesota. I’ll put that field goal in my back pocket.

DETROIT LIONS AT TENNESSEE TITANS (-10.5): TITANS

This number will likely move one way or the other based on Matthew Stafford’s final status, but it doesn’t look as though the veteran quarterback will suit up. Throw in Kenny Golladay’s injury and the fact the Lions might be dejected after that tough Green Bay loss and a Titans blowout could be in the cards as Derrick Henry keeps rolling against a terrible defense.

HOUSTON TEXANS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-7): COLTS

I thought long and hard about the Texans here since they nearly beat the Colts two weeks ago, but since then they’ve lost two more defensive starters to season-ending injuries and this time they’re on the road. Colts by 10.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (-13): JAGUARS

I like James Robinson against a very beatable run defense, I don’t like the Ravens on short rest after an exhausting Monday Night Football victory and I’ve got a potential backdoor cover on my side from a bad but feisty Jags team that could get a jolt from Gardner Minshew II in his first start since October.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (-2): PATRIOTS

Bill Belichick has won 10 consecutive games against rookie quarterbacks by an average margin of 34-12. In his last three games against first-round rookie signal-callers, the Pats have outscored the competition 118-17. And in this case, he’s had extra time to prepare for Tua Tagovailoa while stewing over an embarrassing loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Patriots win this outright.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-5.5) AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM: WASHINGTON

Seattle is traveling three time zones for a 10 a.m. kickoff against one of the fiercest defensive fronts in the NFL. That’s not a good recipe. The WFT hasn’t lost by more than a field goal since Week 5 and I don’t see that happening here. This should be a pick’em.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-3) AT DALLAS COWBOYS: COWBOYS

Since the start of November, the 49ers haven’t come within eight points of anybody except the Rams. They seem to have their division rival’s number but they’re not competitive otherwise right now. The Cowboys aren’t in much better shape but they’ve at least gone toe-to-toe with teams like Minnesota and the Pittsburgh Steelers recently. Dallas should win outright.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-6.5) AT ATLANTA FALCONS: BUCCANEERS

The Buccaneers are 6-0 straight-up and 5-1 against the spread with an average margin of victory of 16.5 points in non-prime-time games against teams not currently in the playoff picture. In other words, they take care of business when they’re supposed to. And in this spot, all of those stars are aligning again. This should be a blowout.

NEW YORK JETS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-17.5): RAMS

This could easily be a Jets cover with this wacky line but how could anyone pick them in their current state? The Seahawks just hammered them and there’s no reason to believe the result will be any different here.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6): CARDINALS 

I think the Cardinals spent a week watching Jalen Hurts tape and will be much more prepared than the Saints were one week ago. That said, I don’t trust either of these teams right now.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3) AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: CHIEFS

The Chiefs should also benefit from extra tape on Taysom Hill, who struggled in Philly and will have a taller task if Drew Brees can’t suit up here. And even if Brees plays, how far will he be from 100 percent? The Chiefs have won 10 straight road games by at least a field goal and there’s little reason to believe that streak won’t continue in a half-empty Superdome.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-5) AT NEW YORK GIANTS: BROWNS

I think the spark is going out for the Giants, while the Browns should be fired up after an inspiring performance against the Ravens. This is a good matchup for Baker Mayfield, and Daniel Jones might not be healthy enough for a Giants team that hasn’t scored 20 points since Week 10.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-11.5) AT CINCINNATI BENGALS: STEELERS 

The Bengals are toast. Smoking them will be a cathartic experience for the Steelers, who need a walk in the park against a bad defense. Pittsburgh is also vulnerable on D right now, but the Bengals have nobody left on offense. The Steelers should be laying two touchdowns minimum.

Brad Gagnon has been passionate about both sports and mass media since he was in diapers -- a passion that won't die until he's in them again. He was a lead contributor to an earlier incarnation of NationalFootballPost.com and was happy to return when new management revived the brand in 2020. Based in Toronto, he's covered the NFL since 2008 and has been a national NFL writer at Bleacher Report since 2012. He despises all 32 NFL teams equally but remains a fan of the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He can be reached at Brad@NationalFootballPost.com

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