We’ll be here to guide you with weekly picks against the spread every week, and we’re quite frankly killing it so far. Here are fresh takes, our lineup of Week 6 NFL picks against the spread, with odds as of mid-week.
Check out my OVER UNDER Week 6 predictions and Trend Dummy’s weekly deep dive into NFL betting trends. As always, watch line moves and check out the stats breakdowns on every game over here.
Cincinnati -3.5 @ NY Giants | Matchup Report
I feel like the sportsbooks are baiting me here. The Bengals offense has come alive, the Giants never score much at home, yet this line has stayed at 3.5 all week.
It feels like Cincy is serious this week about righting its season, but that extra half point is dangling as bait, why?? Cincy has won 10 of 11 games vs NFC teams and they ride an impressive 18-6 ATS streak in Sunday road games.
This just feels like a Bengals rout, so we are taking the bait and betting Cincy -3.5.
San Francisco -3.5 @ Seattle | Matchup Report
Another game where we will take the bait on small road favorites. The 49ers opened the season as Super Bowl favorites but have slumped amid injuries.
Seattle lost to the Giants for goodness sake and have lost 11 of 14 games as underdogs. The lookahead spread on this game was probably -6.5 to -7.5. Everyone keeps cheering for Brock Purdy to regress and fail but it won’t be Thursday night.
Cleveland +9.5 @ Philadelphia | Matchup Report
We don’t trust the Eagles with any points let alone 9.5. Sure they are coming off a bye and sure their OL is getting healthy, but they have been an erratic mess for two years now.
The Browns watched QB Deshaun Watson settle his 23rd lawsuit, while they await his 20th TD pass as a Brown. Cleveland isn’t as bad as they have shown and the Eagles have fail cover 5 straight as favorites and ride a 2-9 ATS streak, They should win but can’t be trusted to do so by double digits.
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Archived Week 6 NFL picks article from Oct. 16, 2023
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Chicago Bears: Bears
The Bears hung with the Broncos in their last home game and just crushed Washington on the road. They’re also coming off extra rest against a downtrodden, overrated opponent that is missing its best offensive player. Chicago should be favored here.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at New York Jets: Eagles
The Jets have played relatively well at home this year against some solid opponents, while the Eagles have been far from dominant despite their record. But I think this will be a correction game in both respects, as the Sauce Gardner-less Jets get pounded.
Detroit Lions (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Buccaneers
I know there isn’t a lot of hype surrounding the Bucs, but they are 3-1 and coming off their bye week at home here. This line is a lot of Detroit hype, but the Lions may be due for a wakeup call. I believe this might be their first regulation loss of the year.
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Archived NFL Week 6 picks article from Oct. 1, 2022
Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) at New York Giants: Ravens
Are the Giants really this decent? Are the Ravens really this unreliable? This feels like a correction game for both teams, as the league’s third-ranked squad in terms of DVOA gets it together with a victory by a touchdown or more.
San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Atlanta Falcons: 49ers
All three San Francisco wins have come by at least 15 points, and a Falcons team coming back to earth is due for its first blowout loss of the season.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-2): Jaguars
I’d love to be getting a full field goal if possible here, but the Jaguars are simply a much better team than Indianapolis right now and the Jags always play Indy tough.
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks: Cardinals
Another road squad, this time with the much more talented Cards laying less than a field against a Seattle team that has been playing way over its head. Kyler Murray will go to town on the Seahawks’ putrid defense.
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs: Chiefs
Buffalo has the talent edge here, but not by nearly enough to be laying nearly a field goal on the road against one of the toughest opponents in the NFL. Try to get Kansas City +3 if possible, though.
NFL Week 6 Picks archived article from Oct. 17, 2021
2021 RECORD: 39-40-1
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-6.5) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: EAGLES
The Bucs went just 1-3 on less than a full week’s rest last season, with Tom Brady throwing more interceptions than touchdown passes in the three losses. With just three days’ to prepare for a road game in a tough environment against a desperate team, they’ll have trouble pulling away here.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: DOLPHINS
The Jags have lost 20 in a row and have fallen by double-digit margins in eight of their last nine games. Meanwhile, the well-coached Dolphins really need this to save their season. They won’t cut it close.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3): RAVENS
I struggled with this one, mainly because both teams have enjoyed magical starts. I trust the Ravens a little bit more with only three points on the line at home, but I wouldn’t put money on them on short rest after an exhausting overtime victory Monday night.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-1.5) AT CAROLINA PANTHERS: PANTHERS
What have the Vikings done to merit being a favorite on the road against a team with a winning record? Sam Darnold might not be trustworthy, but the Panthers are the slightly better team, especially if Christian McCaffrey returns. They should be laying points here.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-4.5) AT CHICAGO BEARS: PACKERS
The Packers have won and covered comfortably in four consecutive matchups with the Bears but are only laying 4.5 points? I’m not overthinking this one.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3.5) AT DETROIT LIONS: LIONS
The Lions would be 2-3 if not for two miracle field goals from the Ravens in Week 3 and the Vikings in Week 5. They fight hard for Dan Campbell, especially at home, and Cincinnati has run into some injury issues as well. This is a field-goal game.
HOUSTON TEXANS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-9.5): TEXANS
The Texans have been more competitive than expected, while the Colts are coming off a brutal overtime loss Monday night. I’m not sure they have the energy or the firepower to pull away against an opponent that is quite familiar with them.
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-9.5) AT NEW YORK GIANTS: RAMS
Too many injuries for the Giants, and the Rams have performed very well on the road this season. This should be a double-digit road win for a team that looks like a Super Bowl contender and is on extra rest after a Thursday night win in Seattle.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-6.5) AT WASHINGTON: WFT
The Chiefs are just 3-13 against the spread in their last 16 games, and Washington is looking to save its season at home. The Kansas City defense truly sucks, but the WFT has too much talent on that side of the ball to keep struggling. They’ll hang here.
ARIZONA CARDINALS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3): BROWNS
This was my other big struggle this week. The Browns still have the slightly better roster, but they’ve been quite a mess and are a lot less healthy than Arizona. At home and coming off a loss, I’ll roll the dice on them against an opponent that is due for a letdown. But I’d also prefer to avoid this one.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS AT DENVER BRONCOS (-3.5): RAIDERS
Ditto for this one because we have no idea how the Raiders will react to Jon Gruden’s sudden departure. I’m not touching that hook, though. Not in a divisional game between two flawed teams.
DALLAS COWBOYS (-3.5) AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: PATRIOTS
Bill Belichick isn’t starting a season 0-4 at home. He’ll find a way to beat the Cowboys, who are also due for a letdown in a tough spot against a desperate team.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-5): STEELERS
One more to avoid, mainly because we haven’t seen the Seahawks without Russell Wilson in the starting quarterback role in nearly a decade. The safe bet is on Pittsburgh taking care of business at home. After all, we’re talking about Geno Smith here.
BUFFALO BILLS (-5.5) AT TENNESSEE TITANS: TITANS
Tennessee is a talented veteran team at home. They’ll be ready for the Bills, who can’t keep beating everybody by double-digit margins. They hammered Buffalo at this very site last season. That won’t likely happen again, but this should be a close game.
Archived Week 6 NFL Picks article from Gagnon on Oct. 16, 2020
2020 RECORD: 45-27-2
ATLANTA FALCONS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-4): VIKINGS
The Falcons players seemed to like Dan Quinn, so I’m not expecting the kind of rally we saw from the Houston Texans after Bill O’Brien was fired. Julio Jones is still hurt, the Falcons don’t have the pass defense to slow down Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, and, as a result, this number isn’t high enough.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-7.5) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: RAVENS
Each of Baltimore’s last seven victories have come by 14-plus points. When they win, they win big. And there’s little reason to expect a different result considering the current state of the Eagles.
CHICAGO BEARS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (-1.5): BEARS
I don’t believe in the Bears, but I don’t trust the Panthers enough to lay points with that no-name defense and Christian McCaffrey-less offense against an opponent that is 4-1. Chicago should be able to eke out another close win here.
