We’ll be here to guide you with weekly picks against the spread on key games throughout the 2022 regular season. Here are a handful for Week 3.
Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins (-6.5): Broncos
I saw some cracks in the Dolphins Sunday night, and I do feel the Broncos have too much experience and talent to fall to 0-3 without a strong fight. This could be an outright upset, but I’ll at least take the points while considering buying up to Denver +7.
Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings (-1): Chargers
What this really comes down to is the fact Los Angeles is a far better team than Minnesota in almost every way. Sure, they’re on the road. But it’s still silly they’re getting even a point from a Vikings team that played above its head last year and is back on earth this season. The Chargers could easily be 2-0 instead of 0-2, and the football gods will likely straighten things out in this situation.
New England Patriots (-2.5) at New York Jets: Patriots
Bill Belichick is too good at what he does to drop this one, so I’m all over the sub-field goal spread against a mess of a Jets team. New England could also easily be 2-0 instead of 0-2 despite a damn tough schedule so far, and this should be an adjustment game against sad Zach Wilson.
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Archived Week 3 NFL picks article from Sept. 2022
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers: Saints
Even on the road, this is great value for the much better team. The New Orleans pass rush is destined to explode against a bad team, and you’re basically in pick’em range under three points. This is a no-brainer.
Buffalo Bills (-6) at Miami Dolphins: Dolphins
The Bills might be the best team in football, but are they really nine points better than a 2-0 Miami squad coming off an awesome victory over a quality opponent? I think not. Buffalo probably moves to 3-0 but this is too many points. The Dolphins will put up a fight at home.
Cincinnati Bengals (-5) at New York Jets: Bengals
This is a must-dominate for a highly talented Cincinnati team, and the Jets have actually played above their heads. Five points can be a little tricky but I’m on the Bengals with anything less than a touchdown on the line.
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals: Cardinals
I’m going anti-trend here. Sean McVay has owned Kliff Kingsbury but eventually the law of averages should kick in and the Cards have the talent and momentum to hang at home. I’ll take advantage of that hook, which feels like a Vegas trap.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-1): Cowboys
The Cowboys might be a mess, but I’m not betting on Daniel Jones and the Giants going 3-0. It’s almost that simple, but it helps that Cooper Rush has been a pleasant surprise in place of the injured Dak Present at quarterback for Dallas. The better team prevails here.
Archived Week 3 Picks article from Sept. 26, 2021
Week 2 is in the books, a lot of bettors absorbed losses in Week 2, but the NFL is always there to provide comfort a week later.
We start with a Thursday Night dog play and end up with a Monday Night dog play. And all sorts of goodness in between. Let’s get to it.
(Odds as of midweek at FanDuel Sportsbook, visit them for the latest lines and super bonus specials and new customer perks).
2021 RECORD: 17-15
CAROLINA PANTHERS (-8) AT HOUSTON TEXANS: TEXANS
I’m not laying more than a touchdown with a Sam Darnold-quarterbacked team on the road on three days’ rest. The Texans suck, but they showed in Week 1 at home that they have some fight in them, and that should be the case regardless of who is under center here.
CHICAGO BEARS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-7): BEARS
The Browns are really banged up on the offensive side of the ball and the Bears should be better off with Justin Fields at quarterback than they were with veteran journeyman backup Andy Dalton. Chicago hangs here.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-9) AT DETROIT LIONS: LIONS
Detroit has played with fire this season, while the depleted Ravens might have reality catch up with them after an emotional Sunday night win over the Chiefs. They’ll still win this one, but I’m not willing to lay nearly 10 points with such a banged-up team on the road.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (-7) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: CARDINALS
Why in the world are the Jaguars getting just seven points here? The Cardinals offense has been phenomenal and Jacksonville has lost by double-digit margins in back-to-back weeks. The backdoor cover is always a possibility, but this is likely to be a blowout.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-6.5): CHIEFS
Patrick Mahomes will be fired up to make a statement at home against a division rival after a tough loss to the Ravens, and L.A. has quite a few injuries to deal with after a rough home loss to the Dallas Cowboys. Chiefs win by double digits here.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-3): PATRIOTS
The Saints aren’t close to as good as they looked Week 1 and the Patriots are far better than they looked in Week 1. We saw the direction both teams are headed last week. No way the Patriots start the season 0-2 at home, and you still get a push if this is a field-goal game.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT TENNESSEE TITANS (-5): COLTS
The Colts have won three consecutive games straight-up in Tennessee, and Ryan Tannehill is looking like a potential problem for the Titans. Carson Wentz’s health situation isn’t ideal for Indy, but the Colts have the defensive personnel to hold Derrick Henry in check and make this at least a close game. They’re too talented and too desperate to fall to 0-3 without a fight.
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM AT BUFFALO BILLS (-7.5): WASHINGTON
Why is Washington getting more than a touchdown? This is one of the best defenses in the league and Josh Allen has legitimately been one of the worst quarterbacks in football early this season. Allen could bounce back, but the WFT defense has tons of room to improve as well. Buffalo wins a close one.
ATLANTA FALCONS AT NEW YORK GIANTS (-3): GIANTS
It’s hard to lay three points with the Giants, but Daniel Jones has been pretty solid with his arm and legs this season and they should be feisty at home against a team that looks as though it is phoning in the 2021 campaign. I can’t justify backing the dud Falcons with only three points in their back pocket on the road.
CINCINNATI BENGALS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3.5): BENGALS
Pittsburgh’s banged up on both sides of the ball, and the new and improved Bengals have a chance to make a statement here. Joe Burrow rarely loses by large margins, and this feels like another field-goal game.
NEW YORK JETS AT DENVER BRONCOS (-10): BRONCOS
It’s scary laying double digits with Teddy Bridgewater, especially considering that the Broncos won’t have Bradley Chubb. But Zach Wilson is a mess with no support right now, and the Jets are on the road. If the Pats can take them down by three scores in New York, Denver should be able to win this one by a pair of touchdowns minimum.
MIAMI DOLPHINS AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-4): DOLPHINS
Brian Flores is too good a coach to let his team lie down after a blowout loss, and Jon Gruden’s Raiders are too untrustworthy to lay more than a field goal with when a 3-0 start is on the line. You just know they’re going to screw this up.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-1.5) AT LOS ANGELES RAMS: BUCCANEERS
The Bucs have won 10 straight games by an average margin of more than 15 points. They’re significantly better than the Rams, even if this line doesn’t indicate that. I can’t believe they’re not laying at least a full field goal.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-1.5) AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS: SEAHAWKS
Russell Wilson is 7-0 in his career against the Vikings, and this is a particularly tough spot for Minnesota because Wilson and the Seahawks are coming off a home loss. They’ll rebound by crushing a mentally weak opponent.
GREEN BAY PACKERS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-3): PACKERS
Aaron Rodgers has lost five of his last six games in the Pacific time zone, but I think he’ll be inspired to send a message in this one. The 49ers have once again been hit hard by injuries. I’m surprised they’re favored considering how poorly they played in back-to-back uninspiring road victories over inferior teams to start the season.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT DALLAS COWBOYS (-3.5): EAGLES
I’d rather not pick an NFC East game in prime time, especially one with so many injury questions. That said, I’m not touching that hook considering how well Jalen Hurts is playing for a Philly team that still has Dallas beat in the trenches…
Archived Week 3 NFL Picks article by Gagnon from Sept. 28, 2020
After a strong showing with our first two weeks, here are the next 16 kicks at the can, with odds coming from Draft Kings Sportsbook. Check out new matchup reports and comparative odds launched this week here at NFP for further research and if you believe in trends, check out Trend Dummy’s weekly data mining exercise with 10-0 ATS streaks among others.
2020 RECORD: 18-13-1
MIAMI DOLPHINS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-3): DOLPHINS
The Jaguars entered the season as the clear-cut basement-dweller of the NFL, and two surprisingly decent performances shouldn’t entirely obstruct that reality. A bad team is due for a dud and the Dolphins are much more talented on both sides of the ball. I’ll gladly take three points with Miami.Â
CHICAGO BEARS AT ATLANTA FALCONS (-3): BEARS
It’s hard to trust the Falcons following their collapse against the Dallas Cowboys, whereas the Chicago defense has looked strong. They should be able to limit a banged-up Julio Jones, and it’s maybe sorta kinda possible Mitchell Trubisky is turning a corner. I’ll take the points.Â
CINCINNATI BENGALS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-4.5): BENGALS
Philly’s just a straight-up mess right now, while the Bengals are coming off extra rest. Joe Burrow is making progress and the team in general appears to be on the right track. A weak Eagles linebacker group should have trouble with Burrow and Joe Mixon on the ground as Cincy keeps it close. Trend Dummy noted that Cincy is 10-0 ATS vs the Eagles since 1982 if you believe history repeats itself.
HOUSTON TEXANS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-4): TEXANS
Deshaun Watson is too good to let his team get blown out for a third consecutive week. The Texans will at least battle hard to avoid an 0-3 start, so laying more than a field goal with a banged-up Steelers team is too risky.
LOS ANGELES RAMS AT BUFFALO BILLS (-2.5): BILLS
This is a pretty even matchup but Josh Allen has a hotter hand than Jared Goff. Plus, Allen’s legs and the Buffalo running game have an opportunity to break out against a vulnerable Los Angeles run defense. It’s surprising Buffalo isn’t even laying a field goal at home.
