Dec 29, 2019; Baltimore, Maryland, USA;  Baltimore Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey (44) during the first quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Week 8 NFL Betting Trends: Steelers Ravens UNDER

The biggest point spread in Kansas City Chiefs history and possibly the biggest point spread in New York Jets history could happen in the same Week 8 matchup.

KC opened as 19.5-point favorites, by far the biggest in team history (since 1980 anyway when our database begins). The Jets were dogs of 21 and 20.5 in years past, so 21.5 would be a record if bettors push this line upwards. There are trends however that suggest the Chiefs can’t be trusted with a super big spread, while the Jets have covered both times in this situation.

Elsewhere, more UNDER trends than you can shake a betting stick at in the Pittsburgh-Baltimore battle, which will further shake out the Super Bowl 55 future odds situation. And the Falcons, despite their late-game collapses, seem to have all the betting angles working in their favor as they visit Carolina in the Week 8 Thursday Nighter.

All odds courtesy of BetRivers and SugarHouse as of Tuesday Oct. 27.

Thursday Night Football Trends

Atlanta +2.5 @ Carolina Total 49 | Matchup Report

A battle of third-rated road passing offense and second-best home passing defense. Historically, there are lots of streaks favoring the Atlanta Falcons here and lots of recent bias to fade the Panthers as favorites, on a Thursday, within the division.

Atlanta is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs Carolina.

Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games

Atlanta is 7-2 ATS past 9 games as the underdog.

Carolina is 3-10 SU in their last 13 divisional games

Carolina is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Thursday.

Carolina is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as the favorite

UNDER is 18-7 Atlanta’s last 25 games at Carolina

Pittsburgh +4 at Baltimore Total 48 | Matchup Report

If you want to bet this game OVER, don’t read any further because all the trends point UNDER. Both teams have been winning and covering, with the Steelers biting hard as underdogs in recent years (10-2-1 ATS past 13 times). Baltimore is 14-4 ATS the past 18 seasons following their bye week, so beware that extra rest factor.

UNDER is 13-3 Pittsburgh’s last 16 road games

UNDER is 5-1 Pittsburgh’s last 6 games at Baltimore

UNDER is 9-3 Pittsburgh’s last 12 divisional games

UNDER is 17-6 Pittsburgh’s last 23 games played in Week 8

UNDER is 20-7 Pittsburgh’s last 27 games as the underdog.

UNDER is 8-3 Baltimore’s last 11 divisional games.

UNDER is 8-3 Baltimore’s last 11 games as the favorite

UNDER is 26-6 Pittsburgh’s last 32 Sunday road games

Pittsburgh is 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games as the underdog.

Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 divisional games.

Baltimore is 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games.

Baltimore has covered five straight in November.

Minnesota +7 at Green Bay Total 54.5 | Matchup Report

The Vikings have been terrible coming off a bye week, going 2-8 SU and ATS over the past decade. They have also been money losers at Green Bay over the past decade (3-8 ATS).

UNDER is 9-3 Minnesota’s last 12 vs Green Bay.

UNDER is 9-2 Green Bay’s last 11 divisional games

Minnesota is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games at Green Bay.

Green Bay is 8-3 ATS, 10-1 SU in their last 11 games at home

NY Jets +19.5 at Kansas City Total 48 | Matchup Report

The biggest point spread in Kansas City history was 16 points, Nov. 11, 2018 at home to Arizona and Dec. 13, 1992 home to New England. The failed to cover either time, FYI. If this line climbs a few more points to -21.5, it will be the largest Jets dog number in their history. They were +21 at New England last season, losing 30-14 to cover the spread and +20.5 also at New England back Dec. 16, 2007, losing 20-10 and also covering the spread.

So KC doesn’t cover big spreads, Jets do cover big spreads. You figure it out from here….

NY Jets are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games, and finally covered a spread in 2020 last week.

NY Jets are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 conference games.

NY Jets are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games played in Week 8.

Kansas City is 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games

Kansas City is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games

Kansas City is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 conference games.

Indianapolis -2.5 at Detroit Total 50 | Matchup Report

Colts are 10-4-1 ATS past 15 seasons following a bye week. On the road following a bye week, they have won six straight going 5-1 ATS.

Indianapolis is 1-7 SU in their last 8 road games.

OVER is 8-1 Detroit’s last 9 home games.

Detroit is 2-8-1 ATS, 2-9 SU in their last 11 games played in November.

Detroit failed to cover 7 straight Week 8 games and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 in this week of the schedule

Detroit is 1-10 SU past 11 games as home dogs.

Tennessee -6 at Cincinnati Total 54.5 | Matchup Report

The Titans have been road favorites twice in 2020, won each time, failed to cover each time. The Bengals get six points at home and if you hope that Cincy does better when the calendar flips to November, well, you would be wrong as they are 2-11 SU in their past 13 games in this month.

Tennessee is 1-5 ATS past 6 games against Cincinnati.

UNDER is 7-1 Tennessee’s last 8 games at Cincinnati.

Cincinnati is 3-21-1 SU in their last 25 games

Cincinnati is 2-11 SU in their last 13 games played in November.

Cincinnati is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as the underdog.

Las Vegas +2.5 at Cleveland Total 53.5 | Matchup Report

The Browns have played OVER in seven straight games as the favorite and the trends pushes to 10-3 over the past 13 ties. And hey, a positive Cleveland trend – the Browns are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against Las Vegas.

Las Vegas is 10-4 ATS past 14 games played in Week 8.

Cleveland is 6-18-1 ATS in their last 25 games played in November.

New England +3.5 at Buffalo Total 43 | Matchup Report

Why does this feel like a trap? Buffalo has been a far superior team yet they only lay 3.5 points? Of course, the Patriots have won 15 of 16 games here in Buffalo so maybe oddsmakers are scared, but that was Tom Brady’s Patriots, not these Patriots. Buffalo usually wins when they are favored (19-4 SU run).

New England is 15-1 SU (12-3-1 ATS) in their last 16 games at Buffalo.

New England is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 Week 8 games

New England is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 as the underdog.

Buffalo is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in November.

Buffalo is 19-4 SU in their last 23 games as the favorite.

LA Rams -4 at Miami Total 46 | Matchup Report

The Rams pounded the NFC East this season, going 4-0, but the AFC East is a different story. They are 2-12 SU vs AFC East teams and just 1-10 SU their past 11 tries against the Dolphins. Miami has been tough lately ATS, tough as an underdog and covered four straight after a bye week.

Miami is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games.

LA Rams are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games against Miami.

LA Rams are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.

LA Rams are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games vs AFC East division

Miami is 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games played in Week 8.

Miami is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as the underdog.

Miami has covered 4 straight after a bye week

LA Chargers -3 at Denver Total 44 | Matchup Report

Denver has been brutal within the division for bettors, losing 13 of 17 games ATS. The Chargers meanwhile have lost seven straight divisional games and lay three points in a divisional matchup here.

OVER is 8-3 LA Chargers’ last 11 games at Denver

LA Chargers are 0-7 SU 1-6 ATS past 7 divisional games

LA Chargers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played in November.

UNDER is 15-6 LA Chargers’ last 21 games as the favorite.

Denver is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 divisional games.

Denver is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played in Week 8.

San Francisco +3 at Seattle Total 54 | Matchup Report

The Niners have covered nicely on the road lately (9-3 ATS) and when catching points (7-1 ATS as underdogs). However they shit the bed in Seattle, going 2-10 ATS the past 12 seasons here. Can Seattle bounce back from a bad Sunday night loss? Historically they shit the nest in Week 8.

Seattle is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games played in Week 8.

Seattle is 11-2 SU in their last 13 games against San Francisco.

San Francisco is 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games against Seattle.

San Francisco is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.

San Francisco is 2-10 ATS past 12 games at Seattle.

San Francisco is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as the underdog.

Seattle is 20-7 SU in their last 27 games played in November.

New Orleans -4 at Chicago Total 44.5 | Matchup Report

The Saints have been a reliable road bet going back several years, riding 8-1 ATS past 9 and 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games on the road. Put those games on a Sunday and the streak is 14-1 ATS!

New Orleans is 7-0 SU (5-1-1 ATS) in their last 7 games played in Week 8.

UNDER is 16-6 Chicago’s last 22 home games.

Dallas +7.5 at Philadelphia Total 43.5 | Matchup Report

The Cowboys are the NFL’s only to not cover a spread in 2020. They are 0-7 ATS. They are on a 0-5 ATS road streak but are 6-2 ATS their past 8 trips to Philly. The Eagles have failed to cover the past five times as favorites.

UNDER is 10-2 Philadelphia’s last 12 games played in November.

UNDER is 9-2 Philadelphia’s last 11 home games

Dallas is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games.

Dallas is 10-2 SU in their last 12 divisional games.

Dallas is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 divisional games.

Dallas is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as the underdog.

Eagles are 6-1 SU and ATS past seven seasons before their bye week

Philadelphia is just 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 home games.

Tampa Bay -13.5 at NY Giants Total 45 | Matchup Report

Tampa Bay has been a double-digit road favorite just once in 40 years of our database (2005 at San Francisco and they lost 15-10 as 10-point favorites). So this is the biggest road number in franchise history. Meanwhile the Giants have  failed to cover 8 straight as home underdogs and that streaks stretches to 1-12 ATS over 13 games in this situation. However, the last five times the Giants were double-digit home dogs, they covered each time. If you wondered if this was the biggest home dog number in Giants history, its not – the Patriots were -14.5 here in 2007.

Giants are 6-1-1 ATS past 8 games vs Tampa Bay

OVER is 21-8 past 29 Tampa Bay road games

OVER is 12-2 past 14 Tampa games within the conference

Tampa 6-22 ATS past 28 seasons in Week 8

Giants are 5-0 ATS past 5 as double-digit home dogs

Giants are 4-26 SU past 30 games as underdogs

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.

Upcoming Games

Sep 26th, 1:00 PM

Indianapolis +3 -115

Tennessee -3 -115


Sep 26th, 1:00 PM

LA Chargers +7.5 -107

Kansas City -7.5 -107


Sep 26th, 1:00 PM

Washington +7 -102

Buffalo -7 -102


Sep 26th, 1:00 PM

Chicago +8.5 -107

Cleveland -8.5 -107


Sep 26th, 1:00 PM

Atlanta +2.5 -107

NY Giants -2.5 -107


Sep 26th, 1:00 PM

Cincinnati +6.5 -107

Pittsburgh -6.5 -107


Sep 26th, 1:00 PM

Baltimore -7.5 -110

Detroit +7.5 -110


Sep 26th, 1:00 PM

New Orleans +3 -110

New England -3 -110


Sep 26th, 1:00 PM

Arizona -6 -110

Jacksonville +6 -110


Sep 26th, 4:05 PM

Miami +1 -107

Las Vegas -1 -107


Sep 26th, 4:05 PM

NY Jets +7.5 -107

Denver -7.5 -107


Sep 26th, 4:25 PM

Tampa Bay +2.5 -110

LA Rams -2.5 -110


Sep 26th, 4:25 PM

Seattle -2.5 -107

Minnesota +2.5 -107


Sep 26th, 8:20 PM

Green Bay +3 -107

San Francisco -3 -107


Sep 27th, 8:15 PM

Philadelphia +3.5 -110

Dallas -3.5 -110


Sep 30th, 8:20 PM

Jacksonville +0.5 -116

Cincinnati -0.5 -116


Oct 3rd, 1:00 PM

Detroit +6 -110

Chicago -6 -110


Oct 3rd, 1:00 PM

Carolina +5.5 -110

Dallas -5.5 -110


Oct 3rd, 1:00 PM

NY Giants +6.5 -110

New Orleans -6.5 -110


Oct 3rd, 1:00 PM

Cleveland -1 -110

Minnesota +1 -110


Oct 3rd, 1:00 PM

Houston +16.5 -110

Buffalo -16.5 -110


Oct 3rd, 1:00 PM

Tennessee -6.5 -110

NY Jets +6.5 -110


Oct 3rd, 1:00 PM

Kansas City -6.5 -110

Philadelphia +6.5 -110


Oct 3rd, 1:00 PM

Indianapolis +2.5 -110

Miami -2.5 -110


Oct 3rd, 1:00 PM

Washington -1 -110

Atlanta +1 -110


Oct 3rd, 4:05 PM

Seattle +3.5 -110

San Francisco -3.5 -110


Oct 3rd, 4:05 PM

Arizona +6 -110

LA Rams -6 -110


Oct 3rd, 4:25 PM

Baltimore -1.5 -110

Denver +1.5 -110


Oct 3rd, 4:25 PM

Pittsburgh +6.5 -110

Green Bay -6.5 -110


Oct 3rd, 8:20 PM

Tampa Bay -3.5 -123

New England +3.5 -123