Dec 23, 2018; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins defensive end Cameron Wake (91) is being introduced before a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Week 3 NFL Betting Trends: More OVERs?

OVERs continued to hit in Week 2, with 11 of 16 games going OVER, so beware the oddsmaker reaction of opening totals a little bit higher for Week 3. Home teams were 11-5 SU, including the Monday Night upset by the Raiders over the Saints. Overall, underdogs went 9-7 ATS.

Looking ahead to Week 3 NFL betting trends with opening odds courtesy of BetRivers and SugarHouse. See current NFL football betting odds on every game here at NFP.

Thursday Night Football Betting Trends

Miami +2.5 @ Jacksonville Total 47.5

Jacksonville is a bad team, but they are 2-0 ATS. The fact they only get 2.5 points at home against a bad Miami team should give pause to Jaguars bettors.

Jacksonville is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played in September.

UNDER is 6-1 past 7 meetings

Miami is 3-19 SU past 22 road games

Miami is 8-3 ATS past 11 games vs conference foes.

Miami lost 7 straight Sept games, 1-6 ATS

UNDER is 9-2 Miami’s last 11 Thursday night games.

Miami is 10-4 ATS past 14 games as the underdog.

Miami is 0-5 ATS streak in Thursday night road games.

Jags 2-6 ATS past 8 as favorites

Tennessee -2.5 @ Minnesota Total 47.5

Vikes have been home dogs just once per season the past three years, but it will probably happen a few times in 2020. Tennessee is just 9-16-1 ATS as road favorites going back a dozen seasons.

Vikings 5-1 ATS past 6 vs Titans

Vikings 3-9 ATS past  12 games as the underdog.

Vikings 13-4 ATS in 17 games as home dogs since 2012 season

Las Vegas +6.5 @ New England Total 47

New England always wins at home in September but don’t always cover. And the Raiders seldom win on the road. One team comes off a disappointing loss battles a team coming off a huge win.

Las Vegas 5-19 SU past 24 road games.

Raiders 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as the underdog.

Chicago +3.5 @ Atlanta Total 47.5

Atlanta can try to convince themselves they should be 2-0, but reality is they are 0-2. The Bears probably should be 0-2, but they are 2-0. Both teams probably lose their ‘0’ this week.

Chicago is 2-10 ATS past 12 games played on a Sunday.

Chicago are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against Atlanta.

Bears 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

Cincinnati +6.5 @ Philadelphia Total 46.5

The Eagles are 0-2 and teams almost never recover from 0-2 starts to make the playoffs. And for bettors, they face a team they have never covered the spread against since 1980 (0-10 ATS). Historically, all the betting trends work against Philly here, except the recent 2-18 SU in Cincy’s last 20 games.

10-0 ATS vs Philadelphia since 1982

Cincinnati lost 13 straight road games, but are 9-3 ATS in their last 12.

Philadelphia 4-12-1 ATS past 17 home games.

Philadelphia 2-10 ATS past 12 games in September.

San Francisco -4.5 @ NY Giants Total 41

The Giants are terrible at home and terrible as underdogs. So does that make them doubly bad as home underdogs? Niner bettors hope so and they ride a 7-3 ATS streak as a road team, while nursing some major injury woes that dropped them down the Super Bowl futures table. Of course, the Giants have a small injury issue of their own to contend with as Saquon Barkley hits the IR.

Giants 3-20 SU past 23 games as the underdog

San Francisco 7-3 ATS past 10 road games.

San Francisco 1-7 ATS past 8 games played in Week 3.

Giants are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games at home

Giants 1-11 SU and ATS since 2018 as home dogs

Houston +3.5 @ Pittsburgh Total 45

A sloppy defensive show by Pittsburgh keeps this spread low. Most of the Texans-Steelers trends focus on the UNDER.

UNDER is 10-2 in Houston’s past 12 vs AFC North division.

UNDER is 13-5 in Houston’s past 18 September games

UNDER is 17-6 in Pittsburgh’s last 23 conference games.

Washington +7 @ Cleveland Total 44

How often is Cleveland a 7-point home favorite? Twice since 2013. Last year against terrible Miami and in 2018 vs terrible Cincinnati. This week they get terrible Washington. What should a bettor do when there are no positive trends for either team and both are known as loser franchises? 1. Avoid the game. 2. Pick the currently less bad team (Cleveland). 3. Beware back-door covers backing teams that are not accustomed to giving so many points

Wash 5-1 SU past 6 vs Cleveland

LA Rams +2.5 @ Buffalo Total 47.5

Buffalo usually wins (but not always cover) as as favorites (10-1 SU past 11 games). But the Rams have been covering spreads like crazy as a road team. Trust the Bills as home chalk? The OVER is 7-1 past 8 meetings between these teams.

The total has gone OVER in 15 of Buffalo’s last 18 games against an opponent in the NFC West division.

OVER in 7 of LA Rams’ last 8 games against Buffalo

Rams are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the road.

Bills 10-1 SU past 11 games as the favourite

Carolina +7.5 @ LA Chargers Total 44

A lot of negative trends on both sides – the Chargers don’t cover as favorites, the Panthers don’t cover as dogs. You’re on your own with this one.

Chargers 2-10 ATS past 12 games vs NFC South teams

Panthers 1-11 SU and 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games.

Carolina is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against LA Chargers.

Carolina is 0-5-1 ATS past 6 games as the underdog (lost 9 in a row SU)

Chargers 1-5-1 ATS past 7 games as the favorite

Detroit +5.5 @ Arizona Total 54.5

Detroit is at it again, losing outright and failing to cover. Arizona is the better team and this line could swell during the week.

Detroit 2-11 ATS past 13 games overall including 11 straight SU losses.

Dallas +4.5 @ Seattle Total 55

Seattle is historical a great home bet as early-season favorites. Dallas has been a money-maker as an underdog the past few seasons. So those NFL betting trends clash here. There are also trends favoring both the OVER and UNDER. Good luck…

UNDER is 10-1 in Seattle’s past 11 vs NFC East division.

UNDER is 8-3 past 11 meetings of these teams.

OVER is 15-6 in Dallas’ past 21 conference games

Seattle 15-3 SU in past 18 games vs NFC East.

Dallas 8-2 ATS past 10 games as the underdog

Seattle lost just three times as Sept home chalk since 1999 (once last year vs New Orleans)

Seattle 17-5-1 ATS past 23 games Week 3 games.

Tampa Bay -6 @ Denver Total 43.5

Denver is a home dog of 6 points with Drew Lock out. If you wondered how often that happens in Denver, this is the 10th time in 40 years. Tampa is road chalk of 6 points for just the second time since 2008.

Tampa Bay 2-9 ATS past 11 in Week 3, losing 8 straight SU

Denver 8-3 ATS past 11 games as the underdog.

Denver 11-3 SU past 14 games vs NFC South division.

UNDER is 12-4 in Denver’s last 16 games at home.

OVER is 20-6 in Tampa Bay’s last 26 road games

Green Bay +3 @ New Orleans Total 52

Sunday Night Football Betting Trends

Historically, the Saints don’t cover as early-season home favorites, but they snapped that streak in Week 1 against Tampa. The OVER has prevailed 10 of the past 12 times these teams met.

Green Bay 1-5 ATS past 6 games vs New Orleans

New Orleans 9-3 ATS past 12 games played in Week 3.

Saints broke a 6-game ATS losing streak as September home favorites, beating TB in Week 1

Monday Night Football Betting Trends

Kansas City +3.5 @ Baltimore Total 53.5

The top teams in the league, the Super Bowl 55 co-favorites, meet in Week 3 Monday Night with all kinds of positive against the spread trends for both teams. You don’t get a chance to bet the Chiefs as underdogs very often and when you do, the Chiefs usually pay you out (10-2-1 ATS past 13 as underdogs. Of note, the OVER is 10-3 in those games.

Chiefs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games.

Ravens are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games.

Chiefs won 13 straight September games

Chiefs 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games played in Week 3.

Chiefs 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Monday.

Ravens 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games played on a Monday.

Ravens 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites.

 

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.