Week 4 OVER UNDER picks arm bettors with information on betting NFL totals, instead of focusing only on point spreads, moneylines or fantasy. There are plenty of potential opportunities to make money on over/unders and we have identified four early games (odds courtesy of Draft Kings Sportsbook) that are worthy of your attention.
Here are several totals for this week that are worthy of your attention.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (54): Under
Two of three Bills games have actually hit the under this year and that defense is on another level compared to what Miami has seen this season. I’m expecting a big correction here from the Dolphins after a crazy Week 3 performance. This number is simply inflated.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (40.5): Over
Why is this so low? The lowest point total for these teams in six combined games this season is 19, and both are averaging 24 points per outing. Yes, both defenses are good, but we’re still talking about Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (48.5): Over
Looking for a correction here. The Raiders have far too much talent on offense not to break out with a decent performance, and this spot makes some sense because the familiar Chargers have surrendered nearly 30 points per game. Meanwhile, L.A. has the league’s fifth-highest-scoring offensive unit. This should soar into the 50s.
Archived Week 4 OVER UNDER picks article from Sept. 30, 2022
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (51): OVER
Unders have been dominating thus far this year but this still feels way too low. We’re talking about two Super Bowl contenders led by two of the best quarterbacks in the league, and Buffalo should be due to bounce back from an off week after scoring 72 points in the first two weeks of the season.
Baltimore, meanwhile, has put up 75 the last two weeks. These two should combine for 60-ish at least on Sunday.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (46): UNDER
These two teams have given up 25 total points combined the last two weeks. That’s an average of 6.3 points allowed per game. I’m not suggesting they’ll combine for only 12 points Sunday, but it’s really hard to imagine them putting up 47 together.
Both offenses are perfectly capable, but I really can’t believe this one is even in the 40s.
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans (44): UNDER
Not a single Texans game this season has contained 44 points, and I doubt that’ll happen when they host a badly banged up Chargers squad for an early start Sunday. The Bolts put up just 10 points last week at home against a so-so Jaguars team, and Justin Herbert is hurt behind an offensive line that is in bad shape.
Yeah, this looks and feels like a 17-14 affair.
Week 4 OVER UNDER picks article from Sept. 28, 2021
2021 RECORD: 7-9
TENNESSEE TITANS AT NEW YORK JETS (45.5)
I know this might not be worth much considering how much I struggled with my over/under predictions last week, but I’m shocked at this number. Jets games have averaged just 30 total points this season, and Gang Green has scored just six points total the last two weeks. The Tennessee offense is good, not great, and might need 35 points to get this close to that total. No-brainer under.
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WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM AT ATLANTA FALCONS (47.5)
Washington’s stacked defense is due to finally put together a strong performance after a tough start to the season. Fortunately, they play an Atlanta team that has averaged just 16 points per game this season. Washington’s offense could have some success against a bad D, but they’re still somewhat shorthanded and on the road. This number is too high.
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ARIZONA CARDINALS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (54.5)
I’m also leaning under here. The Cards have scored 30-plus points in three straight games but they haven’t faced a team that is close to as strong as Los Angeles, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Rams gave up just 24 to the world champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3. I doubt Arizona gets far beyond the 20 mark here, while Arizona’s defense is good enough to avoid a one-sided result.
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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (51.5)
Gotta toss an over in here, although this isn’t my top pick of the week. That total is a bit scary, but both Seattle and San Francisco surrendered 30 points last week and both should be fired up and aggressive following tough losses. This feels like a 30-27-type affair.
Good luck with your Week 4 NFL OVER UNDER picks, whichever way you lean.
Archived NFL Week 4 OVER UNDER picks article from Sept. 29, 2020
Last week’s record: 5-5
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (52)
This seems awfully high considering that no Cardinals game has contained 50 points yet this season and the last two Panthers games have averaged just 43. Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray struggled in Week 3, while star running back Christian McCaffrey remains out for a Carolina offense that has scored just 38 points the last two weeks.
Throw in that the Cards defense continues to perform well and this has the look of a mid-40s game, which would stay comfortably UNDER the opening number of 52.