Maybe you’ve already got your picks in for Week 16 of the NFL regular season, but by focusing only on point spreads, moneylines or fantasy, you’re robbing yourself of potential opportunities to make money on over/unders.
Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears (40.5): OVER
The Bills’ defense is strong but so is their offense, of course! And the Bears have one of the most vulnerable defensive units in the league. Throw in the Justin Fields factor and this total is shockingly low.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals (40.5): OVER
Similar sentiment here. Neither offense has been strong this season, but we’re still talking about Tom Brady, Kyler Murray and two defenses with their own issues. The Bucs have been gashed defensively in back-to-back weeks while the Cards have the league’s worst-ranked scoring D. This should sail into the 40s or 50s.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (47.5): UNDER
I think we saw an aberration with the Dallas defense last week against Jacksonville. There’s a lot of talent there, and these teams could play it close to the vest in a big spot. Throw in the Jalen Hurts injury and this is too high.
Archived NFL Week 16 OVER UNDER picks article from Dec. 23, 2021
2021 RECORD: 31-33
Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals: 48.5
The Colts have surrendered 17 or fewer points in four of their last five games, while the Cardinals offense has hit a wall and is without star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Indy’s offense has been pretty productive of late while the Cards defense has struggled, but this is somewhat of an anti-trend play. I just don’t think these teams are breaking into the high 40s.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: 44
I know the Panthers suck, but each of their last five games have contained at least 43 points. The Bucs had scored 30-plus points in four straight before that shocking shutout loss in Week 15, and they should be fired up to push for 40 or more in this spot. It won’t take more than a score or two for Carolina to put this one over the number.
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans: 46
The high-powered Chargers offense has scored 28-plus points in four of the team’s last five games and now that unit is facing one of the worst scoring defenses in football. But Houston still routinely puts up points, including 30 last week on the road. That came against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars, but the Bolts actually have the league’s sixth-worst scoring defense. This one should hit the 50s.
Bet these Week 16 selections after finding the best OVER UNDER lines at FanDuel.
Archived Week 16 NFL OVER UNDER picks article from Dec. 27, 2020
Last week’s record: 29-27-2
MIAMI DOLPHINS AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (47.5)
I wonder how much motivation the Raiders will have considering they’ve essentially been eliminated, they’re going up against the league’s top-rated scoring defense, and even if starting quarterback Derek Carr suits up he’ll be far from 100 percent.
In other words, I could see Las Vegas laying an egg here. And while Miami could run it up against a horrible Raiders defense, the Dolphins averaged just 20.2 points per game the last five weeks. They could exceed that mark by a dozen points in this one still might not go over the total.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (44.5)
The Steelers defense is a shell of its former self right now, and the Colts have scored at least 26 points in six consecutive games. There’s little reason to expect them to fall short of that mark in this one, but Pittsburgh should also be expected to put up a fight in a critical home game as it tries to avoid a four-game losing streak.
Indy pushes 30 points and the Steelers at least reach the mid-20s as this one easily sails over the total.
DENVER BRONCOS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (48.5)
The Chargers are unpredictable in general, but the Denver defense is far better than that 48-19 score against the Buffalo Bills would lead you to believe. That unit should bounce back against a familiar opponent, while Denver has also scored 20 or fewer points in five of its last six games.
Throw in that the Chargers have surrendered 30-plus points just once in their last six outings and this has the look and feel of a 23-20-type of affair.
LOS ANGELES RAMS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (47.5)
This one also seems too high. Big game, both teams could be tight. The Rams have the league’s third-best scoring defense, while Seattle has quietly surrendered just 16.0 points per game the last six weeks (and just 13.0 the last four weeks).
I don’t think the Rams offense is running up the score on the road here and I think that D should be fired up after a rough loss to the New York Jets. This will be a close game with neither team scoring more than about 20 points.