Sep 27, 2020; Denver, Colorado, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws a touchdown pass in the first quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Week 5 NFL Betting Trends: Fade Tampa, Bet OVER?

Feeling OVERwhelmed with all the OVERs happening? You might want to get used it – and turn a profit from it – for Thursday Night here in Week 5 as Tampa Bay has a ton of trends leaning that way.

The 39-23-1 run for OVERs through the first four weeks of the season is just one storyline for bettors. And Week 5 sees the introduction of pre- and post-bye-week handicapping research, which sees New Orleans as a team to consider strongly this week.

Week 5 sees some bad teams as big favorites (1-3 Dallas is -10 vs the Giants, 0-4 Houston is -6.5 vs Jacksonville and 2-2 Arizona is -7.5 at the Jets) and at least one good team that is an underdog (3-1 Cleveland is +2.5 at home to the Colts).

So whether you like the 17-1 ATS trend for the Saints or the 14-0 SU Baltimore run that turns into a 3-11 ATS run, we’ve got something for every trend lover in Week 5. Check out odds and welcome bonus offers at BetRivers and SugarHouse.

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Tampa Bay -5.5 at Chicago Total 44.5

The Bucs have been an ATS disaster in October over the years (1-11-1 ATS) but it’s their OVER trends that ring loudest here on Thursday night. 12 straight OVERs in conference games, 20 of 27 on the road, even 7 of 9 on Thursdays. They might go OVER 44.5 by themselves.

The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Chicago’s last 13 games at home.

Chicago is 21-5 SU past 26 games at home against Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay played 12 straight OVERs vs NFC teams.

Tampa Bay is 1-11-1 ATS past 13 games played in October.

OVER is 16-5 Tampa Bay’s last 21 games.

OVER is 20-7 Tampa Bay’s last 27 road games.

Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS past 6 games played on a Thursday.

OVER is 7-2 Tampa Bay’s last 9 games played on a Thursday.

TB won and covered past four as road chalk

Chicago is 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games

Chicago is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Thursday.

Buffalo -8.5 at Tennessee Total ?

Expect this line to gyrate during the week, depending on which Tennessee players are in and out due to Covid-19. This game should be a PK or small chalk line for the Titans, but if Bills close as favorites here, Buffalo is 18-3 SU in their last 21 games as the favorite.

Tennessee are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games played in Week 5.

Jacksonville + 6.5 at Houston Total 54

Not often you see an 0-4 team favored by 6.5 points, but here ya go. Must be the Jaguars in town…

Jacksonville is 2-10 SU past 12 against Houston.

Jacksonville is 6-2 ATS past 8 games at Houston.

Jacksonville is 1-7 ATS past 8 games played in Week 5.

Houston is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games.

Houston is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games at home.

OVER is 19-6 Houston’s last 25 games played in October.

Houston is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games played in week 5.

Houston 1-6 ATS past 7 as home favorites

Las Vegas +13.5 at Kansas City Total 57

Kansas City looked bad against the Patriots and still won in Week 4. Is that a one-game funk or a trend? Maybe the UNDER looks better here, since the Chiefs played 8 straight UNDERs when double-digit home favorites and the Raiders own an 18-3 UNDER run in divisional games.

Chiefs covered 9 straight at home

Chiefs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games against an opponent in the AFC.

Chiefs are 10-1 ATS past 11 games as favorites.

Las Vegas is 1-10 SU (3-8 ATS) in their last 11 games against Kansas City.

Las Vegas lost seven straight, 1-6 ATS at Kansas City.

UNDER is 18 of Las Vegas’ last 21 games against an opponent in the AFC West division.

Arizona -7.5 at NY Jets Total 47

Zona lost last week as road chalk and is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games when playing as the favorite. Take the Jets? Really?

Carolina +3.5 at Atlanta Total 54.5

Carolina very seldom covers against the Falcons. Atlanta will eventually break out and win a game right?

Carolina is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games against Atlanta.

Carolina is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on the road against Atlanta.

Rams -7.5 at Washington Total 45.5

The Rams ride some hot streaks, but laying seven points on the road is a big ask, even with a QB change happening in Washington.

LA Rams are 9-3 ATS past 12 road games.

LA Rams are 5-2 ATS past 7 games at Washington.

LA Rams are 14-4-1 ATS past 19 games vs NFC foes.

Washington is 4-21 SU past 25 games as the underdog.

Philadelphia +7.5 at Pittsburgh Total 47.5

If the Eagles aren’t the worst first-place in history after four weeks, they must be close. At 1-2-1, they lead the NFC East, but catch 7.5 points in Pittsburgh. The Eagles are 8-3 ATS as road dog of 7 or more since 2007 (including last week) winning outright in 3 of 4 games in this situation. Both teams cover spreads in Week 5, for whatever reason.

Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS past 6 games vs Pittsburgh.

Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS past 11 games played in Week 5.

Pittsburgh is 7-1-1 ATS past 9 games played in October.

Pittsburgh is 17-5-2 ATS past 24 games played in Week 5.

Cincinnati +14 at Baltimore Total 52

Baltimore is favored by two TDs for the second straight week. Don’t expect them to lose, as they are 29-1 SU as double-digit home favorites, while their opponents from Cincinnati are 1-29 SU as double-digit road underdogs. But we are concerned with the spread around here and the Ravens are just 3-11 ATS past 14 as DD home favorites, which concerns us.

Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS past 7 games against Baltimore.

Cincinnati is 15-6 ATS past 21 games on the road, despite 0-13-1 SU run

Cincinnati is 2-20-1 SU past 23 games as the underdog.

Baltimore is 9-2 ATS past 11 conference games.

Ravens 29-1 SU as DD favorites, Bengals 1-29 SU as DD road dogs

Miami +8.5 at San Francisco Total 46.5

The 49ers were favored by 8.5 points at home in Week 4 and look how that turned out – a bust against the low-flying Eagles. Miami never covers against the Niners, so maybe this week will be different.

Miami is 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games against San Francisco.

Denver +11 at New England

The Pats had covered nine straight games heading into a bye week, before losing the past two seasons in this situation – both times as road favorites. This time they are big home chalk. And they still have Bill Belichick, even if Jarrett Stidham isn’t quite as good as Tom Brady.

New England is 25-3 SU past 28 October games (20-7-1 ATS)

Denver has failed to cover the past five trips to New England.

UNDER is 20-7 Denver’s past 27 games within the AFC.

Denver is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played in October.

Denver is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games when playing as the underdog.

New England is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games played in Week 5.

NY Giants +10 at Dallas Total 54

Another bad team as a big favorite. Cowboys are 1-3 and lay 10 points and get lucky with the Giants, whom they have thumped in recent years. But the Giants covered as double-digit road dogs last week and can do it again. Check out the OVER trends too….

Dallas is 13-2 ATS past 15 games within NFC East division.

NY Giants are 0-12 SU in their last 12 games when playing as the underdog (3-22 SU overall)

NY Giants are 1-12 SU in their last 13 games played in October.

Cowboys 6-0 ATS run vs Giants

NY Giants are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games on the road.

OVER is 8-3 NY Giants’ last 11 games at Dallas

OVER is 8-3 Dallas’ last 11 home games.

OVER is 16-6 Dallas’ last 22 conference games.

OVER is 8-2 Dallas’ last 10 games against an opponent in the NFC East division

Dallas is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games played in Week 5.

Indianapolis -2.5 at Cleveland Total 47.5

Still looking for positive Browns trends historically (hysterically?) but their recent three-game win streak might be the most valuable streak. The UNDER has been a good bet when Cleveland is a dog in the Dawg Pound.

Colts won five straight at Cleveland

Indianapolis is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played in Week 5.

UNDER is 16-3 past 19 Browns games as home dogs

Cleveland is 3-19 SU in their last 22 games played in October.

Minnesota +8.5 at Seattle Total 58

Seattle usually wins and covers before a bye week, but they usually fail to cover as home chalk in October. You figure it out….

Seattle 9-0 SU, 8-1 ATS past nine seasons before bye week

Seahawks 1-8 ATS since 2013 as home chalk in month of October

Minnesota is 0-6 SU (1-5-1 ATS) past 6 games vs Seattle.

OVER is 7-1 Minnesota’s last 8 games at Seattle

Vikes 1-6 ATS past 7 at Seattle

Vikes 12-1 SU (9-3-1 ATS) in their last 13 games played in October.

Minnesota is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played in Week 5.

LA Chargers +7.5 at New Orleans Total 52

For whatever reason, the Saints are cover machine in October (now 17-1 ATS past 18 times). They have also won and covered four straight before bye week.

New Orleans is 17-1 ATS in their last 18 games played in October.

New Orleans is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Monday.

OVER is 8-1 LA Chargers’ last 9 games against New Orleans

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.

Upcoming Games

Oct 29th, 8:20 PM

Atlanta +1.5 -110

Carolina -1.5 -110

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Nov 1st, 1:00 PM

Pittsburgh +4 -110

Baltimore -4 -110

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Nov 1st, 1:00 PM

Minnesota +6.5 -115

Green Bay -6.5 -115

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Nov 1st, 1:00 PM

NY Jets +19.5 -110

Kansas City -19.5 -110

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Nov 1st, 1:00 PM

Indianapolis -2.5 +105

Detroit +2.5 +105

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Nov 1st, 1:00 PM

Tennessee -5.5 -110

Cincinnati +5.5 -110

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Nov 1st, 1:00 PM

Las Vegas +2.5 -110

Cleveland -2.5 -110

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Nov 1st, 1:00 PM

New England +4 -110

Buffalo -4 -110

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Nov 1st, 1:00 PM

LA Rams -3.5 -110

Miami +3.5 -110

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Nov 1st, 4:05 PM

LA Chargers -3 +100

Denver +3 +100

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Nov 1st, 4:25 PM

San Francisco +3 -105

Seattle -3 -105

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Nov 1st, 4:25 PM

New Orleans -4.5 -110

Chicago +4.5 -110

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Nov 1st, 8:20 PM

Dallas +9 -110

Philadelphia -9 -110

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Nov 2nd, 8:15 PM

Tampa Bay -12.5 -110

NY Giants +12.5 -110

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Nov 5th, 8:20 PM

Green Bay +1 -110

San Francisco -1 -110

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