Week 17 NFL Betting Trends

Trend believers need to take these trends with a grain of salt, given the extra week in the NFL season in 2021 – the fact Week 17 of previous years is actually Week 18 this year.

Sound complicated? It’s not. Adding a Week 18 to the NFL schedule means the motivation (or lack thereof) of the final game of the season now moves to Week 18, while Week 17 retains more meaningful motivations with playoff implications.

It doesn’t change the streak that Kansas City has strangely lost 5 straight at Cincinnati or that Pittsburgh has won 19 of their last 20 Monday Night home games. Check out the Week 17 NFL betting trends mined from our trusty football database with stats and info from 1980 to present.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of Dec. 28, watch line moves.

Buffalo @ Cincinnati +1, Total 49.5 | Matchup Stats 

Bengals are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games and 20-3 ATS past 23

Bills are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games against Cincinnati

Bengals are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 conference games

UNDER is 10-2 Cincinnati’s last 12 games played in January

Bills are 4-10 SU in their last 14 games played on a Monday.

Bengals are 4-10 SU in their last 14 games played on a Monday.

Bills are 17-4 SU in their last 21 games as the favorite.

Bengals have covered 8 in a row as underdogs

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Archived NFL Week 17 Betting trends article from Dec. 28, 2021

Miami @ Tennessee -3, Total 41.5 | Matchup Report

Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their 7-game win streak

OVER is 15-6 Miami’s last 21 games played in Week 17.

Kansas City @ Cincinnati +5, Total 49 | Matchup Report

Nine of past 11 meetings played UNDER the total

Bengals are 2-12 SU, 2-11-1 ATS past 14 games in January

Chiefs 18-4 SU past 22 road games

Chiefs have lost 5 straight at Cincy

LA Rams @ Baltimore +3.5, Total 46.5 | Matchup Report

Ravens are 13-1 SU in their last 14 non-conference games

Ravens are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games as the underdog.

UNDER is 10-1 LA Rams’ last 11 games vs the AFC North division.

Rams are 3-11 SU in their last 14 games played in Week 17.

Ravens are 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games at home

Arizona @ Dallas -5.5, Total 51 | Matchup Report

Cowboys are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 conference games

Cowboys are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games played in January.

Cardinals are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games played on a Sunday.

Cardinals are 3-14 SU in their last 17 games at Dallas.

Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road.

Cardinals have covered 5 straight as underdogs

Cowboys are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games

OVER is 13-4 Dallas’ last 17 games at home.

Sunday Night Football Trends

Minnesota @ Green Bay -6.5, Total 47.5 | Matchup Report

Packers are 21-2 SU in their last 23 games at home

OVER is 8-2 Minnesota’s last 10 games on the road.

OVER is 14-6 Minnesota’s last 20 conference games

Packers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 Sunday home games

Monday Night Football Trends

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh +3, Total 41 | Matchup Report

Steelers are 19-1 SU in their last 20 Monday night home games.

Steelers are 17-1 SU in their last 18 games at home against Cleveland.

Browns are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 divisional games

Browns are 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS last 7 Monday night games

Archived Week 17 NFL betting trends article from Dec. 29, 2020

Betting Week 17 NFL games is a balance act of handicapping motivation and determining which teams will rest starters and which coaches are trying to save their asses for next season. All the while contemplating the extent of petty grievances and divisional rivalry intrigue that make some teams play hard even when they have nothing to gain.

Week 17 sees one huge road spread as surging Baltimore lays 11.5 points at Cincinnati and one huge home spread as Indianapolis is motivated to defeat Jacksonville and they lay 14 point.

What follows are trends from our deep database mining exercise, but take them all with a 50-pound grain of salt, because other factors may trump them.

And check out the latest NFL odds as they move during this unpredictable final week of the season and check out bonus specials and hundreds of football betting options at top shops such as Draft Kings and FanDuel sportsbooks.

New York Jets vs New England Patriots -3.5, Total 43 | Matchup Report

This is the second-smallest spread faced by the Jets all season, and they come in on a hot streak. But if you think the Patriots ease up in Week 17, with all their winning seasons, you would think wrong. They are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games played in week 17.

Patriots 11-1 SU in their last 12 games when playing at home against NY Jets

UNDER in 8 of NY Jets’ last 9 games played in week 17

UNDER in 9 of NY Jets’ last 12 games when playing as the underdog.

Pats are 1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing as the favorite.

UNDER in 17 of New England’s last 22 games played on a Sunday when at home.

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions +7, Total 54.5 | Matchup Report

The Vikes have covered six straight vs the Lions and 9 of 12 overall. At Detroit, they are 8-3 ATS in 11 recent trips. But they have stumbled lately.

Vikings are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games

Vikings are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Sunday road games

OVER in 11 of Detroit’s last 14 games at home.

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills -2, Total 44.5 | Matchup Report

The Bills have covered 7 straight spreads and are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games when playing as the favorite. This line may change as Buffalo has little to gain.

Dolphins 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games.

OVER is 9-2 Miami’s last 11 games against Buffalo, including 5 in a row at Buffalo.

Dolphins 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against an opponent in the AFC East division

OVER is 14-6 Miami’s last 20 games played in Week 17

Dolphins are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as the underdog

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals +11.5, Total 44.5 | Matchup Report

The resurgent Ravens have covered five straight and are now 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games on the road. But if you recall the last time Cincy was a double-digit home dog, it was a few weeks ago when they beat the Steelers 27-17.

Ravens 7-1 ATS in their last 8 divisional games

Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games

Bengals are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games played in January.

Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 17.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns -7, Total 42.5 | Matchup Report

The Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 divisional games and have lost 10 straight Week 17 games. The Steelers have positive trends and lopsided UNDER angles.

UNDER is 16-5 Pittsburgh’s last 21 road games.

UNDER is 9-3 past 12 meetings here.

Steelers are 17-4 SU in their last 21 games played in Week 17.

Steelers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games when playing as the underdog.

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants +2.5, Total 44.5 | Matchup Report

The Cowboys have won 7 straight vs the Giants, going 6-1 ATS in the process. The Giants usually lose as underdogs.

Cowboys 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as the favorite

Giants 3-18 SU in their last 21 games as the underdog

Cowboys 14-6 ATS in their last 20 divisional games.

Cowboys 5-18 ATS in their last 23 games played in January.

Giants 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games at home.

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5, Total 50.5 | Matchup Report

The OVER has been a reliable wager when these teams meet (8-1 past nine meetings).

Falcons 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Sunday road games.

OVER is 15-6 Tampa Bay’s last 21 divisional games.

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears +5.5, Total 50.5 | Matchup Report

The Packers have played six straight January OVERs, if you believe in such calendar-specific things. And if it seems like the Bears always lose in Week 17, that’s because they do (9-22 past 31 seasons).

Packers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games against Chicago and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games at Chicago.

UNDER is 14-4 Chicago’s last 18 home games

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans +7.5, Total 56.5 | Matchup Report

Houston doesn’t care, Tennessee must win. That doesn’t always make a safe bet and OVER trends are a lot more prevalent here that spread angles.

OVER is 10-1 Tennessee’s last 11 Sunday road games.

OVER is 19-4 Tennessee’s last 23 Sunday games

OVER is 8-1 Tennessee’s last 9 games at Houston.

Houston is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games at home to Titans.

Texans 1-10 SU, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as the underdog.

LA Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs +3.5, Total 44 | Matchup Report

The Chiefs are home underdogs??? Calm down, KC won’t play any of its starters as they host the Chargers in a meaningless game.

Chargers are 1-12 SU in their last 13 games vs KC

Chiefs 0-6-1 ATS past seven games

Chiefs 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games played in week 17.

Chiefs 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games when playing as the underdog.

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers +6.5, Total 48 | Matchup Report

Put the Saints in the road on Sunday and you have a betting lock – they are 28-6 ATS the past 34 games in this situation. But Carolina has been very tough as an underdog.

Saints 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games

OVER in 11 of New Orleans’ last 13 games against Carolina.

Saints 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games on the road.

Panthers 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games at home

Panthers 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in January.

Panthers 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing as the underdog.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts -14, Total 50 | Matchup Report

The Colts haven’t been favored at home by two TDs since Dec. 14, 2008 in that famous Peyton Manning vs Dan Orlovsky battle. They didn’t cover in that game and they are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games against Jacksonville overall.

Arizona Cardinals vs LA Rams -1, Total 39.5 | Matchup Report

When the Rams are favored, bet UNDER – that theory has won 18 of 22 times but the total is tiny in Week 17.

Cardinals 0-7 SU, 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against LA Rams.

Cardinals 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games played in week 17.

UNDER is 18-4 LA Rams’ last 22 games as the favorite

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers +5.5, Total 46 | Matchup Report

Seattle historically covers against the Niners, but has failed to cover the past five road games.

Seahawks 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games against San Francisco

Seahawks failed to cover five straight on road

UNDER is 8-3 Seattle’s last 11 games as the favorite.

49ers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games played in January.

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos +2.5 Total 50.5 | Matchup Report

The Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against Denver but have lost 9 straight Week 17 games overall. Do they have any fight left in them after their crushing Week 16 loss?

UNDER is 17-5 Denver’s last 22 divisional games

UNDER is 10-1 Denver’s last 11 games against Las Vegas.

UNDER is 14-3 Denver’s last 17 divisional games

OVER is 12-3 of Las Vegas’ last 15 games.

Washington Football Team vs Philadelphia Eagles +1.5, Total 43 | Matchup Report

Washington has all the motivation but the Eagles would love to play spoiler at the end of a spoiled season. Is the UNDER a safer bet?

UNDER is 9-2 Philadelphia’s last 11 games played in January.

UNDER is 11-3 Philadelphia’s last 14 games at home.

Washington is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall

More Week 17 NFL betting trends coming soon