Maybe you’ve already got your picks in for Week 17 of the NFL regular season, but by focusing only on point spreads, moneylines or fantasy, you’re robbing yourself of potential opportunities to make money on over/unders.
Here are a few totals for this week that are worthy of your attention. Here are four picks worth a glance in Week 17, odds as of Tuesday at FanDuel.
Chiefs @ Steelers 44 – Play UNDER
The Chiefs are always UNDER and playing with a hobbled Patrick Mahomes on three days rest is not a recipe for an offensive breakout. Ditto the Steelers, who get George Pickens back but who will have their hands full keeping Russell Wilson upright from the Chiefs pass rush.
This is the third game in 11 days for the Steelers, this game smells like 20-17.
Ravens @ Texans 46.5 – Play OVER
The theory here is that Baltimore races to an early lead and the Texans at home squeeze out offense after the game is basically over. The risk is that injuries on offense leave the Texans with a goose egg like the Saints laid on MNF.
But they have enough weapons to score, especially after the Ravens switch to prevent defense after their big lead. Say about 34-17?
Atlanta @ Washington 47.5 – Play UNDER
There are UNDER trends galore here and both teams should be playing this one tighter with playoff positioning at stake for each. The Falcons are 19-4 UNDER vs NFC East teams and 16-6 in December. Washington is explosive but historically is a late-season UNDER bet (11-3 in Week 17).
We hope this game doesn’t start quickly because this bet could go out on the window quickly. The theory is a cautious start by each side and a 23-20 type of result.
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Archived NFL Week 17 OVER UNDER picks article from Dec, 28, 2023
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (44): Under
The Raiders exploded for 63 two weeks ago, but that was an aberration for a team that has scored 20 or fewer points in every other game it has played since Week 10. Meanwhile, the defense has surrendered just 12.7 points per game the last three weeks, and the Colts have averaged just 14.7 points per game in their last three.
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants (42): Over
Has nobody noticed that the Rams have scored at least 28 points in five consecutive games? That defense also isn’t what it used to be, while the Giants could have some life under Tyrod Taylor at quarterback and that defense is almost always good to give up more than 20. This one should come close to the 50s.
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Commanders (48.5): Over
Three consecutive Washington games have contained at least 48 points, and the pissed-off 49ers should be looking to put up a number in that range all on their own in this rebound spot. It’s worth noting that San Francisco’s usually-stellar defense has also given up 62 points the last two weeks.
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Archived Week 17 NFL OVER UNDER picks article from Dec. 28, 2022
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (41): UNDER
Why is this in the 40s? Both teams have been held to 18 or fewer points in their last three games and both should be run-focused considering their quarterback situations.
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (44): OVER
The Eagles are good for at least 30 practically every week lately, and the Saints are still alive and likely to fight hard here. Remember, Philly also gave up 40 last week and that pass D is vulnerable right now.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (47): OVER
The Packers offense is averaging 28 points per game the last four weeks, while there have been at least 47 points in five consecutive Vikings games. This should sail into the 50s.
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Archived Week 17 NFL OVER UNDER picks article from Dec. 28, 2021
Philadelphia @ Washington UNDER 46
If you simply looked at the score, you would think the 34-10 beating of the Giants in Week 16 proved the Eagles are legit. If you actually watched the game, you know how close the Eagles came to giving away the game and if the Giants had any QB at all, they could have won. All that is to say Jalen Hurts continues to make mistakes and the run game grinds clock.
Add those details to the fact Washington will need to run the ball and also lack firepower and you have all the ingredients for an easy UNDER play here. We expect this number to drop during the week, I would bet it now.
Houston @ San Francisco OVER 44
Houston showed it didn’t really give a crap against the Chargers and they went crazy with 41 points. We doubt they care much more in Week 16 and will let it all hang out again at the Niners. True, SF is questionable with Jimmy G injured, but we see any QB in the league putting up points against the Texans. And if the Texans throw caution to the wind again, this is a game that pushes easily into the 50s.
Minnesota @ Green Bay OVER 47.5
Green Bay probably should have lost their past two games and are allowing almost 30 PPG over the last five matches. Minnesota comes in desperate and with the comfort of putting up 34 points on the Packers a few weeks ago. The Vikes should be desperate and going all out. The Packers can cruise and still be safe. We see this game easily into the 50s as well.
Miami @ Tennessee UNDER 41
This total is low, but not low enough. The Dolphins have somehow won seven in a row but struggled to score 20 points against Covid-ravaged New Orleans. The Titans looked like a bad college team for the first half in Week 16 before somehow rallying to beat the 49ers. Minus Derrick Henry, the Titans have scored 20 twice and 13 points three times over the past five weeks.
This could be 13-10 for one team or the other. Don’t ask who, just play the UNDER 41.
Archived Week 17 NFL OVER UNDER picks analysis from Dec. 29, 2020
Last week’s record: 32-28-2
Week 17 OVER UNDER picks
DALLAS COWBOYS AT NEW YORK GIANTS (45) | Matchup ReportÂ
The Dallas offense has found an unexpected groove late in the year, and we can’t discount the notion that Andy Dalton and Ezekiel Elliott could keep rolling with that trio of talented receivers.
With the Giants defense also coming back to earth of late, the Cowboys could be in for a fourth consecutive 30-plus-point game. And while the Giants offense has struggled mightily, Dallas has surrendered 30.0 points per game so 45 doesn’t seem like a tough number to hit.
This number was 45 early in the week at Sugarhouse sportsbook for Giants bettors in New Jersey.
ATLANTA FALCONS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (50.5) | Matchup ReportÂ
Considering that the Bucs are pretty much locked into their current spot, this total is pushing it. Tampa Bay might not go all out against an Atlanta defense that has generally performed surprisingly well during the second half of the season, and the Falcons have now scored 17 or fewer points in three of their last four games.
They look shot on that side of the ball, which is why this feels like a 27-17-type affair. At best.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (48) | Matchup Report
I think the Saints will realize they’re unlikely to land that first-round bye and opt to take a measured approach in this game. The Panthers also play low-scoring games more often than not, and a talented New Orleans defense might want to make a statement before the playoffs after struggling a bit against the Kansas City Chiefs and Minnesota Vikings.
This one might not hit the 40s.
