Week 4 OVER UNDER picks, best bets

Week 4 OVER UNDER picks arm bettors with information on betting NFL totals, instead of focusing only on point spreads, moneylines or fantasy. There are plenty of potential opportunities to make money on over/unders and we have identified four early games (odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and Draft Kings Sportsbook) that are worthy of your attention.

Here are several totals for this week that are worthy of your attention.

2021 RECORD: 7-9

TENNESSEE TITANS AT NEW YORK JETS (45.5)

I know this might not be worth much considering how much I struggled with my over/under predictions last week, but I’m shocked at this number. Jets games have averaged just 30 total points this season, and Gang Green has scored just six points total the last two weeks. The Tennessee offense is good, not great, and might need 35 points to get this close to that total. No-brainer under.

[ Get the latest line at monster bonus at FanDuel ]

WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM AT ATLANTA FALCONS (47.5)

Washington’s stacked defense is due to finally put together a strong performance after a tough start to the season. Fortunately, they play an Atlanta team that has averaged just 16 points per game this season. Washington’s offense could have some success against a bad D, but they’re still somewhat shorthanded and on the road. This number is too high.

[ Bet the UNDER at Draft Kings – chance to wager $5 and earn a huge free bet ]

ARIZONA CARDINALS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (54.5)

I’m also leaning under here. The Cards have scored 30-plus points in three straight games but they haven’t faced a team that is close to as strong as Los Angeles, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Rams gave up just 24 to the world champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3. I doubt Arizona gets far beyond the 20 mark here, while Arizona’s defense is good enough to avoid a one-sided result.

[ Watch the total movement this week at BetRivers ]

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (51.5)

Gotta toss an over in here, although this isn’t my top pick of the week. That total is a bit scary, but both Seattle and San Francisco surrendered 30 points last week and both should be fired up and aggressive following tough losses. This feels like a 30-27-type affair.

Good luck with your Week 4 NFL OVER UNDER picks, whichever way you lean.

Archived NFL Week 4 OVER UNDER picks article from Sept. 29, 2020

Last week’s record: 5-5

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (52)

This seems awfully high considering that no Cardinals game has contained 50 points yet this season and the last two Panthers games have averaged just 43. Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray struggled in Week 3, while star running back Christian McCaffrey remains out for a Carolina offense that has scored just 38 points the last two weeks.

Throw in that the Cards defense continues to perform well and this has the look of a mid-40s game, which would stay comfortably UNDER the opening number of 52.

This total is high because both offenses are stacked and the Dallas D is particularly vulnerable, but I still don’t think it’s high enough. It’d be surprising if both offenses didn’t hit the 30 plateau Sunday, as that’s something Cleveland has done in back-to-back games including against a much better Washington defense.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ last two outings have averaged 74 points, and they’ll likely be desperate to keep up with a Browns squad that has gained momentum. This has the look of a wild game that should easily contain 60-plus total points.

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears (45)

The Indy defense isn’t getting enough credit yet for how dominant it has been the last two weeks, while Nick Foles mania might also be driving up this total. But Foles has never been consistent and will face a much larger challenge than he had against the Atlanta Falcons, especially without injured jack-of-all-trades back Tarik Cohen.

The Colts actually have the top-rated defense in football in terms of DVOA after surrendering just 18 points the last two weeks, so I’m not expecting Chicago to hit the 20 mark but a talented Bears defense should also avoid embarrassment.

An Indianapolis blowout could still push this one into the 40s in garbage time, but the under looks like a safe bet right now.

Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins (54)

The rested and rolling Miami offense can be just as capable as New England or Dallas, both of whom broke the 30-point plateau against Seattle the last two weeks. That defense is banged up and struggling, but Russell Wilson and the offense continue to make up for it.

That should continue to be the case Sunday in Miami, especially if the Dolphins are still without top cornerback Byron Jones. Gardner Minshew II couldn’t take advantage, but the Buffalo Bills sure did one week earlier and Seattle should push the 40 mark here as this one goes way over.