Week 6 NFL Picks: Brad Gagnon

We’ll be here to guide you with weekly picks against the spread every week, and we’re quite frankly killing it so far. Here are 14 fresh takes, our lineup of Week 6 NFL picks against the spread, with odds as of mid-week coming from Draft Kings and FanDuel.

Check out my OVER UNDER Week 6 predictions and Trend Dummy’s weekly deep dive into NFL betting trends. As always, watch line moves and check out the stats breakdowns on every game over here.

2021 RECORD: 39-40-1

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-6.5) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: EAGLES

The Bucs went just 1-3 on less than a full week’s rest last season, with Tom Brady throwing more interceptions than touchdown passes in the three losses. With just three days’ to prepare for a road game in a tough environment against a desperate team, they’ll have trouble pulling away here.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: DOLPHINS

The Jags have lost 20 in a row and have fallen by double-digit margins in eight of their last nine games. Meanwhile, the well-coached Dolphins really need this to save their season. They won’t cut it close.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3): RAVENS

I struggled with this one, mainly because both teams have enjoyed magical starts. I trust the Ravens a little bit more with only three points on the line at home, but I wouldn’t put money on them on short rest after an exhausting overtime victory Monday night.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-1.5) AT CAROLINA PANTHERS: PANTHERS

What have the Vikings done to merit being a favorite on the road against a team with a winning record? Sam Darnold might not be trustworthy, but the Panthers are the slightly better team, especially if Christian McCaffrey returns. They should be laying points here.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-4.5) AT CHICAGO BEARS: PACKERS

The Packers have won and covered comfortably in four consecutive matchups with the Bears but are only laying 4.5 points? I’m not overthinking this one.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3.5) AT DETROIT LIONS: LIONS

The Lions would be 2-3 if not for two miracle field goals from the Ravens in Week 3 and the Vikings in Week 5. They fight hard for Dan Campbell, especially at home, and Cincinnati has run into some injury issues as well. This is a field-goal game.

HOUSTON TEXANS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-9.5): TEXANS

The Texans have been more competitive than expected, while the Colts are coming off a brutal overtime loss Monday night. I’m not sure they have the energy or the firepower to pull away against an opponent that is quite familiar with them.

LOS ANGELES RAMS (-9.5) AT NEW YORK GIANTS: RAMS

Too many injuries for the Giants, and the Rams have performed very well on the road this season. This should be a double-digit road win for a team that looks like a Super Bowl contender and is on extra rest after a Thursday night win in Seattle.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-6.5) AT WASHINGTON: WFT

The Chiefs are just 3-13 against the spread in their last 16 games, and Washington is looking to save its season at home. The Kansas City defense truly sucks, but the WFT has too much talent on that side of the ball to keep struggling. They’ll hang here.

ARIZONA CARDINALS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3): BROWNS

This was my other big struggle this week. The Browns still have the slightly better roster, but they’ve been quite a mess and are a lot less healthy than Arizona. At home and coming off a loss, I’ll roll the dice on them against an opponent that is due for a letdown. But I’d also prefer to avoid this one.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS AT DENVER BRONCOS (-3.5): RAIDERS

Ditto for this one because we have no idea how the Raiders will react to Jon Gruden’s sudden departure. I’m not touching that hook, though. Not in a divisional game between two flawed teams.

DALLAS COWBOYS (-3.5) AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: PATRIOTS

Bill Belichick isn’t starting a season 0-4 at home. He’ll find a way to beat the Cowboys, who are also due for a letdown in a tough spot against a desperate team.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-5): STEELERS

One more to avoid, mainly because we haven’t seen the Seahawks without Russell Wilson in the starting quarterback role in nearly a decade. The safe bet is on Pittsburgh taking care of business at home. After all, we’re talking about Geno Smith here.

BUFFALO BILLS (-5.5) AT TENNESSEE TITANS: TITANS

Tennessee is a talented veteran team at home. They’ll be ready for the Bills, who can’t keep beating everybody by double-digit margins. They hammered Buffalo at this very site last season. That won’t likely happen again, but this should be a close game.

Archived Week 6 NFL Picks article from Gagnon on Oct. 16, 2020

2020 RECORD: 45-27-2

ATLANTA FALCONS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-4): VIKINGS

The Falcons players seemed to like Dan Quinn, so I’m not expecting the kind of rally we saw from the Houston Texans after Bill O’Brien was fired. Julio Jones is still hurt, the Falcons don’t have the pass defense to slow down Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, and, as a result, this number isn’t high enough.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-7.5) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: RAVENS

Each of Baltimore’s last seven victories have come by 14-plus points. When they win, they win big. And there’s little reason to expect a different result considering the current state of the Eagles.

CHICAGO BEARS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (-1.5): BEARS

I don’t believe in the Bears, but I don’t trust the Panthers enough to lay points with that no-name defense and Christian McCaffrey-less offense against an opponent that is 4-1. Chicago should be able to eke out another close win here.

I know this feels like a lot of points considering the Jekyll and Hyde act we’ve seen from Indy this season, but Cincinnati is headed in the wrong direction from multiple standpoints. The Bengals simply can’t protect rookie quarterback Joe Burrow, and I can’t see it suddenly happening against DeForest Buckner and Justin Houston.

If you disagree and want a justification for betting the Bengals, Deeg has it over here as he has more faith in Burrow than do I.

DENVER BRONCOS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-10): PATRIOTS

This also feels like a lot of points at first, but that COVID-19-based delay could help the Pats, who should have Cam Newton back under center. Plus, it’s extra time for the mastermind Bill Belichick. With additional prep time last season, the Pats outscored their opponents by a combined margin of 83-13.

CLEVELAND BROWNS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3): STEELERS

I’ve gone back and forth on this one and considered Cleveland at +3.5, but ultimately it’s hard to turn down a chance to lay just three points with a 4-0 team at home. The Steelers are so damn strong on both sides of the ball, and I still don’t trust an injured Baker Mayfield or Cleveland’s shallow defense.

Another game that Deeg and I see differently, see his reasons for backing the Browns.

DETROIT LIONS (-3.5) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: JAGUARS

No way I’d put a dollar on this game, but with a gun to my head there’s really no way I’d lay a field goal plus a hook with Matt Patricia and his untrustworthy squad. Jacksonville has nothing to lose and should hang around as a result.

HOUSTON TEXANS AT TENNESSEE TITANS (-3.5): TEXANS

The Texans look rejuvenated, they have one of the best quarterbacks in the sport, and now they’re getting 3.5 points from a familiar opponent that is operating on short rest. I don’t think Tennessee’s banged-up defensive front can slow down Deshaun Watson, and I think Tennessee’s weird few weeks will catch up with it here. Houston might win outright.

WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM AT NEW YORK GIANTS (-2.5): GIANTS

The WFT has been absolutely smoked in four consecutive weeks, while the Giants are actually hanging with teams despite the fact they’re also a damn bad team. The G-Men have three one-score losses this season and are due for a win at home against an opponent in shambles. It’s weird they’re not laying even a full field goal.

NEW YORK JETS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (-9.5): DOLPHINS

The Jets are 0-5 against the spread this season and I’m not picking them in their current state, even if they’re getting nearly double-digit points from 2019’s worst team. The Dolphins have turned a serious corner and the Jets don’t have the offensive talent to exploit Miami’s poor run defense.

There are all kinds of negative trends following the Jets, but a few important ones dogging the Dolphins if this game closes at double digits.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-1) AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: PACKERS

The Packers got a lot healthier during their bye week and have had two weeks to study tape of a talented but flawed Bucs squad. Look for Aaron Rodgers to exploit all of it in another Green Bay victory. Why is this basically a pick’em? Green Bay has the ability to laugh at Tampa Bay’s blitzes and the backfield talent to run screens against a superb run defense.

LOS ANGELES RAMS (-3.5) AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: 49ERS

I might regret this one, but the 49ers are getting a little more healthy and a lot more desperate. They’re well-coached and very familiar with Los Angeles, and I think they can limit Aaron Donald’s damage. That’s more than half the battle. They’ll keep this close at home. See my full report on this game.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-4) AT BUFFALO BILLS: CHIEFS

Wrong place, wrong time for Buffalo. Kansas City is more rested and even more likely to be on a mission to make a statement following its first loss in 11 months. The defending champions have won six consecutive prime-time games by an average margin of 14.2 points, and this is a terrible matchup for the Bills. Patrick Mahomes could have a field day considering Buffalo’s injuries on defense, and the Bills don’t have the running game to exploit a bad K.C. run D.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-2) AT DALLAS COWBOYS: CARDINALS

Big week for favorites, but this one was admittedly a tough call. The Cowboys could rally around Andy Dalton against a defense that just lost Chandler Jones and wasn’t good to begin with, but I just can’t see Dallas slowing down Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins with that gutted defense. Cards win a close one, but they’re only laying two.

Good luck.