Week 4 trends – Bills dominate Dolphins

Green Bay is almost never a home dog and Detroit is almost never a road favorite, but both are happening Thursday night as we explore Week 4 NFL betting trends.

The Packers come off a big rally in Week 3 and catch points at home for just the fifth time in six seasons. They have covered the last four times. Detroit meanwhile has covered the spread in 10 straight divisional games.

Meanwhile the Game of the Week is Miami @ Buffalo, where the Dolphins are underdogs a week after scoring 70 (it could have been 90) against Denver. Miami has failed to cover in eight straight Week 4 games, for whatever reason but have 6 straight gams overall.

The Saints almost always win in October (20-4 SU) while the Buccaneers almost never cover in October (5-20-1 ATS), as they meet. And the Giants host the Week 4 Monday Nighter having lost seven straight MNF games SU. Seattle is in town as small road underdogs. Get all the Week 4 NFL betting trends here and watch for awesome bonus specials at Draft Kings.

Detroit @ Green Bay +1.5, Total 45.5 | Matchup Report

Lions are road favorites for just 7^th time in six seasons while its just the 5^th time in six seasons Green Bay is a home dog (they covered the previous four)

Packers are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games played in Week 4.

Packers are 28-4 SU in their last 32 games when playing at home against Detroit.

Lions have covered 10 straight divisional games and 15-6 ATS past 21

Lions are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games.

Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.

Packers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games played in September.

Lions have lost 5 straight and 1-7 SU in their last 8 games played in Week 4.

Lions are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games played on a Thursday, but 4-1 ATS past 5

Miami @ Buffalo -2.5, Total 53.5 | Matchup Report

Bills are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games at home against Miami.

Bills are 13-2 SU in their last 15 games at home.

Dolphins are 1-12 SU in their last 13 games played in Week 4, failed to cover past 8 seasons

Dolphins have covered 6 straight games

Dolphins are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 divisional games

Dolphins are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games played in October.

Dolphins have played OVER 5 straight games as underdogs

Bills are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games, but 1-4 ATS

UNDER is 9-1 Buffalo’s last 10 games played in Week 4

New England @ Dallas -7, Total 43 | Matchup Report

Patriots are 1-12 SU, 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as the underdog.

Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games.

Cowboys come off a humiliating loss to Arizona

Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games at home, played 6 straight home OVERs

UNDER is 8-2 past 10 meetings

Kansas City @ New York Jets +9.5, Total 42.5 | Matchup Report

UNDER is 10-2 NY Jets’ last 12 conference games

UNDER is 15-6 NY Jets’ last 21 games.

UNDER is 8-3 NY Jets’ last 11 games as the underdog.

Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against NY Jets but just 1-5 SU past 6 visits here

Chiefs are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games on the road.

Chiefs won 7 straight conference games SU, but 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games

Jets played OVER in 6 straight Week 4 games

Monday Night Football Trends

Seattle @ New York Giants -1.5, Total 47 | Matchup Report

Giants lost 7 straight MNF games SU, 2-10 SU in their last 12 Monday games

UNDER is 19-4 Seattle’s last 23 games vs NFC East teams.

Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against NY Giants.

Seahawks won 9 straight Week 4 games SU

Seahawks are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games played on a Monday.

UNDER is 14-6 NY Giants’ last 20 games at home.

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Archived Week 4 NFL betting trends article from Sept. 27, 2022

The calendar has flipped to October which means the Saints won’t lose, its Week 4 so Miami won’t win and the Patriots are double-digit dogs for just the second time since 2001.

What kind of Week 4 betting trends await bettors now that the first sporadic weeks of the season are behind us? Are the Jaguars pretenders or contenders as they catch 6.5 points in Philly?

Check out the trends for Week 4, watch our updated NFL odds and visit FanDuel and Draft Kings for super bonus offers for new players.

Thursday Night Trends

Miami @ Cincinnati -3.5, Total 47 | Matchup Stats

UNDER is 10-2 Cincinnati’s last 12 games.

Bengals are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference games

Dolphins are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games (10-2 ATS)

Dolphins are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games played in Week 4.

Dolphins are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against Cincinnati.

Past 5 meetings here played UNDER

Dolphins lost 7 straight Week 4 games and 5-17 ATS past 22 games.

Dolphins UNDER in 11-2 Miami’s last 13 games played on a Thursday.

Dolphins are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games as the underdog.

Minnesota vs New Orleans @ London +2.5, Total 43.5 | Matchup Stats

Saints are 18-1 SU past 19 games in October and 23-6 ATS past 29 in October

Vikings have won 5 straight (4-1 ATS) past 5 as favorite

Saints are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games vs NFC North division

Saints are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played in Week 4.

Saints 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as the underdog.

Buffalo @ Baltimore +3.5, Total 52 | Matchup Stats

Ravens are 7-1 ATS since 2015 as home dogs

Ravens are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games as the underdog.

UNDER is 8-2 past 10 meetings

Bills have lost 5 straight at Baltimore

Bills are 12-4 SU past 16 games as road favorites (lost last week in Miami)

Jacksonville @ Philadelphia -6.5, Total; 48.5 | Matchup Stats

Eagles are 10-2 SU in their last 12 vs AFC South division.

OVER is 9-2 Philadelphia’s last 11 vs AFC South division.

Jaguars are 0-17 SU in their last 17 non-conference games

Jaguars are 1-18 SU in their last 19 road games

Eagles are 2-8-1 SU, 3-9 ATS past 12 non-conference games

Eagles won 7 straight as favorites

New England @ Green Bay -10.5, Total 39.5 | Matchup Stats

Patriots are 16-2 SU in their last 18 games vs NFC North

Patriots are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games.

Packers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games at home.

Packers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games played in October.

Packers have covered four straight as double-digit home faves

Patriots are double-digit dogs for just the second time since 2001

Sunday Night Football Trends

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay +2.5, Total 45 | Matchup Stats

Chiefs are 13-1 SU in their last 14 non-conference games

Tampa is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games played in Week 4.

Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against Tampa Bay.

Chiefs are 20-6 SU in their last 26 road games

OVER is 9-3 past 12 KC games as road chalk

Bucs have covered 5 straight at home to KC

Bucs have covered 5 straight as underdogs

Monday Night Football Trends

LA Rams @ San Francisco -2.5, Total 42.5 | Matchup Stats

UNDER is 10-1 San Francisco’s last 11 games.

49ers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against LA Rams.

Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a Monday.

OVER is 16-6 LA Rams’ last 22 games as the underdog.

49ers have lost 6 straight Week 4 games – why? No idea.

49ers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games played on a Monday.

Week 4 NFL betting trends archived article from Sept. 27, 2021

New Orleans never seems to lose in October and the Jaguars never seem to win, period. And the  0-3 Giants almost always cover on the road.

Check out more Week 4 NFL betting trends in 2021.

Thursday Night Football

Jacksonville @ Cincinnati -7.5, Total 45.5 | Matchup Report

First time since 2017 Cincy is a home fave of 7 or more points.

Jaguars have lost 18 straight games

Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games at home

Bengals are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games played in week 4.

Bengals have played OVER the past 6 games as favorites

Detroit @ Chicago -3, Total 42.5 | Matchup Report

Lions are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played in week 4.

Lions 1-12 SU in their last 13 divisional games

UNDER is 15-5 Chicago’s last 20 home games.

Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 divisional games

Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games when playing as the favorite.

NY Giants @ New Orleans -7.5, Total 43.5 | Matchup Report

Giants are 1-12 SU in their last 13 games played in October.

Saints are 22-2 SU in past 24 October games, including 15 in a row (21-4 ATS past 25)

UNDER is 9-1 NY Giants’ last 10 games.

Giants are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against New Orleans

Giants are 19-5 ATS in their last 24 games on the road.

Giants are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 conference games

Saints are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games.

UNDER is 9-2 New Orleans’ last 11 conference games

Saints are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games played in week 4.

Cleveland @ Minnesota +2, Total 52.5 | Matchup Report

Vikings are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games played in October.

Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.

Browns are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games played in October.

Browns are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games played in week 4.

Browns are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games when playing as the favorite

OVER is 8-2 Minnesota’s last 10 games at home.

Vikings are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games played in October.

Vikings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when playing as the underdog

Carolina @ Dallas -4.5, Total 50.5 | Matchup Report

Panthers have covered 8 straight on the road

Panthers covered 7 straight as road underdogs

Cowboys 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games played in Week 4.

Panthers 8-2 ATS past 10 Week 4 games

OVER is 9-2 Dallas’ last 11 games at home.

Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when playing as the underdog

OVER is 21-8 past 29 Dallas conference games

Cowboys are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as the favorite.

Baltimore @ Denver -1, Total 45 | Matchup Report

Broncos are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games at home against Baltimore.

Ravens are 12-1 SU in their last 13 Sunday road games

Ravens are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when playing as the underdog.

Broncos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played in October.

Broncos won 6 straight as favorite, 5-1 ATS

Houston @ Buffalo -17, Total 47 | Matchup Report

OVER is 7-1 past 8 games as double-digit favorites

Bills are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games.

Texans are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games played in week 4.

Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when playing as the underdog.

Biggest dog spread for Houston since Nov. 13 2005 at Colts

UNDER is 7-1 Buffalo’s last 8 games played in Week 4

Tennessee at NY Jets +6.5, Total 44.5 | Matchup Report

OVER is 12-1 Tennessee’s last 13 Sunday road games.

OVER is 11-1 Tennessee’s last 12 games played in Week 4 (18-4 past 22 seasons).

OVER is 12-4 Tennessee’s last 16 road games.

Titans are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against NY Jets.

Kansas City @ Philadelphia +6.5, Total 54.5 | Matchup Report

Chiefs are 1-12-1 ATS in their last 14 games.

UNDER is 13-3 Philadelphia’s last 16 games at home.

Pittsburgh @ Green Bay -6.5, Total 45.5 | Matchup Report

Steelers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games when playing as the underdog

Steelers are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games played in October.

Packers are 15-2 SU in their last 17 games at home

Monday Night Football Trends

Las Vegas @ LA Chargers -3, Total 51.5 | Matchup Report

OVER is 12-2 LA Chargers’ last 14 games played in Week 4.

UNDER is 26-8 last 34 meetings at Chargers

Las Vegas 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Monday Night games.

OVER is 9-2 Las Vegas’ last 11 conference games

OVER is 15-4 Las Vegas’ last 19 games.

Chargers 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games at LA Chargers

Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games

Raiders are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games played in Week 4.

Raiders 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing as the underdog.

UNDER is 15-6 LA Chargers’ last 21 home games.

Chargers have lost 6 straight MNF games SU

More Week 4 NFL betting trends soon…

Archived Week 4 NFL Betting Trends article from Sept. 29, 2020

The San Francisco 49ers ride an ATS death streak into their Week 4 home game against the deathly Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Giants bring a super-profitable road trend to their super-terrible season.

Throw in Week 4 NFL betting trends in the Pittsburgh-Tennessee matchup (OVER streaks galore), a blistering ATS streak by the Saints in October (20-2 ATS) and you have some serious handicapping data to digest this week.

Let’s get started with the Thursday Night Football trends between the Broncos and Jets. Get all the latest NFL odds and our new matchup reports on every game this week.

Denver -3 at NY Jets Total 40

Bettors who prefer trends that cut both ways will consider fading the Broncos here. Denver is 0-3 their past three times a road favorites, while the Jets were home dogs of 1-3.5 points three times and won outright each time. If you can stomach trusting the Jets as small home dogs, here is a great way to start the week.

Denver is 6-21 SU in their last 27 games on the road

OVER is 6-1 Denver’s last 7 visits to NY Jets.

UNDER is 17-5 Denver’s last 22 conference games

Denver is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played on a Thursday.

The Bears have been good or lucky so far, but they are just 4-11 ATS in their past 15 games. But check them out as home underdogs since 2016 – 11-3-1 ATS.

UNDER is 10-2 Chicago’s last 12 home games

Colts have lost 6 straight and 8 of 11 on the road

OVER is 10-2 Indianapolis’ last 12 games played in Week 4.

Colts just 2-6 ATS past 8 as road favorites

Chicago are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games

Pittsburgh -1.5 at Tennessee Total 47

Editor Alert: Several Titans staff tested positive for Covid-19 so this game is tentatively moved to Monday or Tuesday. If you wondered if any NFL game had ever been played on a Tuesday, the Dec. 28, 2010 game between the Eagles and Vikings is the only time. And if you are looking for a single-game ‘trend,’ the Eagles were home favorites of 14 points and lost outright 24-14, with a non-QB running the show for Minnesota (Joe Webb).

This is another spot where so many trends point to the OVER that you feel you should bet UNDER to avoid the set-up. Only Pittsburgh sturdy 20-5 UNDER angle in road games points that direction for totals bettors. On the spread, Tennessee has been good or lucky and we’ll figure out which it is on Sunday.

OVER is 12-1 Tennessee’s last 13 games played on a Sunday.

OVER is 11-1 Tennessee’s last 12 games played in Week 4 (18-4 going back 22 seasons)

OVER is 10-3 Tennessee’s last 13 home games.

UNDER is 20-5 Pittsburgh’s last 25 road games.

Pittsburgh is 12-2 SU past 14 vs AFC South teams.

OVER is 10-4 past 14 Pittsburgh vs Tennessee meetings

Pittsburgh is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games played in October.

LA Chargers +7.5 @ Tampa Bay Total 4

Just the 5^th time since 2010 that Bucs are favored by at least a TD at home. And Tampa bettors hope Tom Brady can reverse this ugly October trend – 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games played in October and lost 19 of 24 overall.

LA Chargers are 2-11 ATS past 13 vs NFC South teams.

LA Chargers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at Tampa Bay

OVER is 15-6 Tampa Bay’s last 21 games.

Cleveland +4.5 at Dallas Total 56

Hey, it’s a positive ATS trend for Cleveland! They are 10-4 ATS in Week 4 games vs a Cowboys teams that is 2-9 ATS in Week 4 lately. Of course, there are a bunch of negative Cleveland trends too but Browns backers are hoping for a third straight win here. If you are betting Cleveland on the moneyline, you are predicting a road win for the Browns, something they have failed to achieve 34 of the last 38 tries.

Cleveland is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games played in Week 4.

Dallas is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games played in Week 4.

Cleveland is 1-18 SU past 19 games played in October.

Cleveland is 4-34 SU past 38 road games.

Cleveland is 0-7 ATS past 7 road games.

Minnesota +3.5 at Houston Total 54.5

A pair of 0-3 teams makes for dangerous handicapping. Houston usually wins as a favorite (15-4 SU past 19) and they usually cover in Week 4 (14-4 ATS past 18 seasons).

Minnesota is all over the place, choking on 2-11 SU run in 13 games as the underdog but rewarding bettors with an 11-1 SU, 8-2-1 ATS run when the calendar flips to October.

OVER is 18-6 Houston’s last 24 games in October.

New Orleans -4 at Detroit Total 54

October has been like Christmas for New Orleans Saints bettors over the past two decades. If you bet the Saints to cover every October game since 2015, you would have won 20 of 22 bets! Yup, 20-2 ATS. They are also dynamite as a road team and have been awesome in Week 4 as well (12-2 ATS).

Detroit is 1-12 SU past 13 games as the underdog.

Detroit is 1-11 SU in their last 12 games.

New Orleans won 12 straight October games, and 20-2 ATS in their last 22 games

New Orleans is 7-1 ATS past 8 road games, 25-9-1 ATS going back 35 games.

New Orleans is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games played in week 4.

New Orleans is 11-4 ATS as road chalk since 2016 season

Detroit is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 Week 4 games

Philadelphia +6.5 at San Francisco Total 45

Finally, the Eagles get a few favorable trends. Now can they actually win a game and cover a spread? Since 2013, the 49ers have been regular-season home favorites of 6 or more points 13 times. They have never covered a spread (0-12-1 ATS). Mix in Philly’s 7-1 ATS streak against San Francisco, including 5 straight in SF, and this must be an Eagle cover?

Philadelphia is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games.

Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games at San Francisco.

OVER is 7-1 Philadelphia’s last 8 games on the road.

Philadelphia covered five straight visits to San Francisco.

49ers 0-12-1 ATS since 2013 as home chalk of 6 or more (3-18-1 ATS since Oct 2012)

Do you trust Arizona as road favorites after losing a game they should have won in Week 3? This is the first time the Cardinals have been road favorites since November 2017. Carolina has a bunch of negative trends, but buyer beware on the Cards.

Carolina is 1-10 SU past 11 games.

OVER is 12-2 Arizona’s past 14 vs NFC South teams.

Arizona is 3-11 SU past 14 games against Carolina.

Arizona is 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.

OVER is 15-6 Carolina’s last 21 games at home.

Carolina lost 9 straight (1-7-1 ATS) conference games

Carolina is 7-2 ATS past 9 games played in Week 4.

Carolina lost 6 straight as home dogs

Baltimore -14 at Washington Total 50.5

This is the biggest home dog number of the year so far and just the 8^th time since 1980 that Baltimore is double-digit road favorites. Its just the sixth time since 1980 that Washington is a double-digit home dogs (twice last season). The Ravens dominate spreads on the road.

Baltimore is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games.

Baltimore covered 6 straight road games, 15-4-2 ATS past 21 road games.

Baltimore 7-0 SU, 6-0-1 ATS past 7 as road chalk

Seattle -6.5 at Miami Total 54.5

Not much to see here. Miami holds ATS edges against the Seahawks and they have played five straight OVERs when home dog, so maybe the total is the play.

Seattle is 1-6 ATS past 7 vs Miami.

Seattle 9-1 SU past 10 as road chalk

Miami is 5-1 ATS past 6 home games.

Miami is 3-12 ATS past 15 games played in Week 4.

Jacksonville +3 at Cincinnati Total 48

Cincinnati as home chalk (1-5 ATS) hasn’t been any more successful than playing as dogs. The Jaguars for some reason feast on AFC Northteams.

Cincinnati is 3-20 SU past 23 conference games.

Jacksonville is 10-0-2 ATS past 12 vs AFC North division.

Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS past 6 games as the favorite.

NY Giants +13 at LA Rams Total 47

This is just the fourth time since 2004 that the New York Giants are double-digit underdogs. And despite all the losing in recent years, they have been awesome as a road team (13-3 ATS past 16) and own an 8-1 ATS run against the LA Rams.

NY Giants are 4-18 SU past 22 games.

LA Rams are 14-3-1 ATS past 18 conference games.

NY Giants are 0-11 SU past 11 games as the underdog (3-21 SU past 24 times)

NY Giants are 1-11 SU past 12 games played in October.

NY Giants are 8-1 ATS past 9 games against LA Rams.

NY Giants are 13-3 ATS past 16 road games.

NY Giants are 10-4 ATS past 14 games played in Week 4 (but lost 9 straight SU)

Just the 4^th time since 2004 the Giants are DD road dogs

Rams 5-1 ATS since 2013 as double-digit home chalk

Buffalo -2.5 at Las Vegas Total 52.5

The Raiders always beat the Bills at home (11-1 SU past 12 meetings) and dominate as home underdogs (7-2 ATS past 9). Do you trust the Bills as road favorites after last week’s near collapse?

Las Vegas is 11-1 SU past 12 games at home against Buffalo.

The total has gone OVER in 14 of Las Vegas’ last 17 games against Buffalo.

Buffalo is 11-1 SU past 12 games as the favorite.

UNDER is 16-6 Buffalo’s last 22 games on the road.

Raiders 7-2 ATS past 9 as home dogs

Las Vegas is 3-8 ATS past 11 games played in October.

New England +7 at Kansas City Total 53.5

New England is a TD underdog for the first ‘real’ time in more than a decade this week. We say ‘real’ because they were +7.5 at Arizona to start the 2016 season after DeflateGate when Tom Brady was suspended. And in a nothing Week 17 game at Houston in 2010. Its just the second time since 2014 that New England is a road dog twice in the same season. Of course, they have dominated the spread in this situation over the years.

Patriots have covered six straight as dogs of 7 or more and are 11-2 ATS dating to 1999 in this position.

New England won 12 straight Oct games and 25-2 SU in their last 27 games in October (20-6-1 ATS).

Chiefs have won 12 straight SU

OVER is 5-1 New England’s last 6 vs Kansas City.

New England is 17-6 ATS past 23 games as the underdog.

KC covered 8 in a row at home and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games at home.

Kansas City is 26-10 ATS past 36 games vs AFC teams.

Kansas City is 10-2 ATS past 12 games as the favorite.

Monday Night Football Trends

Atlanta +7 at Green Bay Total 58

A comfortable 3-0 team vs a crazed 0-3 team that choked bad two weeks in a row. That motivation and desperation probably trumps any trend consideration you can find. And there is plenty to sift through here, plenty of supportive trends for both sides, right down to winning streaks for both teams on Monday Night.

Green Bay is 10-1 SU past 11 games as the favorite.

Green Bay is12-2 SU past 14 games vs NFC foes

Atlanta is 2-11 ATS past 13 games played in October.

Atlanta is 2-9 ATS past 11 games played in Week 4.

OVER is 11-4 Atlanta’s last 15 games against Green Bay.

Atlanta is 5-0 ATS past 5 road games

Atlanta is 6-1 ATS past 7 games at Green Bay.

Atlanta won 5 straight MNFs

Atlanta is 6-1 ATS past 7 games as the underdog.

Green Bay has won 7 straight at home.

Green Bay is 6-1 SU past 7 Monday Night games.