Week 17 OVER UNDER picks are usually the last predictions of the year, but this year adds an 18th week, so the same logic and motivation does not apply. But these four games look like safe totals wagers, with line moves expected during the week regardless of Covid roster foul-ups.
Here are four picks worth a glance in Week 17, odds as of Tuesday at FanDuel.
Philadelphia @ Washington UNDER 46
If you simply looked at the score, you would think the 34-10 beating of the Giants in Week 16 proved the Eagles are legit. If you actually watched the game, you know how close the Eagles came to giving away the game and if the Giants had any QB at all, they could have won. All that is to say Jalen Hurts continues to make mistakes and the run game grinds clock.
Add those details to the fact Washington will need to run the ball and also lack firepower and you have all the ingredients for an easy UNDER play here. We expect this number to drop during the week, I would bet it now.
Houston @ San Francisco OVER 44
Houston showed it didn’t really give a crap against the Chargers and they went crazy with 41 points. We doubt they care much more in Week 16 and will let it all hang out again at the Niners. True, SF is questionable with Jimmy G injured, but we see any QB in the league putting up points against the Texans. And if the Texans throw caution to the wind again, this is a game that pushes easily into the 50s.
Minnesota @ Green Bay OVER 47.5
Green Bay probably should have lost their past two games and are allowing almost 30 PPG over the last five matches. Minnesota comes in desperate and with the comfort of putting up 34 points on the Packers a few weeks ago. The Vikes should be desperate and going all out. The Packers can cruise and still be safe. We see this game easily into the 50s as well.
Miami @ Tennessee UNDER 41
This total is low, but not low enough. The Dolphins have somehow won seven in a row but struggled to score 20 points against Covid-ravaged New Orleans. The Titans looked like a bad college team for the first half in Week 16 before somehow rallying to beat the 49ers. Minus Derrick Henry, the Titans have scored 20 twice and 13 points three times over the past five weeks.
This could be 13-10 for one team or the other. Don’t ask who, just play the UNDER 41.
Archived Week 17 NFL OVER UNDER picks analysis from Dec. 29, 2020
Last week’s record: 32-28-2
Week 17 OVER UNDER picks
DALLAS COWBOYS AT NEW YORK GIANTS (45) | Matchup Report
The Dallas offense has found an unexpected groove late in the year, and we can’t discount the notion that Andy Dalton and Ezekiel Elliott could keep rolling with that trio of talented receivers.
With the Giants defense also coming back to earth of late, the Cowboys could be in for a fourth consecutive 30-plus-point game. And while the Giants offense has struggled mightily, Dallas has surrendered 30.0 points per game so 45 doesn’t seem like a tough number to hit.
This number was 45 early in the week at Sugarhouse sportsbook for Giants bettors in New Jersey.
ATLANTA FALCONS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (50.5) | Matchup Report
Considering that the Bucs are pretty much locked into their current spot, this total is pushing it. Tampa Bay might not go all out against an Atlanta defense that has generally performed surprisingly well during the second half of the season, and the Falcons have now scored 17 or fewer points in three of their last four games.
They look shot on that side of the ball, which is why this feels like a 27-17-type affair. At best.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (48) | Matchup Report
I think the Saints will realize they’re unlikely to land that first-round bye and opt to take a measured approach in this game. The Panthers also play low-scoring games more often than not, and a talented New Orleans defense might want to make a statement before the playoffs after struggling a bit against the Kansas City Chiefs and Minnesota Vikings.
This one might not hit the 40s.