Week 7 Picks – Raiders, Seahawks, Broncos

We’ll be here to guide you with weekly picks against the spread on key games throughout the 2023 regular season. Here are a handful for Week 7 with lines courtesy of Draft Kings Sportsbook.

Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) at Chicago Bears: Raiders

Las Vegas is playing decent football while the 1-5 Bears are basically toast sans Justin Fields for another week. The Raiders won’t miss Jimmy Garoppolo close to as much as Chicago will miss Fields. It’s wild they’re giving up less than a field goal.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5): Seahawks

In Seattle’s previous matchups with weak opponents, it posted double-digit victories over the Panthers and Giants. I know that was a rough one in Cincinnati, but now they’re back home for an opponent that still doesn’t have Kyler Murray and has lost three straight games by 14-plus points. I’m expecting a blowout.

Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Denver Broncos: Broncos

Denver continues to insist the season isn’t over, and this home game against a mediocre team with a struggling quarterback is the Broncos’ final chance to prove that. This squad is too talented to keep losing the way it has, and it has at least benefited from extra time to prepare for Jordan Love and Co. I’ll take the points with the desperate home side.

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Archived Week 7 NFL picks article from Oct. 21, 2022

Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5): Bengals

Cincinnati is just 3.5 points better than Atlanta at a neutral site? That’s way off. Getting the Bengals for less than a touchdown is a no-brainer. The defending AFC champs have won three of four and Atlanta is still one of the least talented teams in football.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5): Titans

Tennessee by a field goal or more makes sense, but it’s surprising this isn’t an even -3. The Titans are ranked 12 full spots ahead of Indy in terms of DVOA as they ride a three-game winning streak. At home, I’ll definitely give the points.

New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-1): Broncos

I know Denver has been a mess but I again think we’re this line is the result of overthinking. The talent gap is large, and Denver is basically in a moneyline spot at home with Russell Wilson destined to find his groove? Craziness. We’re also going anti-trend with the streaking Jets, who have to produce a dud eventually. This spot makes sense.

Kansas City Chiefs (-2) at San Francisco 49ers: Chiefs

Loving the low-point faves this week, especially when the talent gap is there. The Chiefs are still the Chiefs and the 49ers just looked so damn bad in Atlanta last week.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (-7): Steelers

The Steelers are not a good team but they did just beat the Bucs, and even if Tua Tagovailoa is good to go, he might not have left tackle Terron Armstead. Pittsburgh can at least keep it close against a team that has lost three in a row.

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Week 7 NFL picks archived article from Oct. 24, 2021

Check the Week 7 NFL picks here for a quick analysis and prediction on every game. Odds midweek courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, official betting partner of the NFL and home to some  generous creative bonuses for new customers.

And visit the NFL odds and matchup pages here at NFP for line updates and full statistical breakdowns of every game, every week.

Week 7 NFL picks

2021 RECORD: 45-48-1

DENVER BRONCOS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-2 at FanDuel): BROWNS

I was actually on the Broncos here when they were getting a field goal and a hook. Now, I love the value we’re getting for the Browns at home in what might feel like a must-win game against an opponent riding a three-game losing streak.

CINCINNATI BENGALS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (-6.5): BENGALS

The Ravens stomp on bad teams but the Bengals no longer qualify as bad. In fact, they aren’t far off of Baltimore’s caliber. The Ravens won impressively last week, but don’t forget that they were lucky to beat the Indianapolis Colts at home one week prior.

WASHINGTON AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7.5): WASHINGTON

I’m still not giving up on the WFT and their stacked defense, and the Packers have just one blowout win this season. This should remain close.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-2.5) AT MIAMI DOLPHINS: DOLPHINS

I don’t trust either team but the Falcons laying points on the road against a superior and desperate Dolphins team? No way.

NEW YORK JETS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7): PATRIOTS

The Patriots pounded Gang Green last time out in New York. Now they’re at home and trying to save their season. No way this one is remotely close. I really can’t believe this line.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3) AT NEW YORK GIANTS: PANTHERS

I also had trepidation about laying a field goal on the road with a Panthers team that has fallen back to earth with three consecutive losses, but the Giants are an injury-ravaged mess right now and Carolina’s defense is good enough to bounce back in this spot. I’ll risk it.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-5.5) AT TENNESSEE TITANS: CHIEFS

The Chiefs put it all together in the second half of their Week 6 matchup with Washington, and you get the feeling they’ll start to dominate now. It’s scary to lay 5.5 points against a team led by Derrick Henry, especially considering Kansas City’s bad run defense, but I also think the Titans could suffer a letdown after an exhausting Monday night victory over the Buffalo Bills.

DETROIT LIONS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-14.5): RAMS

I’ve gone back and forth on this one, but the ship appears to be sinking too quickly in Detroit and the Rams are operating on extra rest. I wouldn’t bet it, but L.A. should win handily at home.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-3): EAGLES

The Jon Gruden fiasco is likely to eventually do a number on the Raiders, who were awful at home two weeks ago in a loss to the Chicago Bears. A three-point Raiders win is the most likely outcome here, but I’ll roll the dice on the team on more rest and in less disarray with Lane Johnson returning.

HOUSTON TEXANS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (-17.5): CARDINALS

This is daunting because the backdoor could always be open with a line like this. The Cards have never been a three-score favorite in team history. The Texans have lost four games by double-digit margins already and it would be surprising if they stuck around at all with Davis Mills here.

CHICAGO BEARS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-12): BEARS

The Bucs are just 2-4 against the spread, and their banged-up secondary remains vulnerable. This means a lot to the Bears, so I’ll take the points and hope for a backdoor cover in the worst-case scenario.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-4.5): COLTS

Both of these teams are banged up and untrustworthy right now, but if not for a wild Ravens comeback two weeks ago, the Colts would be riding a three-game winning streak. Why are they getting 4.5 points from a Jimmy Garoppolo-led 49ers team that hasn’t won in impressive fashion all season?

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-4.5 at FanDuel) AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: SEAHAWKS

If the Pittsburgh Steelers needed overtime to beat the Russell Wilson-less Seahawks in Pittsburgh, I’m not laying 4.5 with the inconsistent, unreliable and somewhat depleted Saints on the road. This is a huge game for a veteran Seattle team, and Geno Smith isn’t a total wreck. They’ll at least make this a field-goal game.

Archived Week 7 NFL picks article from Oct. 22, 2020

2020 RECORD: 51-35-2

The Giants defense hasn’t been bad at all, the Eagles offense is a depleted mess and I don’t trust Carson Wentz to cover more than about a field goal. With a limited home-field advantage, I’m not laying 4.5 with Philly and the Giants road and dog trends are impressive lately.

BUFFALO BILLS (-13.5) AT NEW YORK JETS: BILLS

This is a crazy-high spread. The highest for the Bills on the road in the last quarter-century, in fact. But how can anyone trust a Jets team that has practically thrown in the towel with an 0-6 ATS record and six losses by nine-plus points? Can’t possibly roll with Gang Green at this point, even if oddsmakers are trying to juice this thing.

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-7.5): SAINTS

Not having Christian McCaffrey is eventually going to catch up with the Panthers, who don’t have the defensive talent to keep up with Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara. The Saints should also have Michael Thomas back in a home game that could become an old-fashioned Superdome blowout with some fans in the stands.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3) AT CINCINNATI BENGALS: BENGALS

The Bengals’ pass-protection unit hung in against a tough Indianapolis Colts defensive front and there’s not a lot of depth beyond Myles Garrett up front for the Browns. I think Cincinnati will have learned from a September loss to Cleveland and will keep this damn close. The Cincy defense is a problem but I’m not sure an injured Baker Mayfield can exploit that.

DALLAS COWBOYS AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (-1): WASHINGTON

The Cowboys offensive line is even more of a disaster than it was before and Washington’s defensive front looks primed to rock with Chase Young getting healthier, Montez Sweat coming on and Jonathan Allen looking strong as well. Washington should at least be laying a field goal at home.

DETROIT LIONS AT ATLANTA FALCONS (-2.5): FALCONS

I don’t feel good about either team, or this pick, but the Lions are super banged up and Atlanta seems to have life post-Dan Quinn. There’s little reason the Falcons shouldn’t be laying at least a field goal at home.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3.5) AT HOUSTON TEXANS: TEXANS

The Packers were a disaster without left tackle David Bakhtiari last week and he might still be out in Week 7. Meanwhile, the Texans have been competitive since firing Bill O’Brien. Deshaun Watson should enable Houston to keep this within a field goal at home.

Losing star linebacker Devin Bush and another injury to guard David DeCastro could be problematic for the Steelers on the road. This should be a close game but Tennessee might be better-equipped to deal with the loss of left tackle Taylor Lewan. Titans by a field goal at home.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3.5) AT ARIZONA CARDINALS: SEAHAWKS

The Seahawks have covered the spread just once in their last seven meetings with Arizona, but now the Cards are going on short rest and the Seahawks have had two weeks to prepare. I’d try to buy back half a point to be safe here, but Seattle seems like a safe bet. The Seahawks have the talent up front to contain Kyler Murray, and I still don’t believe in Arizona’s defense.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-7.5): CHARGERS

The Chargers are coming off a bye, so rookie sensation Justin Herbert has had some time to prepare for the league’s worst pass defense. That could be dangerous. The Jags have lost four straight games by eight-plus points, and that should become five in a row here.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-9.5) AT DENVER BRONCOS: BRONCOS

The Chiefs have been outscored in divisional matchups thus far in 2020, and the Broncos are quietly 4-1 against the spread. Denver might also get A.J. Bouye back to deal with Patrick Mahomes, while K.C.’s weak run defense could have trouble controlling a solid Broncos running game. Denver will hang around.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-1.5): 49ERS

This is scary because Bill Belichick will do everything in his power to keep the Pats from falling to 2-4, but the 49ers — even in their current depleted state — are so much stronger than New England. I’ll take Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy Garoppolo over Belichick and Cam Newton right now.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-4) AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: BUCS

Even if the COVID-19-impacted Raiders offensive line is able to participate in this game, Tampa Bay’s fantastic run defense is likely to shut down Josh Jacobs and put it all on Derek Carr. That’s not ideal, and Bucs back Ronald Jones II is heating up just in time to face a bad run defense. Would prefer this be a three-point spread but I’m still on Tampa. The talent gap is glaring.

CHICAGO BEARS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-6): BEARS

Why the hell are the Rams laying six points with limited home-field advantage? There will be no fans present, Chicago’s defense is superb and the 5-1 Bears have a ton of fight in them. Look closely and the Rams have been extremely flat the last four weeks. This should be close to a pick’em.