Maybe you’ve already got your picks in for Week 6 of the 2023 NFL regular season, but by focusing only on point spreads, moneylines or fantasy, you’re robbing yourself of potential opportunities to make money on over/unders.
San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns (35.5): Over
The Browns defense has been great and the offense won’t have Deshaun Watson, but this is still quite extreme considering that the 49ers have scored 30-plus points in every single game they’ve played this season. All it takes is something along the lines of 28-10 and you’ve hit the over here.
Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons (42): Over
Um, the Commanders defense has given up 33-plus points in four consecutive games. The Falcons aren’t great offensively but should be able to move the ball and put up points against that unit at home. Both teams should easily hit the 20s here.
New York Giants at Buffalo Bills (44): Under
Without Daniel Jones, I’m not sure the Giants are going to score at all in a tough prime-time road spot against a banged up but still stellar Buffalo defense. And as a result, I’d expect the Bills to eventually take their foot off the gas pedal. I’m watching for a 27-3-type final score here.
Archived Week 6 OVER UNDER picks article from Oct. 13, 2022
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers (44): UNDER
The Bucs defense has been stifling in all but one matchup this season, and that came against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Kenny Pickett and a Steelers squad that scored just three points last week in Buffalo could have trouble hitting the double digits, but the Tampa Bay offense hasn’t been in sync for much of this season either.
Pittsburgh has enough talent on defense to keep this one in the 40 range altogether, if not below.
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (44.5): OVER
Atlanta has put up 23-plus points in four of its five games, while San Francisco has averaged more than 30 points per game the last two weeks. The Falcons defense is awful despite half-decent numbers in terms of points allowed, but the bottom might fall out here.
As good as the 49ers’ defense is, this one should push the 50s.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (54): OVER
Come on. These teams averaged 68 combined points in their two meetings last season. Oddsmakers have to respect Buffalo’s No. 1-rated scoring defense, but we’re still talking about Patrick Mahomes and Co. Kansas City has scored 71 points the last two weeks against strong opponents.
It’s hard to imagine this one containing fewer than 60 points, let alone 55.
Week 6 OVER UNDER picks archived article from Oct. 17, 2021
2021 RECORD: 10-14
MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (46)
This is pushing it. The last two Vikings games have contained 36 or fewer points, while the Panthers still have the league’s third-ranked defense in terms of points allowed. Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota offense can be unpredictable, but I don’t trust him or Sam Darnold.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (55.5)
Speaking of lacking trust, I’m giving up on the supposed stacked Washington defense. The Chiefs are also a lost cause on that side of the ball, and I don’t think Vegas could push this total high enough as a result. You know Patrick Mahomes and Co. will be fired up to make a statement, but even if this is a blowout Washington should have some fight in garbage time at home. I’m thinking Chiefs 35, WFT 28 in a battle between the two worst defensive teams in football at the moment.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (52)
The Chargers are coming off an 89-point game, the Ravens a 56-point game. Both defenses are rather vulnerable, both quarterbacks are rather electric and there’s little reason to believe this won’t be a close shootout. Easy over.
CINCINNATI BENGALS AT DETROIT LIONS (47.5)
The Lions have consistently been good for no more than 14-17 points per week, while the Bengals have the league’s seventh-rated scoring defense. They could light up a weak Detroit D, but even that unit has been better on paper than it was to start the season. The last three Lions games and the last four Bengals games have all contained 47 or fewer points. I’m expecting those runs to continue here.
Archived Week 6 OVER UNDER picks article from Oct. 16, 2020
Last week’s record: 10-6-2
Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles (46.5)
The heavily favored Ravens have scored at least 27 points in all four of their wins, while every Eagles game this season has contained at least 44 points. Baltimore’s defense is strong and Philly’s offense has been a mess, but the Eagles are slowly getting healthier on that side of the ball. Baltimore should hit the 30 plateau but Philadelphia should be able to put up 20 points as this one flies over by at least a touchdown.