Dec 29, 2019; Tampa, Florida, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman (24) runs with the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Week 5 OVER UNDER picks from Gagnon

Maybe you’ve already got your picks in for Week 5 of the 2020 NFL regular season, but by focusing only on point spreads, moneylines or fantasy, you’re robbing yourself of potential opportunities to make money on Week 5 over under picks.

Here are several totals for this week at FanDuel Sportsbook (No Sweat Free Bet Up to $1,000) that are worthy of your attention.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (40.5): OVER

Green Bay and its star quarterback are due for an explosion at home, while the Giants have at least been consistent offensively thanks to a revival from running back Saquon Barkley. New York should be good for at least 14-17 points here, which should easily put this well into the 40s.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (48): UNDER

Atlanta’s offense is also due for a correction, but in the wrong direction. The Bucs might have been exploited defensively by Patrick Mahomes and Co. last week, but that unit gave up just 9.0 points per game in September and it’s also becoming hard to keep giving the benefit of the doubt to Tom Brady and the Tampa offense. This feels like a 21-10-type result.

Detroit Lions at New England Patriots (45.5): OVER

The Detroit defense has surrendered at least 27 points in all four games this season, including 48 at home against a mediocre Seattle offense last week. How can we possibly expect there to be fewer than 50 in this game, especially with Bill Belichick’s squad officially in desperation mode at home?

 

Week 5 OVER UNDER picks archived article from Oct. 11, 2021

2021 RECORD: 7-13

TENNESSEE TITANS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (48.5)

If Titans-Jets can hit 51, Titans-Jaguars can easily surpass 48.5. Tennessee’s weak defense has surrendered 27-plus points three times in four weeks, the Jags have one of the worst defenses in the league, and both Derrick Henry and Trevor Lawrence should get theirs (especially with potential garbage time).

BUFFALO BILLS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (56.5)

These are the league’s two highest-scoring offenses, and both will be looking to make statements here. Buffalo’s D has been good but has played above its head and will now encounter the ultimate challenge. Kansas City’s defense has been terrible and should give up 29-plus for a fifth consecutive week as this one flies over the total.

DETROIT LIONS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (49.5)

The Lions have been held to 17 or fewer points in three consecutive games, while there were just 21 points in Minnesota’s Week 4 matchup with the Cleveland Browns. This total is inflated by a strong but fluky performance from Detroit’s offense in Week 1 and Minnesota’s pre-Week 4 performances on that side of the ball. I don’t think we’re getting close to the 50s.

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (50)

Green Bay’s offense has been on fire the last three weeks, the Bengals have quietly put up 24-plus points in three of their four games, and the Packers’ defense is vulnerable. Cincinnati’s surprisingly strong defensive play explains why this one remains at 50 and isn’t higher, but that unit could be destined to come back to earth against the reigning MVP.

Archived Week 5 OVER UNDER picks article from Oct. 7, 2020

Last week’s record: 7-5-2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (44.5)

I know overs are all the rage right now because the NFL is off to its highest-scoring start in history, but here’s where there’s some potential value in an inflated total.

The Bears scored just 11 points against Indianapolis and the Tampa Bay defense is loaded with playmakers who should help it bounce back after a tough outing against the Los Angeles Chargers. Both teams will have trouble scoring 20 points here.

Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets (47.5)

The Cardinals defense just surrendered 31 points to a Carolina Panthers team that didn’t have superstar back Christian McCaffrey. That entire unit is a mess right now, while Sam Darnold and Co. at least showed some life on a Week 4 loss to the Denver Broncos.

With extra time to rest up, get healthier and prepare, look for the Jets to put up points, even if it’s in garbage time after their bad defense is hammered by Arizona’s talented (and now likely desperate) offensive attack. This one could push into the 60s.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (51.5)

I’m yet to fully trust the Bengals offense, and that poor pass protection unit could be in trouble against Baltimore’s fierce veteran defensive front. And while the Ravens offense could cause problems here — as it often does — it’s worth noting that the Cincinnati defense has fared fine in three of its first four outings.

This is a likely blowout of the 31-10 variety but I don’t see it coming close to the 50-point plateau.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (54)

The Cowboys defense can’t stop anybody right now, while the Dallas offense is too damn good to allow them to be defeated handily by an 0-4 opponent. So while Daniel Jones and Co. should have plenty of success against that depleted Dallas D, a unit that surrendered 36 points to the banged-up San Francisco 49ers two weeks ago and almost certain to be lit up again in this spot.

The over has hit by a wide margin in three consecutive Cowboys games and I don’t believe this total has fully caught up to that trend yet.

Brad Gagnon has been passionate about both sports and mass media since he was in diapers -- a passion that won't die until he's in them again. He was a lead contributor to an earlier incarnation of NationalFootballPost.com and was happy to return when new management revived the brand in 2020. Based in Toronto, he's covered the NFL since 2008 and has been a national NFL writer at Bleacher Report since 2012. He despises all 32 NFL teams equally but remains a fan of the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He can be reached at Brad@NationalFootballPost.com
Brad Gagnon has been passionate about both sports and mass media since he was in diapers -- a passion that won't die until he's in them again. He was a lead contributor to an earlier incarnation of NationalFootballPost.com and was happy to return when new management revived the brand in 2020. Based in Toronto, he's covered the NFL since 2008 and has been a national NFL writer at Bleacher Report since 2012. He despises all 32 NFL teams equally but remains a fan of the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He can be reached at Brad@NationalFootballPost.com

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