We’re back with our Week 5 NFL picks, guiding you with our analysis and selections against the spread every week. After a strong showing with our first four weeks, here are the next batch of predictions, with odds coming from Draft Kings Sportsbook.
For matchup reports and stat breakdowns of every game (along with live updated football betting lines), click here.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-5.5): Bills
The Bills are just unstoppable right now, having outscored their last three opponents by 90 points. Even at a neutral site, it’s a crime they’re giving up just 5.5 points to a Jacksonville Jaguars squad that already has two eight-plus-point losses in the books. This should be an easy Buffalo win.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at Arizona Cardinals: Bengals
I know the Bengals haven’t been themselves, but come on! Cincinnati is still extremely talented and now in a desperate spot against a terrible Cardinals team that has been playing above its head. Getting them for just a field goal without even a hook is a present.
New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-1.5): Broncos
Denver has life and this is a huge home game for them. What tells anyone the Zach Wilson-quarterbacked Jets are better than these Broncos? That’s what this line is saying, which is silly. The Jets showed spirit last week against the Chiefs but that’s not likely sustainable. Denver wins without a doubt.
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Archived Week 5 NFL picks article from Oct. 6, 2022
Miami Dolphins (-3) at New York Jets: Dolphins
The Dolphins are a very capable team regardless of whether Tua Tagovailoa is in the lineup. Teddy Bridgewater is good enough to guide them against an inferior team that hardly showed up for its last home game.
Tennessee Titans (-2.5) at Washington Commanders: Commanders
Tennessee has salvaged its season the last couple weeks, but the Titans aren’t especially better than Washington and the Commanders are desperate at home here. Washington should win outright but I’d buy up to +3 to be safe, if possible.
Philadelphia Eagles (-5) at Arizona Cardinals: Cardinals
Parity has hit everyone but Philly this season, and even if that bubble isn’t burst here, I think a very skilled Cardinals team can keep this close at home. No way in hell the Eagles are eight-ish points better than Arizona.
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (-5.5): Cowboys
Dallas has hung in well without Dak Prescott and they could even have their star signal-caller back here. Why are they getting more than a handful of points from a Rams team that hasn’t been impressive and is on short rest following a loss to the 49ers?
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-7): Raiders
Kansas City is coming off a nice win but hasn’t been consistent this season, while the Raiders really need this against a familiar opponent. They’ll hang in a big spot. They’re too talented not to.
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Week 5 NFL Picks archived article from Oct. 11, 2021
2021 RECORD: 35-29
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LA RAMS (-2.5) AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: SEAHAWKS
I don’t care if the Rams have had Seattle’s number of late. The Seahawks aren’t likely to fall to 2-3 with the league’s highest-rated passer, especially with a second consecutive home loss in front of a cacophonous post-COVID crowd in the Pacific Northwest, and especially with the Rams operating on the road on short rest after an ugly showing against the Arizona Cardinals.
NY JETS AT ATLANTA FALCONS (-3): FALCONS
By no means do I trust the Falcons, but let’s not pretend the Jets are good based on one shocking home victory over a depleted opponent. In London, they’ll likely return to being the team that was outscored 51-6 in the previous two weeks.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3.5): PANTHERS
The hook scares me here but the Panthers have a shot at getting Christian McCaffrey back and the Eagles have just looked so ragged during an 0-3 stretch both straight-up and against the spread. They should be getting at least a handful of points from a strong all-around opponent on the road.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3) AT CINCINNATI BENGALS: BENGALS
The Bengals haven’t lost by more than three points this season. I think they can hang with the depleted Packers at home. It’s as simple as that.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-8.5) AT HOUSTON TEXANS: PATRIOTS
Bill Belichick eats rookie quarterbacks for breakfast, and he’ll be fired up to crush the joke that is the Houston Texans with Davis Mills at quarterback. After Houston fell 40-0 last week, this should be a double-digit spread. The Patriots won’t mess around following that loss to Tom Brady and Co.
TENNESSEE TITANS (-4) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: TITANS
The Titans also won’t want to screw around against a bad AFC South team after a disappointing Week 4 loss. They won’t leave anything to chance against a Jaguars squad that had lost seven consecutive games by double-digit margins before losing by a field goal to the Bengals in Week 4. The Urban Meyer mess won’t likely help Jacksonville either. Here comes their 20th straight loss. Don’t expect it to be close.
DENVER BRONCOS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-1): STEELERS
The Broncos will likely have to use the unreliable Drew Lock against a desperate, experienced and defensively opportunistic Steelers squad on the road. Their defense has been good but it’s quite banged up right now. This just isn’t a good spot, and it’s weird Steelers backers are only giving up a point.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-2) AT WASHINGTON: WASHINGTON
It’s also weird Washington backers are getting two points at home from a Saints squad that has been comically inconsistent. This is a horrible matchup with the New Orleans offense, which features a famously mistake-prone quarterback and a gap at left tackle thanks to Terron Armstead’s injury. Have fun, Chase Young and Co.
DETROIT LIONS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-8.5): VIKINGS
The Lions were already a mess before getting smashed by some key injuries. And yes, they’ve had some fight in them under new head coach Dan Campbell this year, but their spirited efforts have come at home. On the road, this should be a blowout.
MIAMI DOLPHINS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-10): DOLPHINS
The Bucs secondary is in brutal shape. The Dolphins might not have the passing game to take full advantage of that, but Brian Flores is a great coach and his team is desperate. They’ll find a way to put up a fight against an opponent that might overlook them after last week’s high-profile meeting with the Patriots.
CLEVELAND BROWNS AT LA CHARGERS (-2.5): BROWNS
I have no feel for this game and wouldn’t bet it, but I do still believe the Browns are the better team — even if they’re not exactly playing that way. Baker Mayfield has a bounce-back in him, and this could feel like a bit of a home game anyway for Cleveland.
CHICAGO BEARS AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-5): BEARS
Whaaaaaat? Whyyyyy? Who believes the Raiders are several points better than the Bears? Chicago’s defense is the best unit in this game by a wide margin, and Justin Fields should be able to pick apart a depleted secondary. The Raiders fall outright on short rest.
NY GIANTS AT DALLAS COWBOYS (-7): GIANTS
I don’t bother with these NFC East guessing games, and based on this line, oddsmakers feel the same way. The most likely outcome is indeed Dallas by a touchdown, but I’ll roll the dice on an anti-trend play because the Cowboys are due for a dud and the Giants know them well.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (-5.5): 49ERS
The 49ers are banged up, but they really need this game and the Cardinals are also due to hit a speed bump. Arizona might still win this, but 5.5 points is far too much.
BUFFALO BILLS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-2.5): CHIEFS
You’re telling me I only have to lay 2.5 points with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in prime time at Arrowhead in what likely feels like a must-win situation? I believe in the Bills, but I believe even more in Mahomes and Reid under those circumstances.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (-6.5): RAVENS
The Ravens beat the Chiefs in prime time at this site a few weeks ago. And while this spread isn’t tiny, Baltimore is very good at winning big. I’m not sure the Colts can sustain the energy they found suddenly last week, especially in this spot.
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Archived Week 5 NFL picks article from Oct. 9, 2020
(Sunday’s scheduled games between the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans and the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots are off the board due to COVID-19-related concerns.)
2020 RECORD: 37-24-2
