Oct 4, 2020; Paradise, Nevada, USA;  Buffalo Bills cornerback Josh Norman (29) forces a fumble by Las Vegas Raiders tight end Darren Waller (83) during the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Week 6 NFL OVER UNDER picks

Maybe you’ve already got your picks in for Week 6 of the 2023 NFL regular season, but by focusing only on point spreads, moneylines or fantasy, you’re robbing yourself of potential opportunities to make money on over/unders.

Here are several Week 6 NFL OVER UNDER picks (opening totals from Draft Kings) that are worthy of your attention. Check out the Week 6 NFL odds and matchup reports on every game as well.

San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns (35.5): Over

The Browns defense has been great and the offense won’t have Deshaun Watson, but this is still quite extreme considering that the 49ers have scored 30-plus points in every single game they’ve played this season. All it takes is something along the lines of 28-10 and you’ve hit the over here.

Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons (42): Over

Um, the Commanders defense has given up 33-plus points in four consecutive games. The Falcons aren’t great offensively but should be able to move the ball and put up points against that unit at home. Both teams should easily hit the 20s here.

New York Giants at Buffalo Bills (44): Under

Without Daniel Jones, I’m not sure the Giants are going to score at all in a tough prime-time road spot against a banged up but still stellar Buffalo defense. And as a result, I’d expect the Bills to eventually take their foot off the gas pedal. I’m watching for a 27-3-type final score here.


Archived Week 6 OVER UNDER picks article from Oct. 13, 2022

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers (44): UNDER

The Bucs defense has been stifling in all but one matchup this season, and that came against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Kenny Pickett and a Steelers squad that scored just three points last week in Buffalo could have trouble hitting the double digits, but the Tampa Bay offense hasn’t been in sync for much of this season either.

Pittsburgh has enough talent on defense to keep this one in the 40 range altogether, if not below.

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (44.5): OVER

Atlanta has put up 23-plus points in four of its five games, while San Francisco has averaged more than 30 points per game the last two weeks. The Falcons defense is awful despite half-decent numbers in terms of points allowed, but the bottom might fall out here.

As good as the 49ers’ defense is, this one should push the 50s.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (54): OVER

Come on. These teams averaged 68 combined points in their two meetings last season. Oddsmakers have to respect Buffalo’s No. 1-rated scoring defense, but we’re still talking about Patrick Mahomes and Co. Kansas City has scored 71 points the last two weeks against strong opponents.

It’s hard to imagine this one containing fewer than 60 points, let alone 55.


Week 6 OVER UNDER picks archived article from Oct. 17, 2021

2021 RECORD: 10-14


This is pushing it. The last two Vikings games have contained 36 or fewer points, while the Panthers still have the league’s third-ranked defense in terms of points allowed. Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota offense can be unpredictable, but I don’t trust him or Sam Darnold.


Speaking of lacking trust, I’m giving up on the supposed stacked Washington defense. The Chiefs are also a lost cause on that side of the ball, and I don’t think Vegas could push this total high enough as a result. You know Patrick Mahomes and Co. will be fired up to make a statement, but even if this is a blowout Washington should have some fight in garbage time at home. I’m thinking Chiefs 35, WFT 28 in a battle between the two worst defensive teams in football at the moment.


The Chargers are coming off an 89-point game, the Ravens a 56-point game. Both defenses are rather vulnerable, both quarterbacks are rather electric and there’s little reason to believe this won’t be a close shootout. Easy over.


The Lions have consistently been good for no more than 14-17 points per week, while the Bengals have the league’s seventh-rated scoring defense. They could light up a weak Detroit D, but even that unit has been better on paper than it was to start the season. The last three Lions games and the last four Bengals games have all contained 47 or fewer points. I’m expecting those runs to continue here.

Archived Week 6 OVER UNDER picks article from Oct. 16, 2020

Last week’s record: 10-6-2

Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles (46.5)

The heavily favored Ravens have scored at least 27 points in all four of their wins, while every Eagles game this season has contained at least 44 points. Baltimore’s defense is strong and Philly’s offense has been a mess, but the Eagles are slowly getting healthier on that side of the ball. Baltimore should hit the 30 plateau but Philadelphia should be able to put up 20 points as this one flies over by at least a touchdown.

Bet Rivers logo

Rated 5/5

100% Deposit Match Bonus up to $250

Respected and popular online sportsbook that made early entries into regulated states such as Illinois. It continues to seek licenses in new states as laws around betting sites open up. Easy deposits, excellent signup bonus and awesome football odds.

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (44)

The Bears have scored just 31 total points the last two weeks while the Panthers have surrendered just 17.7 points per game the last three weeks. Carolina’s offense has exceeded expectations without Christian McCaffrey of late, but that doesn’t feel overly sustainable against one of the league’s best defenses.

Look for this to be the fourth Bears game in a six-week span to fall short of 40 total points.

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (47)

I have no idea why this total is so high. The Bengals scored just three points last week against Baltimore and now face an even tougher defense. DeForest Buckner and Justin Houston should tee off on a terrible Cincinnati offensive line, and there’s little reason to believe an Indy offense that has scored just 42 points the last two weeks will suddenly put up 30-plus here. This one should fall short of 40.

Washington Football Team at New York Giants (43)

The hell? Washington has surrendered 30-plus points in four straight games and the Giants just combined for 71 with Dallas. Sure, the New York offense is unpredictable and the Washington offense has been a disaster, but both teams should easily score more than 20 points here. The over is a no-brainer.

Brad Gagnon has been passionate about both sports and mass media since he was in diapers -- a passion that won't die until he's in them again. He was a lead contributor to an earlier incarnation of NationalFootballPost.com and was happy to return when new management revived the brand in 2020. Based in Toronto, he's covered the NFL since 2008 and has been a national NFL writer at Bleacher Report since 2012. He despises all 32 NFL teams equally but remains a fan of the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He can be reached at Brad@NationalFootballPost.com

Bet Wk 6 OU

Rated 5/5

Upcoming Games

Dec 4th, 8:15 PM

Cincinnati +5.5 -114

Jacksonville -5.5 -114


Dec 7th, 8:15 PM

New England +6.5 -110

Pittsburgh -6.5 -110


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

Detroit -5.5 -116

Chicago +5.5 -116


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

Carolina +6.5 -103

New Orleans -6.5 -103


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

Tampa Bay +2.5 -106

Atlanta -2.5 -106


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

LA Rams +6.5 -118

Baltimore -6.5 -118


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

Indianapolis -0.5 -110

Cincinnati +0.5 -110


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

Jacksonville -2.5 -115

Cleveland +2.5 -115


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

Houston -5.5 -115

NY Jets +5.5 -115


Dec 10th, 4:05 PM

Minnesota +0.5 -115

Las Vegas -0.5 -115


Dec 10th, 4:05 PM

Seattle +10.5 -108

San Francisco -10.5 -108


Dec 10th, 4:25 PM

Buffalo +2.5 -125

Kansas City -2.5 -125


Dec 10th, 4:25 PM

Denver +3.5 +103

LA Chargers -3.5 +103


Dec 10th, 8:20 PM

Philadelphia +1.5 -110

Dallas -1.5 -110


Dec 11th, 8:15 PM

Tennessee +11.5 -111

Miami -11.5 -111


Dec 11th, 8:15 PM

Green Bay -5.5 -102

NY Giants +5.5 -102