Gagnon’s Week 3 Picks

After a strong showing with our first two weeks, here are the next 16 kicks at the can, with odds coming from SugarHouse Sportsbook. Check out new matchup reports and comparative odds launched this week here at NFP for further research and if you believe in trends, check out Trend Dummy’s weekly data mining exercise with 10-0 ATS streaks among others.

2020 RECORD: 18-13-1

MIAMI DOLPHINS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-3): DOLPHINS

The Jaguars entered the season as the clear-cut basement-dweller of the NFL, and two surprisingly decent performances shouldn’t entirely obstruct that reality. A bad team is due for a dud and the Dolphins are much more talented on both sides of the ball. I’ll gladly take three points with Miami. 

CHICAGO BEARS AT ATLANTA FALCONS (-3): BEARS

It’s hard to trust the Falcons following their collapse against the Dallas Cowboys, whereas the Chicago defense has looked strong. They should be able to limit a banged-up Julio Jones, and it’s maybe sorta kinda possible Mitchell Trubisky is turning a corner. I’ll take the points. 

CINCINNATI BENGALS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-4.5): BENGALS

Philly’s just a straight-up mess right now, while the Bengals are coming off extra rest. Joe Burrow is making progress and the team in general appears to be on the right track. A weak Eagles linebacker group should have trouble with Burrow and Joe Mixon on the ground as Cincy keeps it close. Trend Dummy noted that Cincy is 10-0 ATS vs the Eagles since 1982 if you believe history repeats itself.

HOUSTON TEXANS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-4): TEXANS

Deshaun Watson is too good to let his team get blown out for a third consecutive week. The Texans will at least battle hard to avoid an 0-3 start, so laying more than a field goal with a banged-up Steelers team is too risky.

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT BUFFALO BILLS (-2.5): BILLS

This is a pretty even matchup but Josh Allen has a hotter hand than Jared Goff. Plus, Allen’s legs and the Buffalo running game have an opportunity to break out against a vulnerable Los Angeles run defense. It’s surprising Buffalo isn’t even laying a field goal at home.

This was a tough call but I don’t feel great about the Raiders coming off such a high on Monday night. They’ve had less time to prepare than Bill Belichick, and Cam Newton presents much more of a challenge than Drew Brees at this point. Pats by a touchdown. 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-4) AT NEW YORK GIANTS: GIANTS

I think we’re underestimating how badly the 49ers have been hit by injuries on both sides of the ball. Can they really take advantage of Saquon Barkley’s absence? I’m not backing a Nick Mullens-led offense with four points working against me.

TENNESSEE TITANS (-2.5) AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS: VIKINGS

Kirk Cousins is likely to bounce back. He always does. And the veteran Vikings are too well-coached to start 0-3. Minnesota’s defense is weak, but Tennessee’s hasn’t performed well either. Taking a chance on the Vikes in a close game. 

WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-7): BROWNS

Cleveland has a strong enough offensive line to handle Washington’s stellar defensive front, and Myles Garrett and Co. could have a field day with a line that will be without standout Brandon Scherff. With extra prep time following a bounce-back victory over the Bengals, the Browns should win this one handily.

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-6.5): CHARGERS

The young Carolina defense is a mess, Justin Herbert looked awesome in his career debut and Carolina won’t have its offensive centerpiece, Christian McCaffrey. Why in the world are the Bolts laying less than a touchdown after taking the Kansas City Chiefs to overtime?

NEW YORK JETS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-11.5): COLTS

There’s absolutely nothing the Jets do well right now, while the Colts looked strong on both sides of the ball in a bounce-back Week 2 performance. The backdoor cover is always a possibility here, but an Indy blowout is likely.

DALLAS COWBOYS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-5): COWBOYS

Seattle barely beat the Patriots but is now laying a full five points against a Cowboys team riding a high? Dak Prescott is rolling and should have a chance to exploit a pass defense that lost Bruce Irvin and Marquise Blair to injury in Week 2. This is a field-goal game. 

DETROIT LIONS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (-5.5): CARDINALS

The Lions have been gutted on both sides of the ball, while the remarkably healthy Cardinals are on fire. Their defense is underrated, while Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins should have fun with a toothless Detroit D. The Cards should win by double digits.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-6) AT DENVER BRONCOS: BUCCANEERS

The Lions have been crushed by injuries, the Bucs are extremely healthy and Tampa Bay’s stacked defensive front should control this game. No way I’m taking a Jeff Driskel-run offense to stay within a touchdown here.

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3): SAINTS

Huh? The Saints are a disaster right now as it looks like Drew Brees is running out of gas. Meanwhile, the healthier and hotter Packers look inspired and balanced. With no home-field advantage in the empty Superdome, I’ll gladly take the Packers with three points on my side.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3.5): CHIEFS

Patrick Mahomes has covered or pushed in all six of his games as an underdog, and now he’s getting a field goal plus a hook with home-field hardly a factor in Baltimore? That’s weird. This should be a pick’em.