Dec 20, 2020; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) gestures at the line against the New York Giants during the third quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Week 16 NFL Picks

We’re here to guide you with weekly picks against the spread every week, and we’re still well above .500 approaching home stretch. Here are 16 fresh takes for Week 16, with odds coming from BetRivers and SugarHouse.

2020 RECORD: 112-100-8

MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-6.5): SAINTS

I think the Vikings might be deflated after a season-killing loss to the Chicago Bears and the Saints are too experienced not to bounce back strong from a tough defeat of their own. They came back from a December loss with a blowout over the Indianapolis Colts last December and I’m expecting something similar here.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-9.5) AT DETROIT LIONS: LIONS

Matthew Stafford seems to be on a mission right now. Dude would play with one leg and he seems to perform better when he’s hurting. It’s hard to trust the slow-starting Bucs against him, especially on the road.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (-5): CARDINALS 

The 49ers only know how to beat the Los Angeles Rams. They’ve lost every other game they’ve played since Week 8 by at least eight points and this should be no exception. The home team needs this.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3) AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: DOLPHINS 

The Raiders are a mess and might not even have quarterback Derek Carr in front of an empty stadium as they come down from a season-ending loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Why the hell are they only getting three points from the top defensive team in the NFL?

ATLANTA FALCONS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-10.5): CHIEFS

The Falcons haven’t lost a game by more than a handful of points since Week 11 and the Chiefs haven’t won by more than a score since Week 8 but both are due for more extreme results here. Atlanta doesn’t have the personnel to take advantage of a vulnerable run defense and it might not even have center Alex Mack for this one.

CHICAGO BEARS (-7) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: BEARS

The Jags aren’t going to risk losing the top pick and the Bears look revitalized. Jacksonville has been pounded the last two weeks and David Montgomery should make easy work of that horrendous defense.

 

CINCINNATI BENGALS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (-8.5): TEXANS

The Bengals won their Super Bowl last week and should come back to earth against a much more talented opponent. Cincinnati had scored just 12.5 points per game in its previous five outings before that aberration against the Steelers in Week 15.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-9.5) AT NEW YORK JETS: BROWNS

The Jets should be in a similar spot here. They won’t mess around after accidentally winning in Week 15, and this matters a lot to a Browns team that is rolling.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-2) AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS: COLTS

The Steelers have seriously been one of the worst teams in the NFL the last three weeks, and they were only mediocre in the lead-up to this ugly three-game losing streak. They have a multitude of issues and could have a lot of trouble with a strong defense and the emerging Jonathan Taylor. Colts roll.

NEW YORK GIANTS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (-11): RAVENS

The Ravens have won a league-high seven games by 14-plus points this season and the Giants have come back to earth after a decent midseason stretch. The G-Men have been pounded the last two weeks and won’t have a healthy Daniel Jones again in Baltimore. This is a blowout waiting to happen.

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (-2.5): PANTHERS

I’m going against my gut a bit here just because this line has been pushed down by sharps and I’m wondering if Washington is also coming down from an unexpected spike. There’s also a chance Alex Smith doesn’t play or is less than 100 percent, which could be problematic. A Dwayne Haskins start moves this close to a pick’em.

DENVER BRONCOS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-3): CHARGERS

Don’t bother with a game between two eliminated teams that involves the friggin’ Chargers, but if you have no choice, roll with the more talented home team with just three points on the line.

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-1): SEAHAWKS

The Rams are so overrated and I don’t think they’ll recover from that joke of a performance against the Jets. Seattle’s defense has turned a corner and is especially strong against the run, which is L.A.’s bread and butter.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-2) AT DALLAS COWBOYS: EAGLES

Don’t be fooled by the fact the Cowboys have a better record than Philly, or the fact the Eagles are coming off a loss and the Cowboys are coming off back-to-back victories. Philly looks fired up with Jalen Hurts under center and has gone toe-to-toe with the Saints and Cardinals the last two weeks, and the only Dallas wins since mid-October have come against the Vikings, Bengals and 49ers. The Eagles should be favored here.

TENNESSEE TITANS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3.5): TITANS

Derrick Henry with a field goal and a hook on his side against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL? Come on! The Packers have one win all season against a winning team. The experienced, resilient TItans will at least keep this very close.

BUFFALO BILLS (-7) AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: BILLS

I think the Patriots are going to phone this thing in and maximize their draft capital the rest of the way, and Buffalo will want to make a statement against a former bully. The Bills have won four consecutive games by double-digit margins and New England has scored just 15 points the last two weeks.

Brad Gagnon has been passionate about both sports and mass media since he was in diapers -- a passion that won't die until he's in them again. He was a lead contributor to an earlier incarnation of NationalFootballPost.com and was happy to return when new management revived the brand in 2020. Based in Toronto, he's covered the NFL since 2008 and has been a national NFL writer at Bleacher Report since 2012. He despises all 32 NFL teams equally but remains a fan of the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He can be reached at Brad@NationalFootballPost.com

Bet Week 16

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Upcoming Games

Aug 5th, 8:00 PM

Dallas +1.5 -110

Pittsburgh -1.5 -110

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Aug 12th, 7:30 PM

Washington -2.5 -110

New England +2.5 -110

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Aug 12th, 7:30 PM

Pittsburgh +1 -110

Philadelphia -1 -110

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