Sep 24, 2023; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) is pressured by New Orleans Saints linebacker Demario Davis (56) during the first quarter at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

Week 5 NFL Betting Trends

How em-Bear-assing will I be for Chicago to lose their 15th straight game to open Week 5? There are so many negative Bears trends to lean on and Washington usually wins SU as a favorite, but can they cover the points, knowing their horrible trend as home chalk of 6 or more points (3-16 ATS)?

Miami comes off a humbling loss to be a double-digit home favorite to the Giants, just the fourth time since 2009 the Dolphins lay 10 or more at home. The Eagles are favored at the Rams and they have won 11 in a row SU as road favorites while the 49ers have covered 9 straight as home favorites – they host Dallas in Game of the Week.

On Monday Night, the Packers visit Las Vegas, winners off 8 in a row vs Las Vegas and winners of six straight Monday Nighter. Get the latest Week 5 NFL betting trends now and see the latest odds and bonus specials at Draft Kings Sportsbook.

Chicago @ Washington -6.5, Total 44.5 | Matchup Report

Commanders 3-16 ATS past 19 games as home chalk of 6 or more points since November 2005

UNDER is 14-2 Washington’s last 16 games at home.

UNDER is 12-2 Washington’s last 14 games played in Week 5.

Bears lost 14 straight games SU and 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12

OVER is 12-3 Chicago’s last 15 games.

Bears are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 vs Washington.

Bears are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games on the road

Bears are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs NFC teams

Bears are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games played on a Thursday, five games went UNDER

Bears are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 games as the underdog.

OVER is 9-3 Washington’s last 12 games on a Thursday.

Commanders are 8-2-1 SU in their last 11 games as the favorite

NY Giants @ Miami -10.5, Total 49.5 | Matchup Report

Dolphins are 12-2 SU in their last 14 Sunday home games

UNDER is 12-2 Giants’ last 14 non-conference games

OVER is 12-4 Giants’ last 16 games played in Week 5

Giants failed to cover five straight games

Dolphins are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games played in October.

Just the fourth time since 2009 Miami is double-digit home favorite

Philadelphia @ LA Rams +4.5, Total 50 | Matchup Report

Rams are 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games against Philadelphia.

Eagles are 24-3 SU in their last 27 games as the favorite.

Rams are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games.

Eagles are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games on the road, 6-1 ATS past 6 at Rams

Eagles won 11 in a row SU as road chalk, but covered just five times

Rams 6-1 ATS past 7 as home dogs

Sunday Night Football Trends

Dallas @ San Francisco -3.5, Total 45 | Matchup Report

49ers have won 15 straight SU as favorites

49ers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games and covered 9 straight at home

49ers are 19-4 ATS in their last 23 conference games

Cowboys are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played in October.

UNDER is 7-2 Dallas’ last 9 games as the underdog

Monday Night Football trends

Green Bay @ Las Vegas +2, Total 44.5 | Matchup Report

Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games

Packers are 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs Las Vegas.

Past six meetings all played OVER the total

Packers won 6 straight Monday Nighters SU

Packers just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite.

Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Monday.

 

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Archived Week 5 NFL betting trends article from Oct. 6, 2022

Steelers fans (and bettors) have never seen an underdog number like the one they face in Buffalo in Week 5, at least not since our regular season database creation in 1980.

Pittsburgh opened as 14-point dogs at Buffalo, which would surpass the 13 points they caught Sept. 6, 1992 at Houston (when they were the Oilers, not the Texans). And they have been feared in this situation through the years, double-digit dogs just 12 times since 1980 and winning outright five times.

Thursday sees plenty of UNDER streaks, the Cardinals have lost 7 in a row at home as they host unbeaten Philly, who have 5 straight at Arizona. Check out the Week 5 NFL betting trends report on key matchups and get the latest game odds and props (along with a whopper $1,000 bonus) at Draft Kings Sportsbook.

Week 5 NFL Betting Trends updated during the week

Indianapolis @ Denver -3.5, Total 43.5 – Matchup Report

Broncos are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against an opponent in the AFC.

Colts are 10-2 SU in their last 12 Thursday road games

Colts have played UNDER in 9 straight games

UNDER is 15-6 past 21 Denver games

UNDER is 17-5 Denver’s last 22 games as the favourite.

Colts are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against Denver.

Colts are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played in week 5.

Colts are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as the underdog.

Broncos are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 Thursday games

Pittsburgh @ Buffalo -14, Total 47 – Matchup Report

UNDER is 15-3 Pittsburgh’s last 18 games vs AFC East

Bills are 15-3 SU in their last 18 home games

Steelers are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games played in Week 5.

Steelers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against Buffalo.

Steelers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 vs AFC East

Steelers are 11-2 SU and 19-5-2 ATS in their last 26 games played in Week 5.

Steelers have been regular season double-digit dogs just 12 times since 1980 and won outright five times.

Bills are 6-1-2 ATS past 9 as double digit chalk

Philadelphia at Arizona +5, Total 49.5 – Matchup Report

UNDER is 10-1 Arizona’s last 11 games vs NFC East division.

Cardinals lost 7 in a row SU & ATS, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games

Eagles are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games as the favourite.

Eagles are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games at Arizona.

Cardinals 6-1-1 ATS past 8 vs Eagles

Eagles 0-5 SU and ATS last 5 at Arizona

Eagles won 8 in a row SU as favorites

Cardinals are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs NFC East teams.

Cardinals are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 5.

Cardinals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as the underdog.

Dallas @ LA Rams -4.5, Total 45.5 – Matchup Report

Underdog has won the past two meetings in 2019/2020

Cowboys have won 3 of past 4 games as road dogs

Cowboys just 3-8 SU past 11 games vs NFC West

Sunday Night Football Trends

Cincinnati @ Baltimore -3, Total 48 – Matchup Report

UNDER is 11-2 Cincinnati’s last 13 games.

Bengals are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 conference games

Bengals are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games.

Bengals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the road.

Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games at Baltimore.

Ravens have lost 5 straight at home

Monday Night Football Trends

Las Vegas @ Kansas City -7, Total 51 – Matchup Report

Chiefs are 37-5 SU in their last 42 divisional games

Chiefs are 13-2 SU in their last 15 vs Las Vegas.

Raiders are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played on a Monday.

Chiefs are 4-10 SU in their last 14 games played in week 5.

Chiefs are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games played on a Monday.

 

NFL Week 5 NFL betting trends archived article from Oct. 6, 2021

Seattle always wins on Thursday and usually covers as underdogs – so are the LA Rams really a great bet that everyone seems to think? What about Miami’s recent run of three SU victories in four games when they are double-digit underdogs – can that continue in Tampa Bay?

In the NFC North, the Lions never beat the Vikings, but Minnesota never covers as favorites. Check out the results of Trend Dummy’s deep database diving as we hit the first bye-week-related trend analysis as four teams are playing before a bye.

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel as of Tuesday, check them out for line moves and current bonus specials for all your DFS and football wagering needs.

Week 5 NFL Betting Trends

Thursday Night Football

LA Rams @ Seattle +2.5, Total 54.5 | Matchup Report

Seahawks won 9 straight Thursdays, 10-1 SU in their last 11 (8-1-2 ATS)

Seahawks are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games played in October.

UNDER is 10-2 LA Rams’ last 12 games played in October.

LA Rams are 4-13 SU in their last 17 games when playing on the road against Seattle.

Rams played 6 straight OVERs

Rams are 4-13 SU in their last 17 games at Seattle

Seahawks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games when playing as the underdog

New York Jets @ Atlanta -3, Total 46 | Matchup Report

Jets are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games on the road.

Falcons are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games played in October.

Falcons are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games as the favorite.

UNDER is 11-3 past 14 Falcons game before a bye week

New England @ Houston +9, Total 39.5 | Matchup Report

Patriots are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games played in Week 5

UNDER is 10-2 New England’s last 12 games.

Patriots are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games played in October.

Detroit @ Minnesota -7.5, Total 49 | Matchup Report

Vikings are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games

Vikings failed to cover past 6 times as faves

Vikings are 19-4 SU in their last 23 games at home against Detroit.

Vikings are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games played in week 5.

Lions are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games

Lions are 0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against Minnesota

Lions are 1-13 SU in their last 14 divisional games

New Orleans @ Washington +1, Total 44.5 | Matchup Report

Saints are 11-2 SU past 13 seasons before a bye week

UNDER is 11-1 Washington’s last 12 games played in Week 5.

OVER is 10-1 Washington’s last 11 games against New Orleans.

Saints are 15-1 SU in their last 16 games played in October (17-4 ATS past 21)

Past 6 meetings all played OVER

Saints are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games on the road.

Past 7 meetings here all played OVER

Miami @ Tampa Bay -10.5, Total 48 | Matchup Report

Dolphins have won outright 3 of the past 4 times as double-digit dogs.

Dolphins are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as the underdog, 18-6 ATS past 24

Bucs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against Miami.

Bucs are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games played in October

Green Bay @ Cincinnati +3, Total 51.5 | Matchup Report

OVER is 15-6 Green Bay’s last 21 games played in Week 5.

Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Sunday home games

Denver @ Pittsburgh -1, Total 40 | Matchup Report

UNDER is 9-3 Denver’s last 12 games.

Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on the road

Last 6 meetings at Pittsburgh all played OVER

Steelers are 11-2 SU, 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games played in October.

Steelers are 18-5-2 ATS in their last 25 games played in week 5.

Steelers failed to cover past 6 times as favorites

Philadelphia @ Carolina -3.5, Total 45 | Matchup Report

Eagles are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games on the road.

Cleveland @ LA Chargers -2.5, Total 47 Draft Kings | Matchup Report

Browns are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games against an opponent in the AFC West division, 5-13 ATS past 18.

Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.

Browns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against LA Chargers.

Browns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road.

Browns lost 6 straight SU at Chargers

Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games

UNDER is 16-6 LA Chargers’ last 22 games at home.

Buffalo @ Kansas City -2.5, Total 56.5 at FanDuel | Matchup Report

Bills are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games

Chiefs are 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games.

Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Buffalo.

Bills 5-2 ATS past 7 visits to KC

Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games

Bills have played 5 straight OVERs when underdogs

Chiefs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games at home, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 conference games

Monday Night Football Trends

Indianapolis @ Baltimore -7, Total 45.5 at FanDuel | Matchup Report

Ravens are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against Indianapolis.

UNDER i2 12-1 past meetings of Ravens and Colts

Indianapolis are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games as underdog.

Colts are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against Baltimore, 6-1 ATS past 7 at Baltimore

Colts are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games played in October.

Colts are 16-3 SU in their last 19 games played in week 5.

Colts are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games played on a Monday.

Ravens  are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 conference games

Ravens have won 7 straight October games

More Week 5 NFL betting trends coming soon….

Archived Week 5 NFL betting trends article from Oct. 7, 2020

Feeling OVERwhelmed with all the OVERs happening? You might want to get used it – and turn a profit from it – for Thursday Night here in Week 5 as Tampa Bay has a ton of trends leaning that way.

The 39-23-1 run for OVERs through the first four weeks of the season is just one storyline for bettors. And Week 5 sees the introduction of pre- and post-bye-week handicapping research, which sees New Orleans as a team to consider strongly this week.

Week 5 sees some bad teams as big favorites (1-3 Dallas is -10 vs the Giants, 0-4 Houston is -6.5 vs Jacksonville and 2-2 Arizona is -7.5 at the Jets) and at least one good team that is an underdog (3-1 Cleveland is +2.5 at home to the Colts).

So whether you like the 17-1 ATS trend for the Saints or the 14-0 SU Baltimore run that turns into a 3-11 ATS run, we’ve got something for every trend lover in Week 5. Check out odds and welcome bonus offers at FanDuel and Draft Kings.

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Tampa Bay -5.5 at Chicago Total 44.5

The Bucs have been an ATS disaster in October over the years (1-11-1 ATS) but it’s their OVER trends that ring loudest here on Thursday night. 12 straight OVERs in conference games, 20 of 27 on the road, even 7 of 9 on Thursdays. They might go OVER 44.5 by themselves.

The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Chicago’s last 13 games at home.

Chicago is 21-5 SU past 26 games at home against Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay played 12 straight OVERs vs NFC teams.

Tampa Bay is 1-11-1 ATS past 13 games played in October.

OVER is 16-5 Tampa Bay’s last 21 games.

OVER is 20-7 Tampa Bay’s last 27 road games.

Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS past 6 games played on a Thursday.

OVER is 7-2 Tampa Bay’s last 9 games played on a Thursday.

TB won and covered past four as road chalk

Chicago is 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games

Chicago is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Thursday.

Buffalo -8.5 at Tennessee Total ?

Expect this line to gyrate during the week, depending on which Tennessee players are in and out due to Covid-19. This game should be a PK or small chalk line for the Titans, but if Bills close as favorites here, Buffalo is 18-3 SU in their last 21 games as the favorite.

Tennessee are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games played in Week 5.

Jacksonville + 6.5 at Houston Total 54

Not often you see an 0-4 team favored by 6.5 points, but here ya go. Must be the Jaguars in town…

Jacksonville is 2-10 SU past 12 against Houston.

Jacksonville is 6-2 ATS past 8 games at Houston.

Jacksonville is 1-7 ATS past 8 games played in Week 5.

Houston is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games.

Houston is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games at home.

OVER is 19-6 Houston’s last 25 games played in October.

Houston is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games played in week 5.

Houston 1-6 ATS past 7 as home favorites

Las Vegas +13.5 at Kansas City Total 57

Kansas City looked bad against the Patriots and still won in Week 4. Is that a one-game funk or a trend? Maybe the UNDER looks better here, since the Chiefs played 8 straight UNDERs when double-digit home favorites and the Raiders own an 18-3 UNDER run in divisional games.

Chiefs covered 9 straight at home

Chiefs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games against an opponent in the AFC.

Chiefs are 10-1 ATS past 11 games as favorites.

Las Vegas is 1-10 SU (3-8 ATS) in their last 11 games against Kansas City.

Las Vegas lost seven straight, 1-6 ATS at Kansas City.

UNDER is 18 of Las Vegas’ last 21 games against an opponent in the AFC West division.

Arizona -7.5 at NY Jets Total 47

Zona lost last week as road chalk and is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games when playing as the favorite. Take the Jets? Really?

Carolina +3.5 at Atlanta Total 54.5

Carolina very seldom covers against the Falcons. Atlanta will eventually break out and win a game right?

Carolina is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games against Atlanta.

Carolina is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on the road against Atlanta.

Rams -7.5 at Washington Total 45.5

The Rams ride some hot streaks, but laying seven points on the road is a big ask, even with a QB change happening in Washington.

LA Rams are 9-3 ATS past 12 road games.

LA Rams are 5-2 ATS past 7 games at Washington.

LA Rams are 14-4-1 ATS past 19 games vs NFC foes.

Washington is 4-21 SU past 25 games as the underdog.

Philadelphia +7.5 at Pittsburgh Total 47.5

If the Eagles aren’t the worst first-place in history after four weeks, they must be close. At 1-2-1, they lead the NFC East, but catch 7.5 points in Pittsburgh. The Eagles are 8-3 ATS as road dog of 7 or more since 2007 (including last week) winning outright in 3 of 4 games in this situation. Both teams cover spreads in Week 5, for whatever reason.

Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS past 6 games vs Pittsburgh.

Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS past 11 games played in Week 5.

Pittsburgh is 7-1-1 ATS past 9 games played in October.

Pittsburgh is 17-5-2 ATS past 24 games played in Week 5.

Cincinnati +14 at Baltimore Total 52

Baltimore is favored by two TDs for the second straight week. Don’t expect them to lose, as they are 29-1 SU as double-digit home favorites, while their opponents from Cincinnati are 1-29 SU as double-digit road underdogs. But we are concerned with the spread around here and the Ravens are just 3-11 ATS past 14 as DD home favorites, which concerns us.

Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS past 7 games against Baltimore.

Cincinnati is 15-6 ATS past 21 games on the road, despite 0-13-1 SU run

Cincinnati is 2-20-1 SU past 23 games as the underdog.

Baltimore is 9-2 ATS past 11 conference games.

Ravens 29-1 SU as DD favorites, Bengals 1-29 SU as DD road dogs

Miami +8.5 at San Francisco Total 46.5

The 49ers were favored by 8.5 points at home in Week 4 and look how that turned out – a bust against the low-flying Eagles. Miami never covers against the Niners, so maybe this week will be different.

Miami is 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games against San Francisco.

Denver +11 at New England

The Pats had covered nine straight games heading into a bye week, before losing the past two seasons in this situation – both times as road favorites. This time they are big home chalk. And they still have Bill Belichick, even if Jarrett Stidham isn’t quite as good as Tom Brady.

New England is 25-3 SU past 28 October games (20-7-1 ATS)

Denver has failed to cover the past five trips to New England.

UNDER is 20-7 Denver’s past 27 games within the AFC.

Denver is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played in October.

Denver is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games when playing as the underdog.

New England is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games played in Week 5.

NY Giants +10 at Dallas Total 54

Another bad team as a big favorite. Cowboys are 1-3 and lay 10 points and get lucky with the Giants, whom they have thumped in recent years. But the Giants covered as double-digit road dogs last week and can do it again. Check out the OVER trends too….

Dallas is 13-2 ATS past 15 games within NFC East division.

NY Giants are 0-12 SU in their last 12 games when playing as the underdog (3-22 SU overall)

NY Giants are 1-12 SU in their last 13 games played in October.

Cowboys 6-0 ATS run vs Giants

NY Giants are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games on the road.

OVER is 8-3 NY Giants’ last 11 games at Dallas

OVER is 8-3 Dallas’ last 11 home games.

OVER is 16-6 Dallas’ last 22 conference games.

OVER is 8-2 Dallas’ last 10 games against an opponent in the NFC East division

Dallas is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games played in Week 5.

Indianapolis -2.5 at Cleveland Total 47.5

Still looking for positive Browns trends historically (hysterically?) but their recent three-game win streak might be the most valuable streak. The UNDER has been a good bet when Cleveland is a dog in the Dawg Pound.

Colts won five straight at Cleveland

Indianapolis is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played in Week 5.

UNDER is 16-3 past 19 Browns games as home dogs

Cleveland is 3-19 SU in their last 22 games played in October.

Minnesota +8.5 at Seattle Total 58

Seattle usually wins and covers before a bye week, but they usually fail to cover as home chalk in October. You figure it out….

Seattle 9-0 SU, 8-1 ATS past nine seasons before bye week

Seahawks 1-8 ATS since 2013 as home chalk in month of October

Minnesota is 0-6 SU (1-5-1 ATS) past 6 games vs Seattle.

OVER is 7-1 Minnesota’s last 8 games at Seattle

Vikes 1-6 ATS past 7 at Seattle

Vikes 12-1 SU (9-3-1 ATS) in their last 13 games played in October.

Minnesota is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played in Week 5.

LA Chargers +7.5 at New Orleans Total 52

For whatever reason, the Saints are cover machine in October (now 17-1 ATS past 18 times). They have also won and covered four straight before bye week.

New Orleans is 17-1 ATS in their last 18 games played in October.

New Orleans is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Monday.

OVER is 8-1 LA Chargers’ last 9 games against New Orleans

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.

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