Oct 4, 2020; Detroit, Michigan, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) throws a pass against the Detroit Lio during the second quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Week 7 Trends: Giants, Saints, 49ers

NFL bettors get to try something they have only had the chance to experience once in the past 40 years here in Week 7. That is, bet against the New York Jets as double-digit home underdogs.

We are not saying it will be the last time it happens even this season, but the Jets getting 11 points at home to Buffalo is big news (see matchup stats here). It happened just once back in 2018 when a Tom Brady vs Josh McCown battle ended predictably. Other than that, our trusty NFL database didn’t find any other instances where the Jets were disrespected so horribly.

On the other side of the same game, another rarity – the Buffalo Bills as double-digit road favorites. That hasn’t happened since 2004 and just five times since 1980.

In other betting trends news NOT associated with that game, New Orleans looks to extend its crazy October ATS run and several teams certainly have not found lucky Week 7 to be very lucky, as they ride horrendous ATS streaks. Opening NFL odds courtesy of BetRivers and SugarHouse.

Thursday Night Football Betting Trends

NY Giants +6 at Philadelphia Total 45 at SugarHouse and BetRivers | Matchup Report

Philadelphia has won seven in a row SU and 20 of 24 vs the New York Giants, who have lost 13 in a row SU as underdogs. But buyer beware here for Eagles fans hoping their late surge against the Ravens signaled good things to come. Neither Zach Ertz nor Miles Sanders will play and the Giants have been making money like crazy a) on the road and b) as underdogs.

NY Giants are 0-13 SU in their last 13 games as the underdog.

NY Giants have covered 6 straight on the road and are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games

UNDER is 8-3 NY Giants’ last 11 games at Philadelphia

UNDER is 8-3 NY Giants’ last 11 games played in Week 7.

UNDER is 8-3 Philadelphia’s last 11 home games.

UNDER is 20-7 Philadelphia’s last 27 Week 7 games

Philadelphia is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games played in Week 7.

Philadelphia is 13-5 SU in their last 18 Thursday games, including 10-4 ATS run past 14

Philly is just 3-12-1 ATS past 16 game as home favorites

NY Giants are 9-1 ATS past 10 as road dog of 6 or more points

Carolina +7.5 at New Orleans Total 51.5 | Matchup Report

New Orleans has won 14 straight games in October SU and are 21-3 ATS in their last 24 games in this month. Why? Who cares, we just keeping betting it and pocketing the cash. They are also 8-0 ATS in Week 7. Why? Who cares, we just keeping betting it and pocketing the cash. They are also 9-2 ATS after a bye week. The anti-trend here is the Panthers 15-5 ATS their past 20 trips to the Superdome.

OVER is 10-2 Carolina’s last 12 games against New Orleans

Carolina 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games at New Orleans

Saints are 9-2 ATS past 11 seasons after a bye week

OVER is 10-2 New Orleans’ last 13 games as the favorite

Green Bay -3 at Houston Total 56 | Matchup Report

A team that seems to love Week 7 (Packers 9-2 ATS) against a team on a skid through seven games (Texans 1-6 ATS). Houston heads into a bye week and has been a money-maker in this situation (8-1 ATS past 9 seasons). The contrarian trend view is Houston has lost six in a row ATS as underdogs.

Green Bay is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played in Week 7.

Houston is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games.

Houston is 2-7 ATS past 9 as home dogs including six straight ATS losses as dogs.

Detroit +3 at Atlanta Total 56.5 | Matchup Report

The Falcons have been home favorites three times this season and lost outright each time. Can that trend change after a big win last week? They have beat up on the Lions over the years, but are also one of those unlucky Week 7 teams (0-6 ATS past six seasons).

Atlanta is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against Detroit.

Atlanta is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games played in October.

Detroit is 1-13 SU in their last 14 games as the underdog.

Detroit is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 conference games.

Atlanta is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as the favorite.

Cleveland -3 at Cincinnati Total 51.5 | Matchup Report

Look at the list below and try to find a positive trend. For either team. Home dog players will take the Bengals. Pick the best team players will take the Browns. Cleveland, predictably, has a terrible Week 7 run, losing seven straight.

Cleveland lost 6 of past 7 SU as road favorites.

Cincinnati is 1-12 SU in their last 13 divisional games.

Cincinnati is 2-22-1 SU in their last 25 games as the underdog.

Cleveland is 3-32 SU in their last 35 Sunday road games.

Cleveland is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 vs Cincinnati.

Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games.

Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 divisional games.

Cleveland is 0-7 SU in their last 7 games played in Week 7.

Pittsburgh -2 at Tennessee Total 52.5 | Matchup Report

Tennessee has been tough within the AFC, going 12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS over 14 games. The Steelers are 10-1 SU in their past 11 October games, so that bodes well. The rest of the trends is like watching a see-saw: over, under, over, under. Good luck with that. Check out a fun breakdown on the fact two unbeaten teams meet late in the season. It’s a small sample size but may point to underdog and UNDER.

OVER is 13-1 Tennessee’s last 14 games played on a Sunday.

UNDER is 13-2 Pittsburgh’s last 15 road games.

OVER is 6-1 Pittsburgh’s last 7 games at Tennessee.

UNDER is 16-6 Pittsburgh’s last 22 conference games

OVER is 14-4 Tennessee’s last 18 games.

UNDER is 7-1 past 8 Steelers games as road favorites

OVER is 12-3 Tennessee’s last 15 home games.

San Francisco +2.5 at New England Total 45.5 | Matchup Report

The Patriots have won 14 of 15 Week 7 games, but that was on Tom Brady’s watch. The 49ers are wallet-bleeding 1-11-1 ATS in Week 7s, but are tough as a road team and as an underdog.

New England is 14-1 SU in their last 15 games played in Week 7.

New England is 20-3 SU in their last 23 Sunday home games.

San Francisco is 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games played in Week 7.

San Francisco is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on the road.

San Francisco is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as the underdog.

Jacksonville +8 at LA Chargers Total 49.5 | Matchup Report

The Jaguars come off a bye week and are 7-2-1 ATS past 10 seasons in this situation. The Chargers have been bad at home and bad as favorites (2-8-1 ATS on both counts).

LA Chargers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against Jacksonville (including 8 straight)

LA Chargers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games at home

LA Chargers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games when playing as the favorite

Tampa Bay -3 at Las Vegas Total 53.5 | Matchup Report

The Raiders have lost badly after their bye week the past three seasons. There are lots of OVER trends here.

OVER is 15-3 Tampa Bay’s last 18 games played on a Sunday.

OVER is 20-8 Tampa Bay’s last 28 road games.

Raiders played 7 straight OVERs vs conference foes

Raiders played 5 straight OVERs as home underdogs

Tampa Bay is 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games played in October.

Tampa Bay is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in Week 7.

Dallas -1 at Washington Total 46.5 | Matchup Report

What a mess. Dallas is 15-6 ATS in divisional play, while Washington is the exact opposite 6-15 ATS in divisional play. We can’t in good conscience pick a side or a total, but here are the trends.

Washington is 1-11 SU past 12 divisional games.

Washington is 2-13 SU past 15 home games

Dallas is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.

OVER is 8-1 past nine meetings

Dallas is 5-1 ATS past 6 games at Washington

Dallas is 1-8 ATS past 9 games as the favorite.

UNDER is 9-1 Washington’s last 10 games played in October

Washington is 2-11 SU past 13 games as home dogs

Buffalo -11 at NY Jets Total 48 | Matchup Report

As mentioned at the top, these are historic numbers for both teams and the Jet may be historically bad. This is a big road number for a team unaccustomed to big road spreads and coming off consecutive losses. There are also terrible in Week7 for whatever reason. The OVER may be the play.

Buffalo is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in Week 7.

OVER is 25-10 Buffalo’s last 35 games as the favorite

OVER is 11-3 NY Jets’ last 14 games played in Week 7.

NY Jets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games

NY Jets are 3-12 ATS past 15 divisional games

Seattle -3 at Arizona Total | Matchup Report

Arizona holds an overall edge vs the Seahawks (5-1-1 ATS past 7 meetings) but its 5-1-1 ATS for Seattle in games played at Arizona. Seattle is also a money maker on the road in October.

Seattle is 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 road games.

Seattle is 2-6 ATS past 8 divisional games

Seattle 8-2 ATS past 10 October road games

Kansas City at Denver Total | Matchup Report

At +9.5, this is currently the second biggest regular season home underdog line for Denver since 1980. They closed +10.5 Oct 12, 1987 and upset the Raiders 30-14. How many of you recall the QB duel between Vince Evans and Ken Karcher?

UNDER is 11-1 Denver’s last 12 divisional games.

Kansas City is 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games

Kansas City won 9 straight and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against Denver.

Kansas City is on 6-0 run at Denver.

Denver is 15-6 ATS past 21 games as the underdog.

UNDER is 9-2 past 11 games when Broncos are home dogs

Monday Night

Chicago at LA Rams Total | Matchup Report

The Bears cover on Mondays, the Rams don’t. But they do clobber conference opponents.

Chicago is 7-3 ATS past 10 games vs LA Rams.

Chicago is 9-2 ATS past 11 MNF games on the road.

Chicago is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games played on a Monday.

LA Rams are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 conference games.

LA Rams are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games played on a Monday.

UNDER is 10-2 LA Rams’ last 12 games as the favorite

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.