Dec 20, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) at the line against the New Orleans Saints during the second half at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Week 16 NFL Betting Trends

NFL Trends for Week 16

Christmas week means plenty of giving, with the NFL offering up football betting action on Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Your welcome…

There are large spreads and small spread and profitable Week 16 NFL betting trends to mine from our deep dives into the NFL handicapping database. Cleveland sees its biggest road point spread ever, Tampa Bay tries to fight off a terrible Saturday trend and the Giants look to continue an awesome road betting angle.

Check it out, with lines as of Tuesday at BetRivers and SugarHouse. For NFL odds updates during the week, visit the NFL odds page.

Thursday

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints -7: Total 52 | Matchup Report

Not much to see here, except a positive Vikings trends (6-1 ATS in their last 7 games at New Orleans).

Friday

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions +9.5: Total 54 | Matchup Report

The Bucs are seldom big road chalk (just five times since 1980 laying nine points or more) and they have never covered in this situation. Can Tom Terrific change that trend?

Bucs are 1-12-1 ATS in their last 14 games played on a Saturday

Lions are 3-18 SU in their last 21 games as underdog.

Bucs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against Detroit.

OVER is 11-3 Tampa Bay’s last 14 road games.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals -4.5: Total 49 | Matchup Report

Niners are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games.

Niners are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Arizona.

Cardinals 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on a Saturday when playing at home.

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders +2.5: Total 47.5 | Matchup Report

Lots of positive Miami trends here and an OVER trend when Vegas plays AFC East teams (11-2 past 13).

Dolphins 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games

Dolphins 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games against Las Vegas

Dolphins 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games against an opponent in the AFC.

Dolphins 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games when playing as the favorite

Saturday

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets +9.5: Total 46.5 | Matchup Report

This is the biggest road spread in franchise history for Cleveland, with the previous high of -7.5 just a few weeks ago at Jacksonville.

Browns 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games on the road.

Browns 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against an opponent in the AFC.

Browns 8-1 SU in their last 9 games when playing as the favorite.

Jets lost 10 straight divisional games SU

Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs -10.5: Total 53.5 | Matchup Report

Falcons were double digit road underdogs twice in 2019 and won outright both times. They are 8-2 ATS in this situation since 2003. Chiefs keep winning but are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.

Falcons 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games against an opponent in the AFC

Last five meetings all played OVER the total

Falcons 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on the road

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans -9: Total 45 | Matchup Report

Cincy hasn’t won a road game in forever and they never cover against Houston.

Bengals 0-18-1 SU in their last 19 games on the road

Bengals 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against Houston.

Carolina Panthers at Washington Football Team -2.5: Total 44.5 | Matchup Report

Panthers 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on the road

Past six meetings here all played UNDER the total

Panthers 6-22 SU in their last 28 games against an opponent in the NFC

Panthers 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games when playing as the underdog.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5: Total 44.5 | Matchup Report

The Colts usually lose as underdogs (6-23 SU past 29 games) but the Steelers look like a train wreck.

Steelers 15-1 SU in their last 16 games when playing at home against Colts

OVER in 9 of Indianapolis’ last 11 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh

New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens -10.5: Total 45 | Matchup Report

Giants are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 games on the road.

Giants 4-21 SU in their last 25 games when playing as the underdog but 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games when getting points.

Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5: Total 47 | Matchup Report

Not much to see here, the Bears usually fail to cover as favorites (3-11 ATS in their last 14 games in this spot).

Denver Broncos at LA Chargers -3: Total 48.5 | Matchup Report

UNDER trends anyone?

UNDER is 13 Denver’s last 16 divisional games

UNDER is 9-2 Denver’s last 11 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers.

LA Rams at Seattle Seahawks -1.5: Total 47.5 | Matchup Report

Not much here either, except Rams have been profitable road bets.

Rams 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games on the road.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys +2: Total 49.5 | Matchup Report

The Eagles have been road favorites twice this year and lost 27-17 in both games this year. Seems logical they would lose here 27-17 as well, despite their recent string of wins within the NFC East.

Eagles 18-6 SU in their last 24 divisional games

Eagles 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on the road.

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers -3.5: Total 56 | Matchup Report

Green Bay is 11-1 SU in their last 12 Sunday home games while Tennessee trends OVER.

OVER is 20-7 Tennessee’s last 27 games.

OVER is 11-4 Tennessee’s last 15 games as the underdog.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots +7: Total 46 | Matchup Report

The Bills have covered six straight spreads but are just 1-5 ATS in their past six divisional games.

Bills are 20-3 SU in their last 23 games as the favorite

Patriots 17-2 SU in their last 19 games at home against Buffalo

Patriots are 16-5 SU in their last 21 games played on a Monday.

Patriots 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games when playing as the underdog

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.

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