Nov 21, 2021; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) calls a play against the New Orleans Saints during the third quarter during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Week 4 OVER UNDER picks, best bets

Week 4 OVER UNDER picks arm bettors with information on betting NFL totals, instead of focusing only on point spreads, moneylines or fantasy. There are plenty of potential opportunities to make money on over/unders and we have identified four early games (odds courtesy of Draft Kings Sportsbook) that are worthy of your attention.

Here are several totals for this week that are worthy of your attention.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (54): Under

Two of three Bills games have actually hit the under this year and that defense is on another level compared to what Miami has seen this season. I’m expecting a big correction here from the Dolphins after a crazy Week 3 performance. This number is simply inflated.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (40.5): Over

Why is this so low? The lowest point total for these teams in six combined games this season is 19, and both are averaging 24 points per outing. Yes, both defenses are good, but we’re still talking about Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (48.5): Over

Looking for a correction here. The Raiders have far too much talent on offense not to break out with a decent performance, and this spot makes some sense because the familiar Chargers have surrendered nearly 30 points per game. Meanwhile, L.A. has the league’s fifth-highest-scoring offensive unit. This should soar into the 50s.


Archived Week 4 OVER UNDER picks article from Sept. 30, 2022

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (51): OVER

Unders have been dominating thus far this year but this still feels way too low. We’re talking about two Super Bowl contenders led by two of the best quarterbacks in the league, and Buffalo should be due to bounce back from an off week after scoring 72 points in the first two weeks of the season.

Baltimore, meanwhile, has put up 75 the last two weeks. These two should combine for 60-ish at least on Sunday.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (46): UNDER

These two teams have given up 25 total points combined the last two weeks. That’s an average of 6.3 points allowed per game. I’m not suggesting they’ll combine for only 12 points Sunday, but it’s really hard to imagine them putting up 47 together.

Both offenses are perfectly capable, but I really can’t believe this one is even in the 40s.

Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans (44): UNDER

Not a single Texans game this season has contained 44 points, and I doubt that’ll happen when they host a badly banged up Chargers squad for an early start Sunday. The Bolts put up just 10 points last week at home against a so-so Jaguars team, and Justin Herbert is hurt behind an offensive line that is in bad shape.

Yeah, this looks and feels like a 17-14 affair.


Week 4 OVER UNDER picks article from Sept. 28, 2021

2021 RECORD: 7-9


I know this might not be worth much considering how much I struggled with my over/under predictions last week, but I’m shocked at this number. Jets games have averaged just 30 total points this season, and Gang Green has scored just six points total the last two weeks. The Tennessee offense is good, not great, and might need 35 points to get this close to that total. No-brainer under.

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Washington’s stacked defense is due to finally put together a strong performance after a tough start to the season. Fortunately, they play an Atlanta team that has averaged just 16 points per game this season. Washington’s offense could have some success against a bad D, but they’re still somewhat shorthanded and on the road. This number is too high.

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I’m also leaning under here. The Cards have scored 30-plus points in three straight games but they haven’t faced a team that is close to as strong as Los Angeles, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Rams gave up just 24 to the world champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3. I doubt Arizona gets far beyond the 20 mark here, while Arizona’s defense is good enough to avoid a one-sided result.

[ Watch the total movement this week at BetRivers ]


Gotta toss an over in here, although this isn’t my top pick of the week. That total is a bit scary, but both Seattle and San Francisco surrendered 30 points last week and both should be fired up and aggressive following tough losses. This feels like a 30-27-type affair.

Good luck with your Week 4 NFL OVER UNDER picks, whichever way you lean.

Archived NFL Week 4 OVER UNDER picks article from Sept. 29, 2020

Last week’s record: 5-5

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (52)

This seems awfully high considering that no Cardinals game has contained 50 points yet this season and the last two Panthers games have averaged just 43. Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray struggled in Week 3, while star running back Christian McCaffrey remains out for a Carolina offense that has scored just 38 points the last two weeks.

Throw in that the Cards defense continues to perform well and this has the look of a mid-40s game, which would stay comfortably UNDER the opening number of 52.

Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys (55)

This total is high because both offenses are stacked and the Dallas D is particularly vulnerable, but I still don’t think it’s high enough. It’d be surprising if both offenses didn’t hit the 30 plateau Sunday, as that’s something Cleveland has done in back-to-back games including against a much better Washington defense.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ last two outings have averaged 74 points, and they’ll likely be desperate to keep up with a Browns squad that has gained momentum. This has the look of a wild game that should easily contain 60-plus total points.

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears (45)

The Indy defense isn’t getting enough credit yet for how dominant it has been the last two weeks, while Nick Foles mania might also be driving up this total. But Foles has never been consistent and will face a much larger challenge than he had against the Atlanta Falcons, especially without injured jack-of-all-trades back Tarik Cohen.

The Colts actually have the top-rated defense in football in terms of DVOA after surrendering just 18 points the last two weeks, so I’m not expecting Chicago to hit the 20 mark but a talented Bears defense should also avoid embarrassment.

An Indianapolis blowout could still push this one into the 40s in garbage time, but the under looks like a safe bet right now.

Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins (54)

The rested and rolling Miami offense can be just as capable as New England or Dallas, both of whom broke the 30-point plateau against Seattle the last two weeks. That defense is banged up and struggling, but Russell Wilson and the offense continue to make up for it.

That should continue to be the case Sunday in Miami, especially if the Dolphins are still without top cornerback Byron Jones. Gardner Minshew II couldn’t take advantage, but the Buffalo Bills sure did one week earlier and Seattle should push the 40 mark here as this one goes way over.

Brad Gagnon has been passionate about both sports and mass media since he was in diapers -- a passion that won't die until he's in them again. He was a lead contributor to an earlier incarnation of and was happy to return when new management revived the brand in 2020. Based in Toronto, he's covered the NFL since 2008 and has been a national NFL writer at Bleacher Report since 2012. He despises all 32 NFL teams equally but remains a fan of the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He can be reached at

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